Do you want the good news or bad news first?
We’ll lead with the good—ESPN’s Mike Clay projects Buffalo Bills running back Ray Davis to finish among the top five rookie rushers in yardage.
The… not so good—the predicted production isn’t necessarily earth-shattering.
Clay projects the former Kentucky Wildcat to rush for 356 yards and two touchdowns as a rookie, firmly behind Jonathan Brooks (877 yards, six touchdowns), Trey Benson (507 yards, three touchdowns), and Blake Corum (471 yards, three touchdowns). Exiting the running back sphere, the analyst expects Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels to finish second amongst all rookies in rushing yards with 577 yards and five touchdowns.
“Corum and Davis will push Kyren Williams and James Cook, respectively, for change-of-pace touches right out of the gate,” Clay wrote of his Davis projection. “Since 2011, only six running backs who weren’t selected in the first two rounds went on to rush for 1,000 yards as a rookie.”
Related: Where ESPN projects Bills WR Keon Coleman to rank among rookie receivers
Barely scratching 350 yards throughout a 17-game season is far from garish production for a back who totaled 1,452 scrimmage yards for Kentucky last year, but it’s believable. Davis, in Buffalo, projects as the thunder to James Cook’s lightning; fresh off a season in which he finished sixth in the NFL in yards from scrimmage (1,567), Cook is still very much the lead back in Buffalo. Davis will spell him in short-yardage and goalline situations—a gaudy stat line should not be expected.
The two rushing touchdown projection also isn’t all that surprising when one considers who the Bills deploy at quarterback. Josh Allen can perhaps best be described as a human rhinoceros, and while Davis may have a fair number of red zone carries, it will likely be Allen who most often totes the rock near the goalline.
Davis’s production likely won’t be anything spectacular, but he’ll certainly carve out a meaningful role within Buffalo’s offense. It should also be noted that his production will not be limited to the ground; he caught 94 passes for 762 yards throughout his collegiate career, and thus, could be a factor on passing downs for the Bills.
