The on-off splits are as extreme than ever, with the Nuggets completely disintegrating whenever Nikola Jokić is off the floor. Postseason runs tend to depend most on which team has the best player in the series, and depth means less as rotations shrink. But these Nuggets are pushing the limits of what Jokić, a three-time MVP, can handle on his own.

Unless Jamal Murray rounds into peak form and both of Christian Braun and Peyton Watson deliver on expectations, the Nuggets don’t deserve to rate among the top five among oddsmakers.

It’s not clear Jusuf Nurkić makes sense as a regular postseason closer, and the offensive boost of having Tyus Jones running the point may not matter against playoff opponents who’ll target him on D. That’s two of Phoenix’s five starters with real question marks—not so much now, but once pursuit of a championship begins in earnest.

The seventh-best odds reflect that concern, acknowledging the Suns’ top-end scoring talent but conceding there are real flaws with the roster that could be exposed in postseason competition. But they also rate Phoenix on par with Denver, which actually has championship experience and an in-prime MVP. That feels too charitable.

Philadelphia 76ers: +2000

It’s impossible to be confident in Joel Embiid’s health, particularly with the NBA recently fining the Sixers $100,000 for essentially not revealing the severity of his current knee issue. Philly can talk all it wants about preserving its best players for the long haul, but we need to see some indication that things are trending in the right direction. After that, the Sixers have to provide proof that they belong above teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic, neither of whom have better odds but both of whom have looked significantly better than Philly in the early part of the season.

Cleveland Cavaliers: +2200

You simply can’t have the Cavaliers behind the Sixers. Cleveland was the last undefeated team standing in the East, is getting evolved play from rising star Evan Mobley and seems totally optimized under new head coach Kenny Atkinson. The postseason questions will remain unanswered until the Cavs prove they can extend this strong start into April, but given Philly’s health concerns and general messiness so far, it’s hard to justify the order of the last two teams. The Cavaliers should rate ahead of Philadelphia.

Los Angeles Lakers: +2500

If Anthony Davis is going to sustain his MVP-caliber play, Austin Reaves continues to look unleashed under JJ Redick and the rest of the Lakers’ rotation provides enough supplementary shooting (looking at you, rookie standout Dalton Knecht), it’s possible these odds underrate the team’s championship potential.

We can’t get too far ahead of ourselves, but early returns suggest the Lakers are much closer to a top-six team in the West than many suspected. And let’s not forget the potential for a win-now trade. Los Angeles can deal two future first-rounders and three swaps if the right star shakes loose.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale.