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The top-seeded Celtics look to move out to a commanding 2-0 lead over the Mavericks in Game 2 of the 2024 NBA Finals on Sunday (8:00 p.m., ABC, Sling). And while Boston now sits at a whopping -450 on the BetMGM series line, there are four high-value wagers and player props for this championship clash.
Joe Mazzulla’s Celtics were ready for their biggest test of the postseason. Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jayson Tatum led the charge against Dallas in Game 1, moving the ball effortlessly and stifling the Mavs both on the perimeter and the interior.
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Luka Doncic was very good but not otherworldly, scoring 30 on 12-of-26 shooting, while no other Mav finished with more than 14. Kyrie Irving and Derrick Jones Jr. combined to shoot 8-of-28, and Dallas had just nine total assists in the game (Luka had one).
Boston likely enters Game 2 brimming with confidence at TD Garden, where the powerhouse went 37-4 during the regular season and 7-2 this postseason. The Celtics’ -450 odds to win the championship represent an over 80-percent implied probability.
At the same time, Mazzulla’s squad shouldn’t count its chickens before they hatch — the Mavs won each quarter of the second half of Game 1, and Tatum’s issues with turnovers and forced shots appear to be back. The Celtics have also lost two of their three Game 2s so far this postseason, while the Mavs are 3-0 in Game 2s despite not having home-court advantage in any series.
So, which way will this one shake out? Let’s get to the best bets and top props for Game 2 of the 2024 NBA Finals between the Celtics and Mavericks, including the best spread, over/under, and player prop wagers from BetMGM.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. This first-quarter spread has been a nice deeper-dive ATS play all postseason, and the Celtics continue to start hot in the majority of their playoff games. They beat the Mavs 37-20 in the first frame of Game 1, and they’re now 6-1-1 in first quarters over their past eight games.
Dallas has arguably exerted much more energy than Boston so far this postseason, and Luka Doncic and company looked gassed after trying multiple times to mount comeback efforts in Game 2. It’s no surprise to anyone that Boston, the more complete and better-rested team, had more energy from start to finish on Thursday.
The Celtics also have a significant advantage at home, where they have gone 44-6 in 50 games since the start of the regular season. And Kristaps Porzingis being healthy and thriving means Boston has an added element of depth, making it a lot harder for Dallas to have its way on the interior, in the lob game, and on the glass.
The Celtics sit atop the NBA in first-quarter scoring (31.5) since the start of the 2023-24 season, while Dallas often struggles at the start of games. Take away the Mavs’ Western Conference Finals-clinching Game 5 win over Minnesota, and Dallas has been outscored 157-126 over its other five games dating back to the start of the conference championships. That’s an average plus/minus scoring margin of -6.2. Bet the Celtics to start hot once again.
FIRST QUARTER PREDICTION: Celtics 29, Mavs 25 — Boston wins the first quarter (-190) and covers the -2.5 spread (-105), and the frame finishes UNDER the projected total of 55.5 (-115).
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These two teams have been the best two defenses in the NBA since the All-Star break. Boston has been superb the whole season, especially with a healthy Porzingis. And Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington were fantastic additions to the Mavs at the deadline, even aiding the continued improvement of Dereck Lively and Derrick Jones Jr.
As a result of both squads playing solid team defense, protecting the rim well, and seldom allowing second-chance opportunities via offensive rebounds, the UNDER has gone 3-1 over their past four meetings. And while we don’t feel as confident in counting out the Celtics’ offense at home in Game 2, be confident their defense won’t let Dallas get to 106 points at TD Garden.
The Celtics have held opponents to 102 points or fewer in 10 of their 15 games this postseason. Act on the UNDER now, because sharp bettors will more than likely drive this number down by Sunday.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Celtics 109, Mavs 102 — Boston wins (-275) but Dallas barely covers the +7.5 spread (-115). Dallas goes UNDER 105.5 points (-130) and the game finishes UNDER the projected total of 214.5 points (-105).
Doncic had just one assist in Game 1, the fewest dimes he has logged in a game in which he played 20-plus minutes since May 7, 2021. That’s a terrible stat for the Mavs, who rely on him not just to score but also to create for others and increase their amount of high-percentage looks.
Expect a bounce-back in Game 2, especially with Jason Kidd most likely making adjustments after Boston blitzed Doncic outside the perimeter time after time in the series-opener. If the Celtics send doubles or charge him outside the three-point arc, it stands to reason that Luka will have open shooters.
The assists will come — Doncic put up double-digit dimes in five of his previous eight games before the Finals, and he has bested this 8.5-assist total in 12 of the Mavs’ 18 games during these playoffs. Enjoy the plus odds while they’re still there.
Hauser has been encouraged by Celtics’ stars all postseason long to keep shooting, and it paid off in Game 1 when the 26-year-old sharpshooter knocked down both of his three-point attempts and three of his four total shots from the floor.
This isn’t just a garbage-time reserve we’re talking about here — Mazzulla and the Celts consider Hauser a key part of their rotation. Even though he has struggled at times this postseason, four points with plus odds seems like way too much value to pass up.
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
| Game | Time | Moneyline | Spread | O/U |
| Mavs @ Celtics |
8:00 pm (ABC) |
BOS -275; DAL +220 |
BOS -7.5 (-105) |
214.5 |
