The first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open, is underway and into the second week.
What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Which bet stand out for the men’s singles final?
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Throughout the tournament, it’s felt like a near certainty that Jannik Sinner would be into the final, and it isn’t even Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic standing in his path at the end. Instead, Alexander Zverev has come through from the other side, who’s seeking his first major title.
Zverev is the world No. 2 and carries a 4-2 head-to-head record against Sinner, so it’s not like Sinner will be going up against some slouch. And yet it’s still hard to see Jannik not emerging victorious at this event for the second straight year.
Sinner enters this match having won 20 straight matches dating back to last season. In fact, if we go back even further, he’s lost just once over his last 37 matches — all on hard courts — and that loss was to Alcaraz, perhaps his only true rival at this point. Over that stretch, he not only won the US Open but also the ATP Finals and two Masters 1000 tournaments.
While Zverev has generally had a smooth run to the final, he found himself in two tiebreaks against Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals (Paul ultimately crashed out in both) and then similarly opened his semifinal against Djokovic with a tiebreak — only for Novak to retire due to injury. It feels noteworthy that even against a hobbled Djokovic, Zverev barely eked by in that opening set, and that isn’t a promising sign for him entering a match with the world No. 1.
Per Tennis Abstract, despite these two sitting atop the ATP rankings, Sinner’s tour-best hard court Elo rating is over 240 points higher than Zverev’s. The end result is a massive 85.5% win probability. Massey Ratings’ matchup tool is fully behind Sinner, too, spitting out an 80% win chance.
Circling back to their head-to-head, Zverev’s winning record might suggest he’ll be trouble for Sinner. However, just one of those matches came last season — which Sinner won — and all the rest came in 2023 or earlier.
We have to remember that Sinner is still just 23 years old and didn’t begin his run of dominance until last year’s Australian Open, so most of those matches came before he was at the peak of his powers. After all, the Italian didn’t achieve the top ranking until midway through 2024.
This was always Sinner’s tournament to lose, and particularly with Alcaraz and Djokovic out of the picture, the stage is set for him to finish the job. While Zverev will be his toughest opposition of the tournament, it’s telling he’s won every single match by seven or more games. He needs to win by just five to cover in this final, and we should like his chances of doing so.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
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