• Myles Garrett is the best No. 1 overall pick since 2015: It was a close call between him and Joe Burrow, but Garrett is working on five straight years of elite PFF grades, with his best yet coming in 2023 alongside a historically high pass-rush win rate.
• Three edge rushers take the top three spots: The Bosa brothers round out the top three as elite draft picks at the Nos. 2 and 3 spots.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF’s fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated Reading Time: 12 minutes
It’s been too long since we’ve done a mock draft here at PFF, so with our offseason creativity caps on, we’ll make the perfect mock draft by looking at the best picks at every slot since 2015.
This was a tough decision to kick things off.
The debate came down to Myles Garrett and Joe Burrow. Burrow could have the edge as a successful quarterback, but Garrett is working on five straight years of elite PFF grades, with his best yet coming in 2023 alongside a historically high pass-rush win rate. He is a five-time Pro Bowler, a three-time first-team All-Pro and the reigning Defensive Player of the Year with no signs of slowing down.
Others considered: QB Joe Burrow (2020)
Like Garrett, Bosa has been dominant since he entered the league. He has a Defensive Player of the Year award in his trophy case with elite PFF grades in almost every year of his career.
Aidan Hutchinson and C.J. Stroud are off to good starts, but Bosa is still far ahead because of his sustained level of elite play.
Others considered: QB C.J. Stroud (2023), EDGE Aidan Hutchinson (2022)
Bosa has slowed down the past year or two, with his age and injuries catching up to him. But we can’t forget that he earned an elite PFF overall grade in five of his first six years with four elite pass-rush grades.
Quinnen Williams is coming off back-to-back elite seasons as one of the best interior defensive linemen in football, and he could certainly get to the top spot here soon.
Others considered: DI Quinnen Williams (2019)
Though Gardner hasn’t been in the NFL for long, it’s hard to argue with his success. In just two seasons, he is already recognized as one of the best cornerbacks in the league, if not the best. His unique movement skills at his size have allowed him to record back-to-back elite coverage grades of 90.0 and 90.8.
Lane Johnson would have been the pick here, but he was outside the parameters as a 2013 draftee.
Others considered: CB Denzel Ward (2018)
This one was extremely difficult, but Jalen Ramsey edges out Ja’Marr Chase due to longevity.
Ramsey came into the league as one of the most talented players in the 2016 class. He was very solid as a rookie, and he quickly made the jump to elite in his second season. His PFF coverage grades have been less stable than Chase’s, but that is the nature of playing cornerback — you’re naturally going to fail more than other positions.
Chase is still a fair choice here, but Ramsey has played at such a high level for multiple defensive coordinators.
Others considered: WR Ja’Marr Chase (2021), QB Tua Tagovailoa (2020)
Herbert’s and Jaylen Waddle’s PFF numbers are close, as both have one elite season alongside other successful years, but Herbert wins out due to the difficulty of the quarterback position — and for how well he played last season amid less-than-ideal circumstances.
Ronnie Stanley and Leonard Williams have had good careers, when healthy, but haven’t hit the highs of Herbert and Waddle, even with them being younger.
Others considered: WR Jaylen Waddle (2021), T Ronnie Stanley (2016), DI Leonard Williams (2015)
The No. 7 overall pick has been a sweet spot for NFL talent, but Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen — not to be confused with edge rusher Josh Allen, who was also picked at No. 7 — is the best of the bunch. Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, as evidenced by three straight elite overall grades.
Others considered: EDGE Josh Allen (2019), DI DeForest Buckner (2016), T Penei Sewell (2021), DI Derrick Brown (2020)
Picking a running back in the top 10 is generally ill-advised based on positional and contractual value. However, when guys are really good, we have no problem recognizing that. McCaffrey is one of them.
Whether in Carolina or San Francisco, CMC has only one fully healthy season where he recorded a single-season offensive grade below 80.0 — his rookie year. That includes the elite grades he has earned in each of the past two seasons.
Others considered: LB Roquan Smith (2018)
The No. 9 pickings were relatively slim, but Patrick Surtain II gets the nod here as one of the NFL’s most talented defensive backs. He has had an up-and-down three years, but his highs have been better than any of the other candidates at this pick. His Broncos teammate Mike McGlinchey has the best case against him.
Others considered: T Mike McGlinchey (2018)
One of the greatest football players of all time was picked at No. 10 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft.
Wide receivers Garrett Wilson and DeVonta Smith are good players but, unfortunately, are more just names to shout out than actual considerations.
Others considered: None
Fitzpatrick has been one of the best safeties in the NFL for years. He is a four-time Pro Bowler and a three-time first-team All-Pro. He has never recorded a single-season run-defense grade below 73.0, with most years being in the 80.0-plus range.
Others considered: CB Marshon Lattimore (2017)
Parsons is one of the best players in the league, a truism since he arrived on the scene in 2021. He has posted three straight single-season elite overall grades to start his career, with some freaky pass-rush numbers to make that happen. Parsons’ career pass-rush win rate sits above 21.0%.
Others considered: EDGE Rashan Gary (2019), DI Vita Vea (2018)
There were three fantastic offensive tackles to choose from at pick No. 13, but Tunsil gets the nod due to longevity.
We just missed Aaron Donald being the easy top choice for this pick, as he was in the 2014 class, one year before the cut-off for this exercise. Tristan Wirfs is one year of similar production away from being the choice here — and if this were a “moving forward” type of pick, it would easily be Wirfs — but Tunsil has been so steady and strong since 2018 across two teams with varying offenses and coaching staffs.
Others considered: T Tristan Wirfs (2020), T Rashawn Slater (2021), DI Christian Wilkins (2019)
Lindstrom has been one of the best offensive linemen in football over the past three seasons. In 2022, he recorded a 95.0 single-season PFF grade, which was one of the highest marks in PFF history. He remains a stud heading into 2024, looking to build off that consistent success as a dominant run blocker.
Others considered: S Kyle Hamilton (2022)
The Raiders didn’t get many draft picks right during the Jon Gruden era, but Kolton Miller turned out to be a big hit. He has recorded single-season PFF blocking grades above 80.0 for each of the last three seasons.
There weren’t many other standouts to consider here, which means 2024 rookie Laiatu Latu has a chance to make a name for himself as the most recent No. 15 pick.
Others considered: None
I went back and forth between Taylor Decker and Humphrey but gave the edge to the Ravens cornerback because he has the higher career wins above replacement figure (0.33 compared to Decker’s 0.17).
We were again one year short of a player from the incredible 2014 class, which featured future Hall of Fame guard Zack Martin at this spot.
Others considered: T Taylor Decker (2016), EDGE Brian Burns (2019), CB A.J. Terrell (2019)
Pick No. 17 has several stars, from CeeDee Lamb to Dexter Lawrence to Derwin James. James started his career strong but has steadily declined since. Lawrence and Lamb are truly a coin flip. Both are coming off elite single-season grades in 2023, and both had very good seasons leading up to it.
Others considered: DI Dexter Lawrence (2019), S Derwin James (2018)
Alexander may not have as many career interceptions as Marcus Peters, but his coverage highs have been just as good and his coverage lows have been much higher, with 73.0 being his lowest single-season coverage grade — and that was his rookie season. When healthy, Alexander is a true CB1 who can play on the outside or in the slot.
Others considered: CB Marcus Peters (2015)
Simmons doesn’t face much competition here, but that’s no slight to the Titans’ top defensive lineman. He recorded single-season PFF grades above 80.0 in 2020 and 2022, and his pass-rush win rate has been above 10% in each of his five NFL seasons.
Others considered: None
Ragnow has been a rock in the middle of the Lions’ offensive line for the past four seasons. That includes elite run-blocking grades in two of the past three seasons and an astounding 29.0% positively graded run play rate when blocking outside zone concepts in 2023.
Garett Bolles has been steady in his career, but he hasn’t had as many highs as Ragnow.
Others considered: T Garett Bolles (2017)
McDuffie in just his second NFL season showed he is one of the best cornerbacks in the game. He can play on the outside and in the slot, and he earned a team-best 81.5 coverage grade in 2023. With L’Jarius Sneed now in Tennessee, McDuffie will assume CB1 duties for Kansas City in 2024.
Others considered: EDGE Kwity Paye (2021), WR Will Fuller (2016)
This one isn’t too complicated. Justin Jefferson is one of the best football players in the league and just signed a contract that makes him the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL. He has recorded four straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons, paired with four straight elite receiving grades.
Others considered: None
Darrisaw didn’t have as efficient of a season in 2023 as he did in 2022, seeing his overall grade drop from 91.2 to 85.1, but that is still an excellent mark. He remains one of the best young offensive tackles in the league, and there really wasn’t anyone else to consider here.
Others considered: None
This one was tight between D.J. Moore and Josh Jacobs, who have both played well at their positions for multiple years. Offensive tackle D.J. Humphries was also considered, as he has the longevity factor on his side. But Moore’s highs give him the edge.
Others considered: RB Josh Jacobs (2019), OL Tyler Smith (2022), T D.J. Humphries (2015)
Aiyuk was an elite receiver in 2023, marking his second straight year of really good play.
Running back Travis Etienne has also been a strong player in his first two NFL seasons, and he belongs in the debate here. But Aiyuk has hit the elite grade high that Etienne hasn’t yet.
Others considered: RB Travis Etienne (2021), LB Shaq Thompson (2015)
It has taken a few years, but even the one season we saw of Love makes him the choice for this list. From Week 8 on in 2023, Love was PFF’s second-highest-graded passer. His 26 big-time throws in that span were also the second most.
Calvin Ridley and Montez Sweat are solid options, but Love’s current peak trumps each of their longer periods of success.
Others considered: EDGE Montez Sweat (2019), WR Calvin Ridley (2018)
Tre’Davious White had a fantastic rookie season but was never really able to replicate it. Byron Jones has also put together good seasons, but nothing at the elite level.
As for Clark, he earned back-to-back elite single-season grades in 2017 and 2018, and though he hasn’t hit that elite mark since, he has been a steady presence along the Packers’ defensive line. He gets the nod for his ceiling and longevity.
Others considered: CB Tre’Davious White (2017), CB Byron Jones (2015)
Queen’s career got off to a rough start, as he recorded 29.7 and 43.5 PFF overall grades in his first two seasons. But his past two single-season grades have been above 70.0. That high overall grade was based on much better coverage grades in 2022 and 2023. Fortunately for him, the competition at this pick number wasn’t too stiff.
Others considered: EDGE Payton Turner (2021)
This decision was tough, and not in a good way. The rest of the pool included players such as Isaiah Wilson, Taven Bryan and Robert Nkemdiche.
Njoku has earned a receiving grade above 70.0 in each of his past three seasons and recorded career highs in yards and touchdowns in 2023.
Others considered: G Cole Strange (2021)
This was perhaps the easiest selection of them all. Watt, who has been one of the best players in the NFL over the past decade, was an absolute steal for the Steelers at No. 30 overall in 2017. He is a six-time Pro Bowler, a four-time first-team All-Pro and a Defensive Player of the Year winner while being considered for the award in a handful of other years.
Others considered: None
McGary had a tough start to his NFL career, as he did not record a single-season grade above 65.0 in his first three years. But in 2022, he earned an 86.6 overall grade with a 91.6 run-blocking grade. His grades dipped a bit in 2023, but they were still solid.
Reuben Foster in 2017 and Sony Michel in 2018 were the big “what ifs” at this selection.
Others considered: None
Watt’s selection at No. 30 was easy, but the Ravens getting the two-time MVP Lamar Jackson at No. 32 is somehow even better.
Ryan Ramczyk deserves a shoutout, though, as he has been one of the best right tackles in the league for almost a decade now after being picked by the Saints back in 2017.
Others considered: Ryan Ramczyk (2017)
