The Dolphins (2-6) travel across the country to play the Rams on “Monday Night Football.”
Here’s how I would bet on the contest.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | +2.5 (-106) | +120 | o48.5 (-115) |
| Rams | -2.5 (-114) | -142 | u48.5 (-105) |
Miami’s offense is kicking again. With Tua Tagovailoa back under center, the Dolphins have scored 27 points in back-to-back games against the Cardinals and Bills.
Unfortunately, the Fins lost both games. They have lost three consecutive one-score games by 10 total points.
I expect that luck in close games to flip, but I don’t expect it to happen on Monday night at SoFi Stadium.
The Dolphins rank 28th among NFL stop units in Defensive DVOA, including 27th against the pass. Jalen Ramsey is playing great as the top cornerback, but the entire secondary ranks 28th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, and that’s a problem now that Matthew Stafford’s receivers are all healthy — slot corner Kader Kohou could get repeatedly burned by Cooper Kupp if that’s how the matchups shake out.
Stafford’s had an up-and-down season, but he was spectacular against the Vikings two weeks ago and almost cracked the 300-yard mark in a win against the Seahawks last week. Over the two weeks, he completed 50-of-77 passes (64 percent) for 580 yards and six scores.
When push comes to shove, I don’t trust Tagovailoa as much as I trust Stafford, especially in big-time games.
For example, the Dolphins have lost five consecutive prime-time games with Tagovailoa starting.
Another example: The Dolphins have lost eight consecutive road games against winning teams with Tagovailoa under center.
It’ll be more challenging for Tagovailoa to out-duel Stafford if Tyreek Hill isn’t 100 percent — Miami’s top wideout is currently listed as questionable for Monday night’s matchup.
Recommendation: Rams -2.5 (-114, FanDuel)
Still, the Dolphins should move the ball on the Rams defense — with or without Hill.
The Rams’ front seven are exceedingly young, as the front office drafted several linemen in an attempt to replace Aaron Donald. While Jared Verse is playing lights-out football, the whole stop unit ranks 20th among NFL defenses in pass-rush win rate.
That’s a problem against Tagovailoa, who struggles under pressure (45.3 PFF Passing grade) but is near-perfect from a clean one (80.3 PFF Passing grade).
With left tackle Terron Armstead playing the best football of his career, Tagovailoa should have plenty of time to dissect a Rams secondary that ranks 30th in PFF’s Coverage grades.
One guy to watch is Miami running back De’Von Achane. He’s scored at least 23 fantasy points in all four games with Tagovailoa this season while averaging seven in every other game. He’s become a scary pass-catching option out of the backfield, which is quite useful in Mike McDaniel’s offense.
I’m backing the Rams to come out on top eventually, but I fully expect a high-scoring, back-and-forth, pass-happy “Monday Night Football” barn burner.
Recommendation: Over 48.5 (-115, FanDuel)
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.
