Last seen finishing down the field as a 28/1 outsider behind City Of Troy in the Juddmonte International at York but his previous effort, when pushing Auguste Rodin hardest in the Prince Of Wales’s at Royal Ascot, is no doubt a fairer reflection of his true colours. Had won a 10-furlong Group 2 on heavy ground here earlier in the year and that course experience should stand to him, but he just looks a rung or two below in terms of pure class and needs to bounce back in some style from stall one.
HAYA ZARK (Adrien Fouassier) – Stall 13
Odds: 50/1
Another ‘local’ runner with some strong Longchamp form to his name, having won this year’s Prix Ganay in April before a close third to Mqse De Sevigne the following month. Back from a break with a one-length third in 10-furlong Group 3 race so has considerable work to do and, on top of that, he only beat one home in the 2023 Arc which isn’t very inspiring ahead of his return to the top table.
FANTASTIC MOON (Sarah Steinberg) – Stall 2
Odds: 25/1
Didn’t seem to bring his A-game when beaten six and a half lengths (11th overall) in this race last year and may have recoiled after putting in a fine performance to win his trial in the Niel. Probably arrives in even better form this time after top-class win from Dubai Honour on home soil in early-September and he’s had a bit more time to prepare for the Arc. Sharp turn of foot can be blunted on bad ground so hopes pinned on the weather to some extent.
AL RIFFA (Joseph O’Brien) – Stall 9
Odds: 10/1
Always had plenty of talent, having won a seven-furlong Group 1 as a two-year-old in 2022 and his lightly-raced three-year-old campaign featured a close second to subsequent Arc hero Ace Impact in a Deauville Group 3. Has steadily found top form this season but backed up Coral-Eclipse second to City Of Troy with a runaway win upped to this trip in German Group 1 last month and that race has a strong recent record of producing Arc contenders (and winners). Dangerous to dismiss with the promise of even more to come.
SEVENNA’S KNIGHT (Andre Fabre) – Stall 12
Odds: 50/1
Something of a late-developer but has really found his niche in testing-ground staying races. Has won his last three starts at Longchamp (all over 1m7f) but was well held dropped back to this trip at Saint-Cloud in June so he’s likely to have his limitations exposed once again unless the ground comes up testing. Could be one to make the running under Mickael Barzalona.
CONTINUOUS (Aidan O’Brien) – Stall 14
Odds: 25/1
Won the Great Voltigeur and St Leger last year and, while far from disgraced in fifth, he didn’t quite have the requisite tools to match Ace Impact et al in this event 12 months ago. Not really at the same level yet this time around following narrow G3 win at the Curragh and odds-on reverse in the Prix Foy the last twice, so difficult to envisage anything but a supporting role once more.
BLUESTOCKING (Ralph Beckett) – Stall 3
Odds: 12/1
Smashing Juddmonte filly who has been a model of consistency and shaken off her nearly-horse tag from last year to win three races at four, including a couple of Group 1s. Showed guts and class to fend off Aventure in what looked a strong edition of the Prix Vermeille in mid-September and, from what looks a favourable draw, no surprise to see her at the heart of the action again having been supplemented into the race by connections as expected on Wednesday.
MQSE DE SEVIGNE (Andre Fabre) – Stall 16
Odds: 20/1
Five-year-old mare who has won Group 1 races over a mile and 10 furlongs during the past two seasons. Better than ever this time around by the looks of it but major question mark having over her stamina for this trip, which she has yet to even try. Trainer appears to have a much stronger stayer in the shape of Sosie.
LOOK DE VEGA (Carlos and Yann Lerner) – Stall 8
Odds: 5/1
One from one last year and burst into the big-time with a sparkling success on his G1 debut in the Prix du Jockey Club (extended 10 furlongs) at Chantilly in June. Put away with an Arc campaign in mind after that before returning with a rusty-looking third behind Sosie in the Niel. Pedigree suggests he wouldn’t be a cast-iron stayer at this trip on deep ground, but entitled to be much sharper for the first run in 105 days and he definitely has that X-factor so many Arc winners have possessed in years gone by. Stall eight should enable him to pick up a good early position.
SHIN EMPEROR (Yoshito Yahagi) – Stall 11
Odds: 6/1
Is this the one for Japan? It’s fair to say the overall quality of Japanese turf horses has been on the incline in recent seasons and this son of Siyouni, who was third in the Japanese Derby earlier in the year, is certainly bred for the job being a full-brother to former French Derby and Arc hero Sottsass. His prep race in the Irish Champion Stakes could hardly have gone much better, given he was a one-length third to rising star Economics, and if he handles likely softer ground and fully sees out the longer trip in the conditions, then he’s got a big form chance of delivering for a nation who still craves this coveted prize.
SUNWAY (David Menuisier) – Stall 15
Odds: 40/1
Three-year-old son of Galiway who has been admirably consistent this season but has yet to add to his two victories achieved as a juvenile. Third to Jan Brueghel in the St Leger no doubt a new career best but that raises the question about him having the requisite speed for a test like the Arc. Will cope fine if it comes up soft but Britain’s sole entry is not quite in the same league as a few of these rivals. Wide draw also makes life tough.
DELIUS (Jean-Claude Rouget) – Stall 7
Odds: 10/1
Unraced as a juvenile but made up for lost time in the spring/summer with three straight wins before fast-finishing third behind Sosie in the Grand Prix de Paris here in July. Produced another eyecatching run when splitting Sosie and Look De Vega in the Prix Niel and a strongly-run race on testing ground would probably bring about further improvement. Very hard to leave from calculations.
SOSIE (Andre Fabre) – Stall 5
Odds: 5/1
By the great Sea The Stars and out of a half-sister to 10-furlong G1 winner Sortilege, Sosie is bred to be a bit special and he’s fulfilling his potential as a three-year-old having only raced twice (one win) as a juvenile. Third to Look De Vega in the Prix du Jockey Club but improvement since stepped up to 12 furlongs and he seems to come alive at Longchamp, making it 3-3 here in the Prix Niel when Look De Vega was behind in third. Doesn’t do anything too flashily, but trained by a master and he looks the real deal so obvious claims from handy draw in five.
LOS ANGELES (Aidan O’Brien) – Stall 10
Odds: 6/1
Strapping son of Camelot who had a perfect 2-2 record last year including a 10-furlong Group 1 win on very soft ground in France. Hasn’t done much wrong this time around either, winning three races, finishing third in the Derby and fourth in Irish Champion Stakes dropped back in distance earlier this month. Perhaps drawn a shade wider than ideal but he will be much happier back up in trip and he’s fine on all types of ground so every right to be in the thick of things.
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SURVIE (Nicolas Clement) – Stall 6
Odds: 66/1
Two from two last year and she’s had a decent summer, gained a deserved success in course and distance Group 2 after a head second to Sparkling Plenty in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly. Not at the same level when resuming in the Prix Vermeille recently but perhaps connections had left plenty to work on fitness-wise. That will need to be the case but not only that – she’s got to take her form up another 7-10lb just to be competitive in a race of this nature against the colts.
AVENTURE (Christophe Ferland) – Stall 4
Odds: 16/1
Consistent and high-class filly with stamina assured so every right to take up her place in this field, especially after improving her form again to finish second in the Vermeille. Split two classy older British rivals that day in Bluestocking and Emily Upjohn and it would be a mistake to suggest she’s now reached her peak.
VERDICT
LOS ANGELES
Delius
Sevenna’s Knight
Sosie
The market has Sosie and Look De Vega about right but Delius, who split that pair in the Prix Niel, could be the surprise package among the home team and it would be no shock to see him produce another personal best to trouble them all.
However, the form of the Irish Champion Stakes is typically well worth respecting and while Shin Emperor finished just in front of LOS ANGELES on that occasion, the latter is preferred over a mile and a half on ground that could still have some juice in it come Sunday afternoon.
Aidan O’Brien’s Irish Derby hero has been a touch underestimated this year given all the clamour around stablemate City Of Troy and he looks to possess all the right qualities to put up a bold show back in France, where he starred in a back-end Group 1 when still a very raw colt at two.
Sevenna’s Knight is one who could sit prominently and hang in there for a place at a huge price.
Updated at 1135 BST on 04/10/24
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