NFL Week 11 picks and predictions: Why you should consider Saints and Packers on Sunday
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his best bets for Sunday’s slate of games.
Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season is here.
Sunday promises to be entertaining, including divisional games in the AFC North Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2), NFC North Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Chicago Bears (4-5), and NFC West Seattle Seahawks (4-5) at San Francisco 49ers (5-4). We’ll also have the Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at Buffalo Bills (8-2) in the evening as they battle for supremacy of the AFC.
At this point in the season, injuries have taken their toll across the NFL, but some of those injuries open up opportunities for lesser-known players to make an impact and score a touchdown on Sunday.
USA TODAY Sports has narrowed down the best options for anytime touchdown scorers for you here. Let’s get to the best NFL bets for Sunday games in Week 11 with odds from BetMGM. Best of luck if you tail.
Odds as of Wednesday.
The Steelers passing game has taken off since Mike Tomlin inserted Russell Wilson as the starting quarterback. The Steelers host the Ravens, who have had the worst secondary in the NFL to this point. Baltimore has allowed the most explosive pass plays (82). Last week, the world watched Ja’Marr Chase torch them for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Ravens have allowed the most scores to opposing wide receivers, and Pickens has been targeted on a whopping 50% of end-zone targets.
The Detroit Lions are the largest favorite (-13) of Week 11. The Lions will roar as they have one of the highest implied team totals to this point of the season at 31 points. Detroit will host the Jaguars, who will be without Trevor Lawrence. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are in an excellent position to succeed on the ground, but Jared Goff and the passing game will directly benefit from their success with the play-action game. Jameson Williams returned from his two-game suspension last week and stepped back into his role. He leads the Lions with an average depth of target of 15.8 yards. The Jaguars defense has allowed the third-most explosive pass plays (60). Williams has an excellent opportunity to connect on a deep touchdown pass.
The Browns head to NOLA this Sunday to take on the Saints. The story heading into the game will be Jameis Winston returning to start against his former team. However, the story after the game will likely be about Nick Chubb, who has handled the lion’s share of Browns’ rush attempts (75%) since returning from injury. The Saints have allowed a league-high 5.2 yards per carry. They have allowed the second-most touchdowns overall to opposing backfields. Cleveland are short underdogs (-2) on Sunday, so the Browns likely won’t be forced to abandon the run. Chubb suffered a gruesome leg injury last season but is prime to dominate in his fourth game since returning.
The Jets defense was exposed last week (20 missed tackles) against the Cardinals and running back James Conner. New York struggled to make tackles, and tackling has been under the microscope, prompting interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich to give a tackling presentation heading into Sunday’s game against the Colts. Anthony Richardson has been named the starter again after his benching for two games. Believe it or not, Taylor and Richardson have been healthy on the field together in just four games in their careers. All four coming this season. In those games, Taylor rushed for 48 yards (1 TD), 103 yards (0 TDs), 110 yards (2 TDs) and 48 yards (0 TDs). The Jets’ pass defense is strong, but they have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game. The Colts were a pass-first unit with Flacco under center (passing 62% of plays) and will likely revert to a run-first unit with Richardson (passing 49% of plays). It will be exciting to see Richardson and Taylor’s dynamic rushing abilities on the field together again.
The Bills host the undefeated Chiefs in Orchard Park on Sunday evening, and all eyes will be on the matchup. Buffalo could be undermanned as they have already ruled out wide receiver Keon Coleman, and tight end Dalton Kincaid has missed practice after suffering a knee injury in Week 10. Josh Allen will likely lean on his shifty slot receiver Khalil Shakir on Sunday. The Chiefs are susceptible to slot receivers allowing the second-most (6) receiving scores to opposing receivers from the slot. Shakir and Allen’s connection will be fully displayed against the Chiefs’ two-high scheme.
