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Value Bet tips: Thursday August 22

1pt win Bueno Nacho in 2.25 York at 33/1 (General)

1pt win Midnight City in 2.25 York at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt win Bennetot in 3.00 York at 20/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Big Ben to strike twice in a week

Open-age handicaps can sometimes get a bit tedious at this stage of the season, with the same old faces turning out to take each other on, but this year’s Clipper Handicap – the big betting race on day two of the Ebor Festival at York – is a terrific race and features a bunch of relatively new names to the division.

William Haggas recently nominated Elnajmm as his best chance of the week having given him a Group 1 entry in the QEII in October; David O’Meara’s New Image is another thriving four-year-old who will be hotly fancied under Oisin Murphy for the first time; while Karl Burke obviously thinks plenty of progressive three-year-old Thunder Run, who caught the eye of all onlookers last time out at Thirsk, including the local stewards (horse reportedly became unbalanced late on).

I couldn’t put anyone off any of them really and Jack Channon’s Metal Merchant is among the next wave in the betting and his form claims are blindingly obvious too on the back of a slightly unfortunate one-length fourth in the International Stakes at Ascot. His latest in a string of rock-solid, creditable efforts in defeat.

Cast the net much wider and you’re getting towards some of the aforementioned ‘old faces’ such as Cruyff Turn, Bopedro and La Trinidad, although it is worth recalling the six-year-old Ropey Guest sprung a surprise in this race 12 months ago and an eight-year-old Escobar was only beaten a head at 28/1 the year before.

Finding the right balance between price and potential is rarely straightforward in a race of this nature but BENNETOT – one of New Image’s five stablemates in opposition – might just be the sensible answer.

O’Meara has proven himself to be one of the best trainers around with other people’s cast-offs and this son of Ectot was Listed-placed at three for Al Shaqab before losing his way and moving to North Yorkshire for €110,000 last summer.

New connections have had to be patient but after two starts last term and a handful earlier in 2024, he came down 13lb in the weights to a mark of 84 and duly won comfortably from off a strong pace in a competitive Racing League handicap at Windsor last Thursday.

He’s due to go up to 89 for that and is effectively competing off 91 under the mandatory penalty here but that bit of back-class suggests he’ll still prove to be ahead of the assessor now everything’s clicking into place. On top of that, Billy Loughnane seemed to get a great tune out of the five-year-old a week ago and stays in the plate.

Take two in valuable sales race

The market leaders are all quite well exposed in the Harry’s Half Million By Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes and I’m left wondering whether there’s a really good one still lurking among the shadows.

I’m willing to fire two darts in the hope of landing on the right horse at a big price, the first being BUENO NACHO for former greyhound trainer Paul Attwater.

He’s just been switched (across Lambourn) having made the one start officially under the banner of Dominic Ffrench Davis earlier in the month, and it was quite a smart effort too considering his complete lack of experience.

Sent off a 28/1 chance in a six-furlong maiden on the July Course, the son of Profitable evidently knew his job as he was brightly away from the gate, took a narrow lead early on and more than held his own into the final couple of furlongs.

He drifted quite markedly towards the far side from that point but must have a fair engine as he kept up the gallop, only being nosed out of second when eventually tiring inside the last 100 yards or so.

It’s very hard to know the strength of the form as none of the principals have run since and the Godolphin favourite (Beccali) definitely didn’t deliver what was expected on the day, having fluffed the start and ended up seventh, but you don’t get many weak races of that nature at Newmarket and it’s worth noting the now 92-rated Qirat finished third in it last year.

Bueno Nacho should be much sharper and wiser at the second time of asking here and perhaps stall one will be a blessing as he won’t be able to go too far left if inclined to hang that way again when asked for an effort.

I’m keen not to over-think the draw at York this week but the past four winners of this race all came from single-figure stalls and I can see this colt going well for a long way on a course renowned for suiting pacey types.

Housed on the other side of the track (stall 19), MIDNIGHT CITY also appeals at the odds.

In for a penny and all that as this one finished fifth just a couple of places behind Bueno Nacho in the same Newmarket maiden, but he did run a very different race and plenty of positives can be taken from the effort.

Tucked away and just a fraction keen early on under Rab Havlin (retains the ride), Midnight City was doing all his best work late on and I loved how the penny was visibly dropping for him when he met the rising ground.

He wasn’t unduly punished as you’d expect and looks highly likely to improve a lot for the first start. Interestingly, Spencer (and owner Phil Cunningham) had the sixth in that event last year with Fool’s Gold, who won second time out at Windsor before being thrown in against Big Evs and co in a Group race at Doncaster.

This race will demand a whole lot more of Midnight City, but they’ve got another promising horse on their hands by the looks of it and he’s a full-brother to Online Alexander, who won over five furlongs here as a three-year-old, so I’m not surprised they’re willing to have a tilt at such an inflated prize pot at this track.

Published at 1600 BST on 21/08/24

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