For the second time in as many games, the Blue Devils are taking on a ranked opponent. The Chronicle’s beats are here to share their predictions for No. 11 Duke’s matchup with No. 1 Kansas.
Duke got a boatload of confidence from the Arizona win, and I’m sure that will be a key moving forward. The Blue Devils should keep this close and prove that they can compete against the best of the best. Kansas has bigger guards and wings that can rival Duke’s size, and I just think that Bill Self knows how to win. This young Blue Devil team is still learning how to finish games, so I think the Jayhawks pull out a tight one in the end.
Despite the Blue Devils’ strong showing on the road against Arizona, I am still worried about their offense against top-end opponents. I think it’s little more than a learning curve for a new unit, but Kansas benefits from experience — namely Hunter Dickinson. I worry that if Khaman Maluach gets into foul trouble early on, Dickinson can take control of the flow of the game. With that being said, if Duke can knock down its shots at a higher clip than against the Wildcats (both from Arizona and Kentucky), it is well positioned to topple No. 1.
Duke’s defensive performance against Arizona has fueled me with even more confidence for these Blue Devils. Their first true road game of the season brought out the best of Cooper Flagg, proved that Kon Knueppel still has his 3-point touch and made clear the veteran importance of Tyrese Proctor, even if the junior scored just eight points. The Jayhawks have just one ranked victory in the books this season, a slim-margin win over North Carolina that stands as less impressive, from my view, than Duke’s defeat of Arizona. I don’t doubt that this game will test the Blue Devils harder than both Wildcat teams did, but I think a couple weeks’ difference might just be enough for Scheyer’s group.
The Blue Devils now boast the top adjusted defensive efficiency in the country according to KenPom, and they rank well above the Jayhawks in both rebounds and 3-pointers per game. While this certainly won’t be an easy win, especially against Kansas’ experienced roster, Scheyer’s squad has proven it can learn from past mistakes and play toe-to-toe against ranked opponents. Top scorers Flagg, Knueppel and Proctor will need to find the basket with more consistency — but assuming they build momentum off the Arizona win, it’s only fitting to bet on the Blue Devils in Vegas.
Despite its No. 1 ranking, Kansas hasn’t exactly had a dominant start to the season, even against unheralded opponents. The Jayhawks certainly boast much more in experience in their starting five than the Blue Devils, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Duke has just as much, if not more talent. Ultimately, the outcome of Tuesday’s battle will likely come down to whether the Blue Devils remedy some of their early-season big-game shooting woes, which I think they will. Scheyer’s squad is pointing in the right direction, and a narrow victory over the No. 1 team in the country will demonstrate just that.
The Blue Devils seemed to have grown up fast after their loss to Kentucky to open the season, following it up with a dominant defensive showing in a road top-25 matchup. Another big test looms in Las Vegas, and I think the contest against the Jayhawks hinges on the play of Dickinson. Dickinson is almost certain to get his fair share of buckets and boards, but if Maluach can just contain him slightly, Duke should be able to find success. On the other end of the floor, Maluach will be crucial to spacing the floor for the Blue Devils, and I think the already solid pick-and-roll game between Maluach and Duke’s guards will lead to a big victory.
Duke’s last two games couldn’t have gone more differently. Poor shooting and a late collapse against Kentucky in Atlanta made way for far better shooting and a late pull-away against Arizona in Tucson. Proctor said after the (second, I guess) win against the Wildcats that the Kentucky loss helped his team stay composed down the stretch, but with only two games of sample I remain unconvinced which of these games showed us the actual Duke. I certainly believe the Blue Devils can hang with a Jayhawks team I’ve found pretty unremarkable so far, but the swings in performance from Scheyer’s group give me pause about its ability to overcome the country’s No. 1-ranked team. I also worry about the experience of Dickinson, who could get Maluach into some early foul trouble.
This one should live up to its all-star hype. The last game Duke played where it faced equal size in the paint was against Kentucky, when 6-foot-11 Andrew Carr and 7-foot Amari Williams combined for 27 points and 14 rebounds. Dickinson provides a challenge the Blue Devils haven’t really faced yet. Maluach has played well thus far, especially without the brace on his hand, but will need to rebound like there’s no tomorrow on both ends for Duke to have the advantage down low. Otherwise, it will have to rely on its shooters, which is risky (re: Kentucky). I don’t think Maluach is quite there yet, and the No. 1 team holds on.
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Rachael Kaplan is a Trinity senior and a senior editor of The Chronicle’s 120th volume.
Dom Fenoglio is a Trinity junior and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle’s 120th volume.
Ranjan Jindal is a Trinity junior and sports editor of The Chronicle’s 120th volume.
Sophie Levenson is a Trinity junior and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle’s 120th volume.
Rodrigo Amare is a Trinity sophomore and assistant Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle’s 120th volume.
Abby DiSalvo is a Trinity sophomore and assistant Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle’s 120th volume.
Andrew Long is a Trinity senior and recruitment/social chair of The Chronicle’s 120th volume. He was previously sports editor for Volume 119.
