Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
It’s revenge week in the NFL and it starts off tonight with Sean Payton returning to New Orleans to face the Saints. Also, just for the record, I think I’m the only one referring to Week 7 as revenge week, but it kind of makes sense because we have the 49ers looking for Super Bowl revenge on the Chiefs and the Bills looking to get revenge on the Titans for the Music City Miracle. Sure, that happened 25 years ago, but if something like that happened to you, you’d also spend a quarter-century plotting your revenge (You can watch the play here, it never gets old).
Anyway, we’ll be previewing the Broncos-Saints game in today’s newsletter, plus we’ll be taking a look at which coach is sitting on the hottest seat heading into Week 7.
As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the bank. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let’s get to the rundown.
1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Broncos at Saints
Nearly three years after stepping down as Saints coach, Sean Payton will be back in New Orleans to take on his old team. Back in January 2022, Payton stunned the NFL when he announced his retirement that didn’t end up being much of a retirement. Payton was only out of the NFL for one season before he came back to take the Broncos job after New Orleans agreed to trade his contract rights to Denver.
Payton was replaced in New Orleans by Dennis Allen and things aren’t going so well for him right now. The Saints have lost four games in a row after starting 2-0 and they’ll be facing a Broncos (3-3) team that has won three of its past four.
Here’s one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into tonight:
Why the Broncos can win: The Broncos have had one of best defenses in the NFL this year. Through the first six weeks, they’ve given up the fourth-fewest yards per game (284.3) and the fourth-fewest points per game (16.0). With Derek Carr doubtful, that means the Broncos defense will likely be facing Spencer Rattler, who will be making just his second career start. A rookie QB going up against Denver’s defense is almost unfair and based on that fact, the Broncos might be able to win no matter how good or bad Bo Nix and the offense play tonight.
Why the Saints can win: The Saints won’t have Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed, but they will have Alvin Kamara and that might be the one guy they need to win. The Broncos are 0-3 this year when their opponent rushes for 120 yards or more, so if Kamara has a big game, that could put the Saints in a spot to top that number. If Kamara struggles, that could be a problem, since the Saints are 0-3 when they rush for under 100 yards.
If you’re thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Alvin Kamara UNDER 107.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115): With Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both out, Kamara is the going to be the Saints’ main weapon tonight. Sean Payton coached Kamara for five seasons, so he knows what the running back is capable of and I have to think that he’s going to make sure that his defense focuses on shutting down the Saints star.
ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Wil Lutz OVER 6.5 points (-135): The Broncos offense hasn’t been great this year, but it has been good enough to give Lutz quite a few field goal opportunities. The Broncos kicker has attempted 14 field goals on the year, which is tied for the seventh-most in the NFL. Lutz is averaging 8.5 points per game this season and I think we’ll see him get near that number again tonight.
And in case you’re wondering, my props are 16-12 on the season (8-5 on kicker props and 8-7 on all other props. In related news, on three of the five kicker props I’ve missed this season, I would have gotten the pick right, but the kicker I bet on missed a field goal in the game, so there’s a 60% chance I’m jinxing Lutz right now by making him my pick for tonight.
2. Hot seat rankings heading into Week 7: NFL coaches who could soon be out of a job
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We’ve already seen one NFL coach get fired this season and it won’t be surprising if we see at least one more get canned before the end of the year. So which coaches should be worried about losing their job?
Let’s check out who’s sitting on the hottest seat heading into Week 7 (Rankings by Jeff Kerr):
If you want to know why each of these coaches made the list, you can read Jeff’s full story by clicking here. There will be a lot of pressure on Allen tonight: If Sean Payton and the Broncos blow the Saints out, that will be five losses in a row for New Orleans. If that happens, I have to think Allen will be let go at some point, although New Orleans might wait until the end of the season to make that move. Also, putting Pederson at the top of this list definitely feels right. If the Jags lose to the Patriots on Sunday, Pederson might be out of a job.
3. One trade each contender needs to make before the deadline
With the trade deadline less than three weeks away, we’ll be coming up with a lot of trade proposals between now and the Nov. 5 deadline, and that starts right now with Tyler Sullivan, who came up with one trade that each contender needs to make before the deadline.
Let’s take a look at three of the proposals on his list:
Chiefs need to trade for Panthers WR Diontae Johnson.“While the Chiefs have first-round pick Xavier Worthy and saw production from JuJu Smith-Schuster before the bye, they need another top pass-catching option for Patrick Mahomes. That’s where Johnson comes into play. Even on a poor Carolina offense, Johnson has been productive and could quickly become a top target for Mahomes.”
Steelers need to trade for Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins.“The Steelers have been in the market for a wide receiver for a while now. They were in on trying to acquire Brandon Aiyuk before he ultimately re-signed with San Francisco and were also lurking about in the Davante Adams waters before he was sent to New York. With that need still there to add to its receiver depth chart, one move could be to acquire Hopkins from the Titans.”
Lions need to trade for Jets EDGE Haason Reddick.“In the aftermath of losing Aidan Hutchinson for the season, it makes sense for the Lions to check in with the Jets to see if they could help cushion his absence with the disgruntled pass rusher. New York has reportedly granted Reddick permission to seek a trade, so they are receptive to the idea of moving him.”
4. Sub-.500 teams that should still feel good about their playoff chances
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There are currently 13 teams in the NFL that have a losing record, but not all of them are built the same. Although it feels like the season is already over for some of those teams — like the Patriots and Panthers — a few of them should still feel good about their playoff chances, according to Cody Benjamin.
Heading into Week 7, Cody identified several sub-.500 teams that should still feel good about their chances of making the playoffs.
Bengals (2-4). “Burrow’s been playing at an All-Pro level, but Cincinnati’s had a rough go of it. Even so, it’s that offensive production that should keep them relevant into the late fall. They currently rank 10th in scoring and 12th in yards per game. … If the defense can just slightly build off its better showing against the New York Giants, they should be able to chase the rival Pittsburgh Steelers down the stretch.”
Dolphins (2-3).“As always, it all comes down to Tua Tagovailoa’s health. It may or may not be wise for the Pro Bowl quarterback to take the field again after his latest extended absence due to head trauma, but with Mike McDaniel now publicly anticipating the signal-caller’s return, there’s a relatively clear path toward a reverse of fortunes in Miami.”
Rams (1-4).“Both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will be back eventually Sean McVay remains one of the NFL’s top coaches. And not a single NFC West team is currently above .500. With the Cardinals and Seahawks coming off tough losses, the Rams could easily make up ground with a manageable schedule into mid-November.”
5. Answering the NFL’s biggest questions heading into Week 7
As we get ready to head into Week 7, there are a lot of questions that need to be answered around the NFL and the good news for us is that we have Jordan Dajani here to answer them.
Let’s take a look at two of his biggest questions this week:
Are the Cowboys cooked?“The Cowboys have allowed 119 points in their first three home games this season. No team has allowed that many points in their first three games at home and made the playoffs. No team has been outscored by 66 points in their first three home games like the Cowboys have and made the playoffs either. The defense stinks, and the offense can’t find a rhythm. So yes, I think Cowboys fans will have more free time than they are used to in December/January. The Cowboys also have the eighth-toughest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon, and have a trip out to San Francisco scheduled after the bye.”
Are the Bears a sleeper team in the NFC?“Congrats to the Bears on their 35-16 victory over the Jaguars, but we absolutely cannot overreact to a double-digit win over this lowly squad. Jacksonville is clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL, and it would have been embarrassing if the Bears lost on Sunday. … Here’s an unfortunate truth when it comes to the Bears: They have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL. Out of their 11 remaining games, the only ‘easy opponents’ may be the Cardinals and Patriots. Chicago has still yet to play a division game! So no, I don’t see the Bears as a sleeper in the NFC right now. But that’s OK. It would appear this franchise is on the right track, and has found its quarterback of the future.”
Bears fans, please direct your hate mail to Jordan and not me.
It’s been a busy week in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
Packers sign Brandon McManus. After watching Brayden Narveson struggle through the first six weeks of the season, the Packers are finally making a change. The team has signed veteran Brandon McManus and he’s expected to be the team’s kicker on Sunday when Green Bay faces the Texans. You can read more about McManus’ signing here. Narveson’s field goal percentage of 70.6% was the second-lowest in the NFL through six weeks.
Russell Wilson taking first-team reps. It’s looking like this could finally be the week where we see Russell Wilson make his debut for the Steelers. The veteran QB has been taken first-team reps and all signs point to him playing on Sunday night against the Jets. Our Bryan DeArdo isn’t so sure that benching Justin Fields is the right move and you check out his reasoning here.
Saints’ Rashid Shaheed to have surgery. We mentioned at the top that Shaheed won’t be playing tonight and that’s due to a meniscus injury that’s likely going to require surgery. On Wednesday, coach Dennis Allen said that Shaheed will have the knee evaluated and depending on the severity, the receiver could end up on injured reserve, which would knock him out for four games.
Titans to release All-Pro safety.Jamal Adams has asked for his release from the Titans and the team is expected to grant his wishes, according to ESPN. Adams, who was in his first year with the Titans, will now be free to sign with any team. Today is actually Adams’ birthday — he’s turning 29 — so it looks like he’s getting his birthday wish to leave Tennessee.
Hall of Fame contributor class trimmed down to 25. The contributor category is a competitive one this year with Doug Williams, Robert Kraft and Amy Trask among the 25 candidates who could get into the Pro Football Hall of Fame this year. The contributor class will eventually be trimmed down to nine semifinalists with one person eventually getting inducted to the Hall of Fame in 2025. You can check out the full list of contributor candidates here.
