The Champions League continues with a new format – but what do the teams need to qualify for the knockout rounds of the competition?
Instead of the traditional eight groups of four – with the top two from each group qualifying for the last 16 – a new ‘Swiss-style’ 36-league format has been introduced this season, with clubs sure to be looking at the mathematics.
The top eight sides in the league will qualify automatically for the last 16, while the teams finishing in ninth to 24th place will compete in a two-legged play-off against each other to join the top eight teams in that round of the competition.
The bottom 12 teams – from 25th to 36th – will be eliminated with no access to the Europa League.
So to avoid an early elimination – how many points do you need? And what about the number needed to skip the play-off round and finish in the top eight?
The Opta supercomputer believes 16 points from a possible 24 – so five wins and a draw from eight matches, or other combinations – would almost certainly be enough to finish in the top eight, which guarantees you a last-16 spot in the new year.
The data also believes 15 points – so five wins from eight games, or other combinations – could be enough to sneak into eighth place, with that points tally being enough in 73 per cent of Opta’s 50,000 simulations of the league phase.
Fourteen points, so four wins and two draws, is unlikely to be enough for a top-eight finish – so the race to five wins is likely to be the target for the biggest sides.
To finish in the top 24, which guarantees you a play-off spot at least, Opta believes 10 points – so three wins and a draw, or other combinations – will almost certainly guarantee you a place in that round.
Nine points – so three wins from eight games, or other combinations – could be enough to finish 24th, with that points tally being enough in 69 per cent of the simulations.
But just eight points – so two wins and two draws, or other combinations – runs the risk of elimination, with that points tally being sufficient in just 16 per cent of the simulations.
So teams will be targeting at least three wins from eight to give them the best possible chance of reaching the Champions League knockout rounds.
September 19: Atalanta 0-0 Arsenal
October 1: Arsenal 2-0 PSG
October 22: Arsenal 1-0 Shakhtar Donetsk
November 6: Inter Milan vs Arsenal, San Siro, kick-off 8pm
November 26: Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal, Jose Alvalade Stadium, kick-off 8pm
December 11: Arsenal vs Monaco, Emirates Stadium, kick-off 8pm
January 22: Arsenal vs Dinamo Zagreb, Emirates Stadium, kick-off 8pm
January 29: Girona vs Arsenal, Estadi Montilivi, kick-off 8pm
September 17: Young Boys 0-3 Aston Villa
October 2: Aston Villa 1-0 Bayern Munich
October 22: Aston Villa 2-0 Bologna
November 6: Club Brugge vs Aston Villa, Jan Breydel Stadium, kick-off 5.45pm
November 27: Aston Villa vs Juventus, Villa Park, kick-off 8pm
December 10: RB Leipzig vs Aston Villa, Red Bull Arena, kick-off 8pm
January 21: AS Monaco vs Aston Villa, Louis II Stadium, kick-off 5.45pm
January 29: Aston Villa vs Celtic, Villa Park, kick-off 8pm
September 17: AC Milan 1-3 Liverpool
October 2: Liverpool 2-0 Bologna
October 23: RB Leipzig vs Liverpool, Red Bull Arena, kick-off 8pm
November 5: Liverpool vs Bayer Leverkusen, Anfield, kick-off 8pm
November 27: Liverpool vs Real Madrid, Anfield, kick-off 8pm
December 10: Girona vs Liverpool, Estadi Montilivi, kick-off 5.45pm
January 21: Liverpool vs Lille, Anfield, kick-off 8pm
January 29: PSV Eindhoven vs Liverpool, Philips Stadium, kick-off 8pm
September 18: Man City 0-0 Inter Milan
October 1: Slovan Bratislava 0-4 Man City
October 23: Man City vs Sparta Prague, Etihad Stadium, kick-off 8pm
November 5: Sporting CP vs Man City, Jose Alvalade Stadium, kick-off 8pm
November 26: Man City vs Feyenoord, Etihad Stadium, kick-off 8pm
December 11: Juventus vs Man City, Allianz Stadium, kick-off 8pm
January 22: Paris Saint-Germain vs Man City, Parc des Princes, kick-off 8pm
January 29: Man City vs Club Brugge, Etihad Stadium, kick-off 8pm
September 18: Celtic 5-1 Slovan Bratislava
October 1: Borussia Dortmund 7-1 Celtic
October 23: Atalanta vs Celtic, Gewiss Stadium, kick-off 5.45pm
November 5: Celtic vs RB Leipzig, Celtic Park, kick-off 8pm
November 27: Celtic vs Club Brugge, Celtic Park, kick-off 8pm
December 10: Dinamo Zagreb vs Celtic, Maksimir Stadium, kick-off 5.45pm
January 22: Celtic vs Young Boys, Celtic Park, kick-off 8pm
January 29: Aston Villa vs Celtic, Villa Park, kick-off 8pm
The 2024/25 UEFA Champions League season will take place in Munich at the Allianz Arena on May 31, 2025.
