The first couple weeks of the 2024 NFL season went swimmingly for the Chiefs and Saints. Kansas City’s drive for a three-peat looked alive and well and New Orleans appeared to be the bounce-back team of the year.
Things look a bit different as these squads prepare to face each other at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The Chiefs have lost multiple key offensive weapons, with running back Isiah Pacheco and wideout Rashee Rice joining receiver Hollywood Brown on IR. The Saints, meanwhile, have gone from 2-0 with a +72 point differential to 2-2, with just 182.5 passing yards per game over the past two weeks.
MORE WEEK 5: Best bets, top props | DFS sleepers, values
Thus, what initially looked like a potential Super Bowl preview in primetime might be nothing more than a solid interconference game. The Big Game this February will be in New Orleans — it just might not feature the Saints playing in it.
The Chiefs remain the favorites to win Super Bowl 59, however, and there’s still plenty of star power in this game including reigning two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes, All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, Pro Bowl wideout Chris Olave, and early Offensive Player of the Year candidate Alvin Kamara.
Both squads will be hungry for a big W in this one, and we can’t wait to lock in some bets on Sports Interaction. Here’s the Sporting News betting preview and prediction for Chiefs vs. Saints on Monday Night Football.
All odds and data courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Kansas City opened as a -5.5 favorite and never budged despite Rashee Rice being moved to IR as Chiefs fans feared. That tells us that this line is exactly where oddsmakers want it to be, and that bettors are running with it exactly how sportsbooks want them to run with it.
For a change, we’re actually going with the home favorite against the spread. Too much is being made of Kansas City being injury-ravaged and going up against a powerhouse offense, while too little is being put on KC being 4-0, having the best QB in the NFL, and wielding a top-five defense.
The casual bettors come out of the woodwork on Monday Night Football, and this week they have driven the action overwhelmingly on the road-underdog Saints. At last glance, well over 60 percent of SIA moneyline and spread bets have been on New Orleans.
That just seems misguided. Bettors seem to be trying to capitalize on the all-too-frequent trend of underdogs winning or covering in primetime, which typically makes sense…but not when Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Arrowhead Stadium are involved. Kansas City has won 10 straight games (including the playoffs)!
What have the Saints done lately to suggest they can knock off a two-time MVP on his own turf? New Orleans lost to Philadelphia 15-12 in the Bayou two Sundays ago, then let the Falcons put 26 points on the board last week.
How can Derek Carr and the “Who Dat?” boys limit mistakes against Chris Jones and company in Chop Nation? How will the Saints D avoid Mahomes’ magic on Monday Night Football?
It feels like the antithesis of the typical primetime game, but these Chiefs always manage to defy logic, reason, and statistical trends. Bet against Mahomes, Kelce, and the rest of the Andy Reid bunch at your own risk. We’re riding with Taylor Swift and rooting for the reigning champs tonight.
Our Pick: Chiefs -5.5 (-110)
Another trend we’ve picked up on since these lines opened last week: bettors have overwhelmingly pounded the UNDER. Again, that’s usually the right move on Monday Night Football — when the lines are exaggerated. But 43!? That’s nothing! This OVER feels ripe for the picking.
Think about what the score would need to be for this game to end up at 43 total points. The implied final score is around 25-18. That’s probably because KC has held the Falcons and Chargers to a combined 27 points over the past two weeks, but that was before Kirk Cousins and Atlanta woke up, and the Bolts are several notches below New Orleans offensively.
The Saints have scored 127 points through four weeks, and they’re coming off a 26-24 loss to Atlanta last Sunday. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has enjoyed an extra day to prepare for this massive game, so we don’t expect New Orleans to lay an egg and be held to the teens in scoring. Bet the OVER on the game, or the OVER on the Saints’ team total.
Our Pick: OVER 43 (-110), or Saints OVER 18.5 (-120)
Final score prediction: Chiefs 27, Saints 20
The Chiefs put a lot of pressure on opposing QBs, and as a result those QBs often dump the ball over the middle to their tight ends. No team has surrendered more completions (30) or receiving yards (365) to TEs than Kansas City this season.
And with Saints Swiss Army knife Taysom Hill ruled out of this one with a rib injury, Johnson will have plenty of opportunities to rack up some yards. Seventeen yards!? Johnson averages 9.75 yards per catch, so quick math tells us he only needs a couple grabs to hit that mark.
With the implied score suggesting New Orleans will be playing from behind, bet on Johnson to easily exceed this low-bar number.
Everyone and their mom will be betting on Travis Kelce to score a touchdown, which feels like a sucker’s bet against a Saints team that has allowed zero TDs to tight ends in 2024. Don’t be a sheep, peeps!
The diamond-in-the-rough player prop for the Chiefs’ offense is JuJu catches. The veteran, who caught two balls for 17 yards and a TD last week in Atlanta, will more than likely operate in the short and midrange areas of the field like fallen teammate Rashee Rice.
JuJu has plenty of experience with Mahomes, as this is his second stint in Kansas City. Kelce can’t catch all the balls, nor can perennially underwhelming veteran Justin Watson. Both these props come with a little juice, but they’re also the SIA player props most likely to hit on MNF.
