The 2024-25 NBA season tips off in just two weeks, and the reigning champion Boston Celtics (+320) are favored to win the Finals this year, via FanDuel Sportsbook’s NBA odds.
Boston may be the team to beat, but many groups have made offseason moves in hopes of competing for the title. The New York Knicks made the biggest splash, adding Mikal Bridges and later acquiringKarl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo in a trade with the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Philadelphia 76ers inked Paul George to a four-year, $212 million contract while Klay Thompson signed a three-year, $50 million deal with the Dallas Mavericks.
Six different teams have won a championship in as many years. Will parity continue to be a trend in the NBA, or is this iteration of the Celtics dynasty here to stay?
Let’s check out FanDuel’s NBA Finals odds and see which teams have the fixings to compete this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder
+650
Minnesota Timberwolves
+1000
It’s par for the course when a reigning champion is favored in that same market in the ensuing season. Sometimes, the “champs until proven otherwise” adage offers us a decent fade opportunity, but are the Celtics actually undervalued in the Finals market?
Last season, the Celtics posted a +11.7 net rating. No other team posted a net rating higher than +7.3. Boston’s net rating was the third-highest in NBA history, to only Chicago’s 1995-96 and 1996-97 Jordan teams. So, without even being hyperbolic, we witnessed one of the best seasons in NBA history last year, and the C’s made good on the hype, sweeping in the Eastern Conference Finals and winning the title in just five games.
Boston is returning with the same cast this go-around and added Lonnie Walker to their bench. One of the more intriguing aspects of this team is that they’ve already proven they can win without a fully healthy starting five. Last year, Kristaps Porzingis missed 25 regular season games and 12 of their 19 playoff games. Porzingis was a full-go in just three of their postseason contests, all of which came in the first round.
Kristaps averaged 20.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game. He also ranked 19th in defensive rating and 22nd in defensive win shares among 181 NBA players who suited up for at least 55 games and averaged at least 20 minutes. His 7-foot-3 stature also left a size issue for an otherwise small Celtics group. Even still, Boston won all four of their playoff series in a maximum of five games. For most contenders, an injury to a player of someone like Porzingis’ caliber would be hugely detrimental to their title chances, but Boston’s ability to dominate even down one man offers their backers some insurance. One injury won’t undo this team.
Porzingis (ankle) underwent surgery in the offseason and is expected to return to action in December, though the team is hopeful he will be back before then. Based on that timetable, Porzingis would miss roughly the first 20 regular season games for the C’s.
Since Porzingis is set to miss a decent chunk of time, we could have an opportunity down the road to back Boston at longer odds should they struggle from the get. With that said, the Celtics went 21-4 in the regular season and 10-2 in the playoffs sans KP a season ago, so I’m not holding out hope that we will have access to any longer than +320 odds here unless season-altering injuries wreak havoc on this group.
I’m not so sure the Knicks deserve to own the third-shortest NBA title odds.
New York hasn’t made a Conference Finals appearance since the 1999-2000 season and currently have just three players on their roster — Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, and Miles McBride — who were with the team during last season’s Christmas Day game. Plus, any path to the Finals would almost undoubtedly feature a seven-game series against the Celtics.
Considering the massive roster upheaval, unproven play in the postseason, and a tough road that could feature the Celtics, I won’t be buying this high on the Knicks.
However, New York’s offseason moves give them the best chance to compete against Boston in the East, so I do think they’re worth mentioning here even if I’m not moved by their odds.
Julius Randle is a great player, but the Knicks couldn’t afford to rely on both him and Mitchell Robinson, two of the least durable bigs in the league. Say what you will about Karl-Anthony Towns, but he’s been one of the best offensive bigs in the NBA for quite some time and his ability to shoot outside (41.6% 3P%) provides the Knicks with exciting floor spacing in an offense that constantly has Brunson on-ball.
OG Anunoby and Bridges have each made an All-Defensive team and Hart has proven to be one of the best rebounding guards in the league. They’ve loaded up on two-way players and three-point shooting with a pretty clear intent on matching up as best they can against Boston.
These +750 odds imply an 11.76% probability, but numberFire’s NBA projections hand them just a 9.7% title chance. I’m into backing a successful season for New York, just not at this number.
You can get Knicks Over 54.5 regular season wins at -106, which is my preferred way to bet on this team entering the season.
The market’s former darling has had a fall from grace, but backing the Denver Nuggets at +1100 odds is catching my eye as one of the best value bets.
At the end of the 2023-2024 NBA season, the Nuggets were +750 to win this year’s NBA Finals, second behind only Boston. In just a few month’s time, their odds have shot up to +1100. What caused the shift?
While I’m not ready to say that Minnesota lost the trade that sent KAT to New York, I’m definitely not ready to say they won it, either. The Wolves added two talents in Randle and Divincenzo, but their frontcourt looks insane right now with Randle, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid, and the 36-year-old Mike Conley might not be a viable starting point guard for much longer. I was pretty high on Minnesota last season, but now, I’m more confused than anything.
Past the Wolves (+1000), the Oklahoma City Thunder (+650) are the only other Western Conference team with shorter odds than the Nuggets. I love OKC, and there’s a reason why SGA and company have the second-highest win total (56.5) entering the year, but their team is incredibly young and lacks legit playoff experience, and we know how important playoff durability is in this league. I’m in no way counting out OKC, but they seem pretty beatable for being the best projected team in the West.
The Golden State Warriors dynasty is officially over with the departure of Thompson, and the Los Angeles Clippers are hardly on our championship radar with George now gone. This is all to say that the West seems more wide open than ever before, so I have no problem considering a former championship team that features Nikola Jokic.
My one huge gripe with the Nuggets? They lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope this offseason after he signed a three-year, $66 million deal with the Orlando Magic. KCP brought the three-point shooting (40.6% 3P%) and is one of the best defensive guards in the league. Christian Braun could be ready to take the next step for Denver, and Russell Westbrook was brought in, but the Nuggets will need productive seasons from both of them in order to make up for the gap KCP leaves behind.
The 76ers (+1000) aren’t a team I feel great about backing. Paul George has never been known for his deep playoff runs, Joel Embiid‘s durability will always be up in the air, and Philly will have tough competition in the East against the Celtics, Knicks, and Milwaukee Bucks (+1400). However, they did get rid of Tobias Harris and added Caleb Martin, one of the more exciting under-the-radar offseason moves.
The Mavericks (+1100) are a must-mention considering they made it to the Finals a season ago, but when a team’s problem is defense, adding a practically washed Thompson and losing Derrick Jones Jr. is a questionable sequence of events. They did, however, add Naji Marshall — another great under-the-radar signing — so it wasn’t a terribly bad offseason for the Mavs.
The Orlando Magic (+4000), Indiana Pacers (+5000), and Sacramento Kings (+5500) are an interesting crop of teams. The Magic already had a great young core and added KCP while the Kings could look to rebound from an off-year after adding DeMar DeRozan to a roster that already features De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. Indiana may have gotten swept in the ECF, but making it there is a notable feat and the Celtics seem to be in agreement that the Pacers were their toughest competition in the playoffs last year. Indiana’s crazy quick pace could continue to have them making deeper playoff runs than anticipated.
This is not to say that we should back any of Orlando, Indiana, or Sacramento in the Finals market, though I do think all three teams have a chance to make a bigger playoff splash than perhaps expected.
This season, LeBron James will be joined by his kin and former podcast buddy turned head coach. What could go wrong?
In all seriousness, the Los Angeles Lakers (+4000) might be the most realistic longshot option. They at least have some key “championship” pieces in LeBron and Anthony Davis and feature a few young players that could break out this year. Do I think the Lakers have any shot to win with their current roster? No. But LeBron is turning 40 years old this season and probably doesn’t have much left in the tank past this campaign. I wouldn’t be shocked if LA’s faux GM encourages the team to dump off some of their young roster and future draft picks to make a big midseason move — one that could force the team back onto our championship radar.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
