The 149th running of the Preakness Stakes — the middle jewel of the Triple Crown — is set for 7 p.m. ET at Baltimore’s historic Pimlico racecourse.
This race offers some solid wagering opportunities, especially if you’re looking to fade Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, so let’s dig into more Preakness Stakes predictions and picks and determine how bettors should play the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta.
A field of eight will contest the Preakness, led by Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, who inherited favoritism following the scratch of Muth. On the Preakness Stakes odds board, Mystik Dan is joined by Catching Freedom and Just Steel in returning from the “Run for the Roses,” and there are five “new shooters” ready to make their mark in the three-year-old division.
The exacta requires the bettor to select the Top 2 finishers of a race in exact order. The minimum wager at Pimlico is $1. Bettors can also “box” an exacta, meaning the two (or more) selected Preakness Stakes horses on a ticket can finish in any order, albeit at an increased cost.
The top horse in my Preakness predictions is No. 8 Tuscan Gold, who could become trainer Chad Brown’s third Preakness victor. Much like his first two winners (Cloud Computing in 2017, Early Voting in 2021) Tuscan Gold is lightly raced and skipped the Kentucky Derby to await this race.
Tuscan Gold ran a solid third in the Grade II Louisiana Derby going 1 3/16th-miles, the same distance as the Preakness. While he did finish behind Catching Freedom, he’ll be the fresher horse when these rivals meet again on Saturday.
This son of Medaglia d’Oro only needs to take a slight step forward to compete in this race, and the price is right. I think Tyler Gaffalione will get his second Preakness triumph after just missing the win in the Kentucky Derby atop Sierra Leone.
Of all the remaining Preakness horses, No. 9 Imagination is the only other one I’ll be backing in the win spot.
Imagination was last seen getting out-bobbed by Stronghold, the Kentucky Derby’s seventh-place finisher, in the Santa Anita Derby. That was his fourth runner-up finish in six lifetime starts, with the remaining two being his only wins to date.
The San Felipe Stakes winner retains Frankie Dettori and has the natural early speed to clear from the far outside spot in the Preakness post positions.
Just in case one of my top two picks falter, I’ll defend myself by wagering on No. 7 Just Steel to finish second.
Just Steel completed the exacta in three of his first four starts of 2024, including the Arkansas Derby two-back. If you can forgive his misfire in the Kentucky Derby after chasing a fast pace, he makes sense for second in the Preakness.
Bettors should note the positive jockey change to Joel Rosario as well as the slight cutback in distance.
$15 exacta pick:
To win: No. 8 Tuscan Gold
Second place: No. 9 Imagination
$5 exacta pick:
To win: No. 9 Imagination
Second place: No. 8 Tuscan Gold
$5 exacta pick:
To win: No. 8 Tuscan Gold, No. 9 Imagination
Second place: No. 7 Just Steel
Total = $30
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The trifecta tasks the bettor with determining the first three finishers of a race in exact order. The payoff can be much higher than the exacta, but both the ticket cost and the risk factor increase significantly, even with a minimum wager amount of 50 cents.
Tuscan Gold, Imagination, and Just Steel will absolutely factor into my trifecta picks, but I’ll also use No. 3 Catching Freedom and No. 5 Mystik Dan in the lower rungs.
Catching Freedom rallied late to be fourth in the Kentucky Derby, adding to a solid resume that includes wins in the Louisiana Derby and Smarty Jones Stakes as well as a third in the Risen Star.
Flavien Prat has the call once more for Brad Cox, and as long as this son of Constitution takes to the quick turnaround, he should be involved late.
Mystik Dan has had an up-and-down year, sandwiching a distant third-place effort in the Arkansas Derby with wins in the Southwest and, of course, the Kentucky Derby.
$6 trifecta pick:
To win: No. 8 Tuscan Gold
Second place: No. 9 Imagination
Third place: No. 3 Catching Freedom, No. 5 Mystik Dan, No. 7 Just Steel
$4 trifecta pick:
To win: No. 9 Imagination
Second place: No. 8 Tuscan Gold
Third place: No. 3 Catching Freedom, No. 5 Mystik Dan, No. 7 Just Steel
$0.50 trifecta pick:
To win: No. 8 Tuscan Gold, No. 9 Imagination
Second place: No. 3 Catching Freedom, No. 5 Mystik Dan, No. 7 Just Steel, No. 8 Tuscan Gold, No. 9 Imagination
Third place: No. 3 Catching Freedom, No. 5 Mystik Dan, No. 7 Just Steel, No. 8 Tuscan Gold, No. 9 Imagination
Total = $42
Our experts are making Preakness Stakes picks and building bets all week.
The superfecta is even tougher to nail down than the trifecta, as it requires the bettor to pick the first four finishers of a race in exact order. Of course, the potential payday can be tremendous. The minimum wager amount is just 10 cents, making it somewhat easier to get involved.
As I did with the exacta and trifecta, I’ll focus on Tuscan Gold and Imagination landing in the Top 2 positions. Then I’ll mix things up with Catching Freedom, Mystik Dan, and Just Steel all being able to grab second.
$2 superfecta pick:
To win: No. 8 Tuscan Gold, No. 9 Imagination
Second place: No. 8 Tuscan Gold, No. 9 Imagination
Third place: No. 3 Catching Freedom, No. 5 Mystik Dan, No. 7 Just Steel
Fourth place: No. 3 Catching Freedom, No. 5 Mystik Dan, No. 7 Just Steel
$0.50 superfecta pick:
To win: No. 8 Tuscan Gold, No. 9 Imagination
Second place: No. 3 Catching Freedom, No. 5 Mystik Dan, No. 7 Just Steel, No. 8 Tuscan Gold, No. 9 Imagination
Third place: No. 3 Catching Freedom, No. 5 Mystik Dan, No. 7 Just Steel, No. 8 Tuscan Gold, No. 9 Imagination
Fourth place: No. 3 Catching Freedom, No. 5 Mystik Dan, No. 7 Just Steel, No. 8 Tuscan Gold, No. 9 Imagination
Total = $48
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Following the changes to the iGaming regulations on April 4, 2022, horse racing betting is no longer available at sportsbooks. Those in Ontario who are looking to bet on the Preakness Stakes will need to sign up at one of Woodbine’s two online offerings, HPIbet and Dark Horse Bets
