Why he could win: Jackson has won this award twice already, and he’s never looked as good as he does this season. He’s on pace for career highs in passing yards (4,302) and passing touchdowns (38), and he’s only thrown three interceptions thus far. Jackson also has rushed for 678 yards through 13 games. To put that into perspective, Jackson won the award last season with 3,678 passing yards, 821 rushing yards and 29 total touchdowns. It’s usually harder for players to remain in consideration for this award after winning it because they set the bar so high. Jackson keeps raising his, and he’s leading a Ravens team that has struggled on defense and special teams. Baltimore has never needed his brilliance more.

Why he couldn’t: Derrick Henry. As special as Jackson has been this season, Henry has displayed a similar brilliance. In fact, it’s fair to argue that the Ravens rebounded from an 0-2 start largely because Henry went crazy. He averaged nearly 150 rushing yards per game during a five-game win streak that had some people talking about the Ravens as the best team in football. Some voters are likely to see the Ravens’ success as the product of a dynamic duo, not a virtuoso solo act.

Final verdict: Jackson is going to make this a close race, but Sunday’s loss to Philadelphia hurts. Another concern for him is what happens when Baltimore meets Pittsburgh again on Dec. 21. Jackson is 1-4 against the Steelers and they frustrated him in an 18-16 loss on Nov. 17. If Pittsburgh has its way with Jackson and the Ravens again, it won’t matter what his overall numbers look like.