Which schools are built to win a national championship in the first 12-team College Football Playoff?
That was the question we asked when formulating Sporting News Preseason Top 25. We had a Way-Too-Early Top 25 in January before Alabama coach Nick Saban retired and an Updated Way-Too-Early Top 25 before spring practice. The portal is closed. Fall camps will be here before you know it, and it will be an unprecedented season given the impact of realignment.
The SEC and Big Ten are at the heart of those changes. A total of 15 teams in our Preseason Top 25 are from those two conferences, including eight top-10 teams. How will tougher conference schedules impact those schools’ playoff chances? Will the wear-and-tear make it harder to make a playoff run? Do Big 12, ACC and Group of 5 schools stand a chance?
At least in the preseason, two schools are built for that run. Georgia is loaded under Kirby Smart, and the return of quarterback Carson Beck will help. Ohio State had a busy offseason in response to Michigan’s national championship run in 2023. Where does Alabama fit in without Saban? We will find out this season.
Here is a look at Sporting News’ Preseason Top 25.
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2023 record: 13-1
The Bulldogs are 42-2 the last three seasons and were a rough half in the SEC championship game away from earning a third straight CFP berth under Kirby Smart. The program lost 24 players to the transfer portal, including standout linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson. Yet another wave of NFL-ready talent is here. Carson Beck returns at quarterback. He led returning FBS quarterbacks with 3,941 passing yards in 2023. Florida transfer running back Trevor Etienne averaged 5.9 yards per carry the last two years, and Miami transfer receiver Colbie Young joins a group of receivers that includes Rara Thomas, Dominic Lovett and Dillon Bell. The defense features All-American safety Malachi Starks and linebackers Smael Mondon and Mykel Williams. The opener vs. Clemson in Atlanta (Aug. 31) precedes road games at Alabama (Sept. 28), Texas (Oct. 19) and Ole Miss (No. 6). Georgia has a tougher schedule than Ohio State, but will that matter?
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2023 record: 11-2
Perhaps no other program is in “national championship or bust” mode given the aggressive moves under Ryan Day this offseason. The Buckeyes landed Kansas State quarterback Will Howard and Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins – who had 1,158 rushing yards and 15 TDs last season – out of the portal. Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson will be a prolific backfield under new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who left UCLA in a surprise move. The defense added Alabama safety Caleb Downs after several key pieces – including Denzel Burke, Tyleik Williams, Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau – opted to return from a unit that allowed 11.2 points per game. The Buckeyes have road trips to Oregon (Oct. 12) and Penn State (Nov. 2) that precede an all-in finale against Michigan (Nov. 30). The Buckeyes have not lost four in a row to the Wolverines since 1988-91. That is the pressure point.
MORE: Where Ohio State QBs stand after spring game
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2023 record: 12-2
Steve Sarkisian has Texas ready for the spotlight of the SEC. The Longhorns benefitted from the return of quarterback Quinn Ewers, and backup Arch Manning did not enter the transfer portal. That gives Texas the strongest QB room in the country. C.J. Baxter, Johntay Cook and Ryan Wingo will become stars in this offense, and Ewers has protection from tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. Alabama transfers Isaiah Bond and tight end Amari Niblack are part of a revamped receiving room. Sophomore linebacker Anthony Hill and Clemson safety Andrew Mukuba are key pieces on a defense that will have to rebuild a strong interior. The move to the SEC means a blockbuster schedule, too, and that starts with a trip to Michigan (Sept. 7) in non-conference play. The Red River Rivalry continues in a new time slot against Oklahoma (Oct. 12), and the Longhorns host Georgia (Oct. 19). Of course, the renewal of the rivalry with Texas A&M (Nov. 30) will be huge. It’s a loaded schedule, but the Longhorns have the talent to make a run at a SEC championship in Year 1.
MORE: The top 25 college football quarterbacks for 2024
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2023 record: 12-2
Does Oregon belong in the national championship weight class with third-year coach Dan Lanning? There are several encouraging signs. The Ducks have continuity in their coaching staff with the return of offensive coordinator Will Stein and co-defensive coordinators Tosh Lupoi and and Junior Adams. Dillon Gabriel – a sixth-year quarterback – transferred from Oklahoma and replaced Bo Nix. Texas A&M transfer Evan Stewart and Tez Johnson are legit vertical threats in the offense, and left tackle Josh Conerly Jr. leads a strong offensive line. The defense added six transfers, including Washington cornerback Jabbar Muhammad. Oregon, Georgia and Notre Dame were the only three FBS schools that ranked in the top 10 in scoring offense and scoring defense last season. That combination will play well for the Ducks through a Big Ten against a schedule that features Ohio State (Oct. 12) and Michigan (Nov. 2) before the regular-season finale against Washington (Nov. 30).
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2023 record: 10-3
Irish coach Marcus Freeman enters Year 3 with a veteran team. Notre Dame hired Mike Denbrock from LSU as the new offensive coordinator. He is paired with Duke transfer Riley Leonard, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury and underwent a follow-up procedure in the spring. Notre Dame added Clemson’s Beaux Collins, FIU’s Kris Mitchell and Marshall’s Jayden Harrison to a talented receiver room that includes Jaden Greathouse and Jordan Faison. Running back Jeremiyah Love will see an increased role. Al Golden is back at defensive coordinator, and the defense has seven graduate students who are projected to start. That includes All-American safety Xavier Watts and defensive tackle Howard Cross III. Cornerback Benjamin Morrison also is a first-round talent. Duke transfer RJ Oben and Arizona State safety Jordan Clark are new pieces. The opener at Texas A&M (Aug. 31) and home games against Louisville (Sept. 28) and Florida State (Nov. 9) are highlights of the independent schedule. Remember, Notre Dame cannot earn a first-round bye in this playoff format.
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2023 record: 11-2
The Rebels are 34-15 since Lane Kiffin took over – which is the ninth-best record among Power 4 schools since 2020. That comes with a 7-8 record against top-25 teams. Ole Miss is coming off a strong season that ended with a Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl victory against Penn State. Kiffin has earned the reputation as the “The Portal King” for good reason, but the Rebels did lose Judkins to Ohio State. Kiffin still added eight players via the transfer portal from other SEC schools, including Florida edge rusher Princely Umanmielen, who had seven sacks in 2023. Quarterback Jaxson Dart returns and could work into the fringes of the Heisman Trophy conversation, and Ole Miss rebuilt the offensive line with three transfers. The Rebels play at LSU (Oct. 12) and have home games against Oklahoma (Oct. 26) and Georgia (Nov. 9). Ole Miss has yet to play in the SEC championship game. Is this the year?
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2023 record: 13-1
The Seminoles were snubbed from the CFP after winning the ACC last season, but that does not diminish what coach Mike Norvell has accomplished. Florida State stayed busy in the transfer portal with 17 additions. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei — a former Clemson quarterback who played at Oregon State last season – has pro potential, but he’ll need to show it in an offense that added Alabama running back Roydell Williams to pair with Lawrance Toafili. Sophomore receiver Hykeem Williams will be a breakout star this year. Edge rusher Patrick Payton and Georgia transfer Marvin Jones will lead an aggressive defense. Florida State led the ACC in scoring offense (34.6) and scoring defense (15.9) in 2023. The season-opener against Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland, on Aug. 24 opens a schedule that includes Clemson (Oct. 5), Miami (Oct. 26), Notre Dame (Nov. 9) and Florida (Nov. 30).
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2023 record: 15-0
Michigan won the program’s first national championship since 1997, and Jim Harbaugh left for the Los Angeles Chargers before the Wolverines sent 13 players to the 2024 NFL Draft. That has led to varied predictions for where Michigan will be with first-year coach Sherrone Moore, but the style of play will not change much. New offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell must find a replacement for quarterback J.J. McCarthy, and that answer likely will be Alex Orji. McCarthy and Blake Corum combined for 30 rushing TDs last season. That means this is a huge year for Donovan Edwards as the lead back. Moore also hired Wink Martindale as the new defensive coordinator, and that side features first-round talent in defensive linemen Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant and cornerback Will Johnson. Michigan’s opponents had a .624 winning percentage last season. Texas (Sept. 7), USC (Sept. 21) and Oregon (Nov. 2) coming to the Big House and road trips to Washington (Oct. 5) and Ohio State (Nov. 30). A 10-2 or even 9-3 record against that schedule would be playoff worthy.
2023 record: 12-2
Nick Saban retired on Jan. 10, which set off a series of changes for the most-dominant program of the College Football Playoff era. Alabama hired Kalen DeBoer, who had a 37-9 record between Fresno State and Washington the last four seasons. Saban was 49-6 in the same four-year stretch. It’s an endless shadow, but DeBoer can work with the talent in Tuscaloosa. He hired offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan and defensive coordinator Kane Wommack – who ran a 4-2-5 defense at South Alabama. How will DeBoer contribute to the development of Jalen Milroe – who led all returning Power 4 quarterbacks with a 172.7 passer rating last season? Jam Miller and Justice Hayes are a backfield that the Crimson Tide can lean on, and there are freshman impact players on both sides of the ball in receivers Caleb Odom and Ryan Williams and cornerback Zabien Brown. Alabama has road games at Wisconsin (Sept. 14), LSU (Nov. 9) and Oklahoma (Nov. 23) and home games against Georgia (Sept. 28), Tennessee (Oct. 19) and Missouri (Oct. 26). DeBoer faces impossible expectations, but a playoff run would be a good start.
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2023 record: 10-3
Brian Kelly is 20-7 with back-to-back 10-win seasons at LSU (and seven straight overall dating back to his days at Notre Dame), and yet he continues to be under intense scrutiny. The defense allowed 28.0 points per game in 2023, and the Tigers hired Missouri defensive coordinator Blake Baker to overhaul that unit. Linebackers Harold Perkins and Greg Penn III are good starting points. Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock left for Notre Dame, and Kelly promoted Joe Sloan and Cortez Hankton to co-offensive coordinators. Garrett Nussmeier finally gets a chance to start at quarterback, and he’s working with a pair of transfer receivers in Liberty’s CJ Daniels and Mississippi State’s Zavion Thomas. The good news is the protection is sound with a pair of future NFL first-round picks in Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. LSU opens with USC at Allegiant Stadium and has home games against Ole Miss (Oct. 12), Alabama (Nov. 9) and Oklahoma (Nov. 30). That is a friendly schedule knowing the Tigers are 13-1 at Tiger Stadium under Kelly.
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2023 record: 11-2
Eli Drinkwitz led Missouri to a break-through season in 2023 that included a 14-3 victory against Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl Classic. The Tigers lost defensive coordinator Blake Baker to LSU, and he was replaced by South Alabama defensive coordinator Corey Batoon. Missouri picked up 15 players via the transfer portal, including Appalachian State running back Nate Noel and Miami linebacker Corey Flagg Jr. The return of receiver Luther Burden III is good news for quarterback Brady Cook, too. Missouri’s first four games are at home, and October tests at Texas A&M (Oct. 5) and Alabama (Oct. 26) will be telling. Oklahoma (Nov. 9) visits Faurot Field in a renewal of an old Big 12 matchup. The Tigers are 1-7 against top-10 teams under Drinkwitz. That is the next prove-it point for the program.
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2023 record: 10-3
The James Franklin era began with the four-team CFP, and the Nittany Lions were 88-39 the last 10 seasons. Now, they are in a format where that success would make the program a playoff mainstay. Franklin reshuffled coordinators by hiring Kansas’ Andy Kotelnicki on offense and former Indiana coach Tom Allen to run the defense. Quarterback Drew Allar passed for 2,631 yards, 25 TDs and two interceptions, and Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 1,654 yards and 14 TDs. Abdul Carter switched to defensive end this offseason, and the unit added Georgia transfer cornerback AJ Harris. Penn State opens at West Virginia (Aug. 31), and the Big Ten schedule will be defined by marquee games against USC (Oct. 12) and Ohio State (Nov. 2). The Nittany Lions are 1-9 against the Buckeyes in the last 10 meetings. Will Franklin be able to flip the big-game narrative once and for all and lead a playoff run. This ranking puts Penn State in that discussion.
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2023 record: 9-4
Josh Heupel has brought stability to Tennessee with a 27-12 record the last three years, which is an accomplishment on its own. The Vols lost 15 players to the transfer portal, but they also brought in nine players, including Notre Dame tight end and Tulane receiver Chris Brazzell II. There is high optimism around sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who showed his dual-threat upside in the 35-0 victory against Iowa in the Cheez-It Bowl. Dylan Sampson – who rushed for 605 yards and seven TDs – has an opportunity at lead back, and receivers Squirrel White and Bru McCoy return for an offense that averaged 31.8 points per game in 2023. James Pearce Jr. – who had 10 sacks in 2023 – is in the conversation to be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Early-season tests against NC State (Sept. 7) and Oklahoma (Sept. 21) are tough, and Tennessee retained all three traditional SEC rivals in Florida (Oct. 12), Alabama (Oct. 19) and Georgia (Nov. 16).
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2023 record: 9-4
The Tigers were 5-0 after the now-famous Tyler from Spartanburg call, and this will be a pivotal year for Clemson with the new playoff format given Dabo Swinney’s views on the transfer portal. The Tigers lost 12 players to the portal. It’s also a big year for second-year starter Cade Klubnik, who had 2,844 passing yards, 19 TDs and nine interceptions. Phil Mafah (965 yards, 13 TDs) is a solid lead back, but who emerges as the lead receiver? The defense will be tough as usual with a front seven that features defensive end T.J. Parker, linebacker Barrett Carter and safety R.J. Mickens. It does not get much more visible than an opener against Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game on Aug. 31. The Bulldogs have won seven of the last eight meetings dating back to 1991. The Oct. 5 trip to Florida State also is a save-the-date game in the ACC race for the Tigers.
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2023 record: 8-5
Kyle Whittingham enters his 20th season at Utah with a tremendous opportunity in the Big 12. The Utes flirted with College Football Playoff contention in the four-team setup. Can Utah make that a reality now? Cam Rising returns after missing all of last season recovering from a knee injury. He averaged 2,763 passing yards and 482 rushing yards from 2021-22. The Utes added USC receiver Dorian Singer and Georgia Tech defensive back Kenan Johnson through the portal. The Utes get Arizona (Sept. 28) and TCU (Oct. 19) at home, and Oklahoma State (Sept. 21) will be a barometer to test that CFP viability. Utah went 8-5 in its first season in the Pac-12 back in 2011, and is coming off an 8-5 season. This is a better program now, and they are the steady pick to win a wide-open Big 12 in 2024.
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2023 record: 9-4
Chris Kleiman is 19-8 the last two seasons at Kansas State, and that includes a 13-5 record in Big 12 play. Will the Wildcats be the team to beat in the new-order Big 12? That might depend on quarterback Avery Johnson – who offered a glimpse of that high-end talent with 178 passing yards, 71 rushing yards and three TDs in the Pop-Tarts Bowl victory against NC State. Johnson fills the void left by Will Howard, who transferred to Ohio State. He also will be working with new coordinator Matt Wells, who replaces Collin Klein. DJ Giddens rushed for 1,226 yards and 10 TDs last season and Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards adds depth. Linebacker Austin Moore – who has 11.5 tackles for loss – leads a defense that returns 11 upperclassmen. September is tough, with home matchups against Arizona (Sept. 14) and Oklahoma State (Sept. 28) and a road trip to BYU (Sept. 21). The Wildcats have won 15 straight against Kansas – and that matchup is home on Oct. 26. A Big 12 championship run is possible.
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2023 record: 10-3
The Wildcats averaged 38.7 points per game through a seven-game winning streak to end last season. How much of that momentum will carry over with first-year coach Brent Brennan, who replaced Jedd Fisch? Quarterback Noah Fifita – who was 5-2 against ranked teams last season – has one of the best big-play receivers in the FBS in Tetairoa McMillan. Quali Conley – who had 842 rushing yards and nine TDs last season – followed Brennan from San Jose State. Linebacker Jacob Manu – who had 116 tackles – also is back. This is the most preseason hype for Arizona since the “Desert Swarm” years in 1993-94. September road games at Kansas State (Sept. 13) – which is a Friday night game – and Utah (Sept. 28) are part of a tough Big 12 introduction. This is a Big 12 contender with upside.
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2023 record: 10-3
Are the Sooners under-valued here? Oklahoma averaged 41.7 points per game in 2023 under second-year coach Brent Venables. The Sooners lost Dillon Gabriel to the portal, but sophomore Jackson Arnold gained enough experience as a freshman. Leading rusher Gavin Sawchuk averaged 6.2 yards per carry, and Purdue transfer Deion Burks could have a breakout season. The offensive line also features three transfers. How will new offensive coordinator Seth Littrell piece that together? Linebacker Danny Stutsman – who had 104 tackles and 16 tackles for loss – bypassed the 2024 NFL Draft. The Sooners made improvements on that side in 2023. Oklahoma’s first four games are at home, and that culminates with a SEC opener against Tennessee (Sept. 21). Texas (Oct. 12), Ole Miss (Oct. 26), Missouri (Nov. 9), Alabama (Nov. 23) and LSU (Nov. 30) all are on a welcome-to-the-SEC-schedule. It’s one of the toughest in the country.
2023 record: 10-4
Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy has led the Cowboys to 18 consecutive winning seasons, and now the chance to take over as the resident Big 12 power exists with Oklahoma and Texas off to the SEC. Will the Cowboys take advantage of that? Quarterback Alan Bowman returned for a seventh season, and Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon – who rushed for 1,732 yards and 21 TDs – returned after briefly entering the transfer portal. Still, Oklahoma State needs to be better than a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 offense in order to make that move. Linebacker Nickolas Bowman – who had 140 tackles – also returned. Home games against Arkansas (Sept. 7), Utah (Sept. 21) and a road trip to Kansas State (Sept. 28) highlight a challenging first month of the season. The Cowboys have lost three of their last five trips to Manhattan.
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2023 record: 10-4
Second-year coach Jeff Brohm could have a claim as the “Portal King.” He’s added 56 players through the transfer portal the last two seasons, and Louisville is coming off an ACC championship game appearance. The portal haul includes Texas Tech quarterback Tyler Shough, Miami running back Donald Chaney, South Alabama receiver Caullin Lacy and Alabama receiver Ja’Corey Brooks. Top running back Peny Boone transferred to UCF after the spring. Shough – who has 36 TDs and 17 interceptions between five seasons at Oregon and Texas Tech – might be able to unlock that NFL potential with Brohm. Ashton Gillotte had 11 sacks last season and leads the defense. The schedule hinges on three tough road games at Notre Dame (Sept. 28), Clemson (Nov. 2) and Kentucky (Nov. 30).
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2023 record: 8-5
Lincoln Riley is 19-8 the last two seasons at USC, but he enters Year 3 with the same-old narratives. USC averaged 41.6 points per game the last two seasons, and new quarterback Miller Moss takes control of that offense. Mississippi State transfer Jo’quavious Marks – who averaged 4.6 yards per carry the last four seasons – is the new running back. Zachariah Branch and Duce Robinson will have increased roles. The question remains the defense – which has allowed an average of 31.8 points per game the last two years. That would have ranked last in the Big Ten in 2023. Will D’Anton Lynn, who was hired from UCLA, be able to fix that against a loaded schedule that features Michigan (Sept. 21) and Penn State (Oct. 12) in Big Ten play and LSU (Sept. 1) and Notre Dame (No. 30) in non-conference play?
MORE: Don’t blame USC if they try to lighten its non-conference schedule
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2023 record: 14-1
Washington is a tough team to rank. The Huskies lost 10 players to the 2024 NFL Draft, including first-round picks Michael Penix Jr., Rome Odunze and Troy Fautanu. DeBoer is gone, too, and Jedd Fisch had to rebuild the roster and transition to the Big Ten. That starts with between eight-to-10 starters that came from the transfer portal, including quarterback Will Rogers. He has 94 career TD passes. Arizona transfer Jonah Coleman had 871 rushing yards and five TDs with Fisch last season, and Cal transfer Jeremiah Hunter Jr. had 731 receiving yards and seven TDs. The defense will need to rebuild its pass rush, too. The schedule features a Sept. 14 Apple Cup matchup against Washington State and is friendly for the most part. Michigan (Oct. 5) and USC (Nov. 2) visit Husky Stadium, but the road games against Iowa (Oct. 12), Penn State (Nov. 9) and the regular-season finale at Oregon (Nov. 30) will test that new-look roster.
2023 record: 9-4
Could the Jayhawks crack the 12-team College Football Playoff in the new-look Big 12 under Lance Leipold? Jalon Daniels has played in just 12 games the last two seasons, but he should thrive with new offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes. The return of running back Devin Neal (1,280 yards, 16 TDs) forms arguably the best backfield in the conference. Kansas ranked second in pass defense in the Big 12 last year, too. There is still reason to be cautious knowing the Jayhawks are 8-10 in Big 12 play the last two seasons and the front half of the schedule features road trips to Illinois, West Virginia and Arizona. Kansas also has four games at Arrowhead Stadium against TCU, Houston, Colorado and Iowa State. How will all that travel affect an up-and-coming program?
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2023 record: 9-4
We had Georgia Tech here in the Way-Too-Early versions, but the Yellow Jackets lost 21 players in the transfer portal. Dave Doeren has maintained consistency with the Wolfpack, who added Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall for this season. He completed 16 of 20 passes for 205 yards and a TD in the spring game – and that efficiency will be a difference maker. Davin Vann – who had 5.5 sacks last season – could emerge as one of the best interior defensive lineman in the country. NC State has a front-loaded schedule with a matchup against Tennessee in Charlotte on Sept. 7 and a trip to Clemson on Sept. 21. Will Doeren deliver his first 10-win season with the Wolfpack?
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2023 record: 7-6
Is this too soon for first-year coach Mike Elko? The Aggies are 20-17 since finishing 9-1 in the COVID-19 impacted 2020 season. The Aggies had 28 players come in via the transfer portal, and that kind of roster renovation has worked for programs such as TCU and Louisville in recent seasons. Edge rusher Nic Scourton – who had 10 sacks and 15 tackles for loss for Purdue last season – is one of those players. Texas A&M also hired offensive coordinator Collin Klein away from Kansas State, and he will be quarterback Conner Weigman’s third coordinator in three seasons. Receivers Jahdae Walker and Moose Muhammad need to emerge in this offense, too. Home games against Notre Dame and Texas book-end a schedule that does not have Alabama or Georgia on it.
