The 2024 NBA Finals tip off tonight in Boston, with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the Celtics looking to take an early 1-0 series lead over Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and the Mavericks (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC, Sling).
Sporting News’ BetMGM live betting blog will focus exclusively on tonight’s championship series-opener, providing live score updates, betting lines, odds, picks and advice.
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Series prediction & top props | Finals MVP best bet, value picks & sleepers
The Jays have been complemented perfectly on both sides of the floor by the supporting cast of Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, and Al Horford this postseason, and now they get Kristaps Porzingis (calf) back after being sidelined for a month. Joe Mazzulla’s squad has the best core rotation in hoops, as evidenced by its 64-win season and 12-2 run to the Finals.
However, Dallas will undoubtedly serve as Boston’s toughest challenge of the playoffs. Jason Kidd’s squad moves the ball effortlessly, shoots the lights out, alley-oops like Lob City 2.0, and plays stifling defense on the perimeter and at the rim. Luka, Kyrie, and company should be a load all series long.
The Sporting News’ betting team is here for it, in Game 1 and for the entire series. Those familiar with the SN BetMGM live blogs know how this all works, but here’s the rundown for anyone knew to the party:
Throughout the season and postseason, this live betting blog helped bettors achieve success with pregame wagers as well as live bets and props. Let’s keep the fun rolling and unveil the top BetMGM betting picks for Game 1 of the Celtics-Mavs NBA Finals!
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Total | |
| Mavs | 20 | 22 | 42 | ||
| Celtics | 37 | 26 | 63 |
This is where the Sporting News’ live betting blog will offer live updates and up-to-the-minute betting advice. Check in early and often throughout the game!
9:16 p.m.: Starting to look like a runaway. Might be a good time to start betting the OVER on some role players (we see you, Sam Hauser 8.5 at -125!)
9:00 p.m.: With the Mavs (not surprisingly) coming out a bit lackluster, they’re getting +7.5 on the spread right now. Seems like value to us!
8:30 p.m.: With Kristaps Porzingis coming off the bench, we’re even more happy we didn’t touch his over/under on points and points/rebounds/assists. And now that the market seems to be overcorrecting on him (O/U points 13.5, O/U P/R/A 21.5), it seems too low to even get value on the UNDER.
8:00 p.m.: Here’s the most heavily bet player props for Game 1 according to BetMGM (most tickets):
Lively assists feels like a fade — that’s not what Dallas needs him for, so it’s too volatile to invest in either way. Gafford OVER 1.5 blocks is the play — he has 12 blocks over the Mavs’ past four games. These KP and KI bets seem risky — Porzingis is just returning from a monthlong injury and Irving is returning to an arena that will be loaded with sauced-up boo-birds.
7:40 p.m.: According to our friends at BetMGM, bettors have been hitting the Mavs hard ahead of this series. The sportsbook said a whopping 84 percent of the series bets have gone Dallas’s way, and the Mavs also represent 69 percent of the series handle (all the money bet on this Finals matchup). Similarly, the Game 1 spread, over/under, and moneyline betting action has been dominated by the visiting team. Take a look at the respective handle percentages for each:
| Team | ATS | Handle | O/U | Handle | ML | Handle |
| Mavs @ | +6.5 | 67% | O 215.5 | 84% | +200 | 77% |
| Celtics | -6.5 | 33% | O 215.5 | 16% | -250 | 23% |
Wow — that’s either a ton of disrespect for the 64-win top seed that just went 12-2 in the Eastern Conference Playoffs, or the bettors are just planting their flags on the underdogs in hopes of big paydays. We’re with the crowd on the +6.5, but we would be shying away from a Game 1 OVER this high — and we want nothing to do with the Mavs’ moneyline.
7:25 p.m. ET: A little over an hour from tipoff, the Celtics are standing firm as solid -250 favorites while the Mavericks are getting 6.5 points on the spread. As good as Boston has been all season, it’s tough to pass up on laying the points with this Mavs team. The only value the Celtics yield against the spread is in the first quarter (-2.5) and halftime (-3.5). Even halftime gives us pause — Boston hasn’t played in 10 days and almost always has a tough quarter in the first half of an early-series game.
Here’s a complete rundown of our best bets ahead of Game 1.
Dallas has arguably exerted much more energy than Boston so far this postseason, and the Celtics have enjoyed a decent rest advantage over their Finals foes. Boston will also have the energy boost that comes with a championship-round opener at TD Garden, one of the more raucous arenas in sports.
Oh, and starting center Kristaps Porzingis is back from his month-long absence due to a heel injury — so the starting five and the Al Horford-led bench should both get a bump in offensive production. That’s fantastic news for a Celtics team that has already sat atop the NBA in first-quarter scoring (31.4) since the start of the 2023-24 season.
Dallas smashed Minnesota in the mouth in the first quarter of the series-clinching Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. But before that game, the Mavs had been outscored by the Wolves in the first frame by a collective score of 120-106. That’s a +14 first-quarter scoring margin and an average plus-minus of +3.5.
Boston turns up at this time of year. But the Green-teamers have been pretty solid all season, helping their squad go 37-4 in the regular season and 7-2 in the playoffs. With public enemy No. 1 Kyrie Irving coming back to face the fans he once pledged his allegiance to — only to leave and return with sage and logo foot-stomps — the tension will be palpable in this one and the passion should transmit to the players. Bet the Celtics to cover the 2.5-point first-quarter spread.
People love betting the OVER, especially in the playoffs and Finals. It’s more fun to root for points than it is to root for defensive stops, so sportsbooks tend to bump the projected totals up for Game 1 because they can always get away with it. As of Wednesday, a whopping 90 percent of BetMGM Game 1 over/under bettors had put their money on the OVER of 214.5.
Don’t follow the sheep, people. The Celtics have been one of the best defenses in the Association the entire season, and the Mavs turned into an elite defensive unit once they acquired Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the deadline — and Derrick Jones Jr. turned into Superman. Sure, these squads also have premier scorers — but they also probably have some rust to kick off after many days of rest leading up to this game (never mind the nerves associated with the Finals).
If you’re a little nervous about betting the UNDER, utilize the value opportunity and bet the UNDER on the alternate total of 216.5. That way, you buy an extra two points and still get in at just -130, which is very little juice considering the number you’re getting.
The Celtics have held opponents to 102 points or fewer in nine of their 14 games this postseason. The Mavs held opponents to 103 or fewer in eight of their 17. Act on the UNDER now, because this might be the highest the over/under projection will be the entire championship series.
One of the most underrated scorers and impact players on the Celtics, Derrick White has consistently come through in big moments for Boston. He hit what ultimately ended up being the game-winner of the fourth and final game of the Celtics-Pacers Eastern Conference Finals, and he should be a huge part of Game 1 if Dallas tries to blitz Tatum and Brown.
Joe Mazzulla’s squad also benefits from having Porzingis back, meaning the floor will be spaced that much better for Boston’s perimeter shooters. White has already hit three-plus three-pointers in eight of the Celts’ 14 postseason games so far, and he’s averaging 3.4 per game in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. He should easily knock down three triples, and maybe he’ll even get interviewed on the sideline to make up for being snubbed after the ECF closeout.
