DraftKings’ main slate for Wednesday includes the first seven games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
After torching the Rockets for 73.25 DraftKings points on Monday, Gilgeous-Alexander now faces a Grizzlies team that leads the league in pace and will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. (ankle). Memphis’ defensive rating has been 4.8 points worse with the forward off the floor this season, and this game’s 250.5-point total is tied for the highest totals in the NBA this season. Furthermore, Oklahoma City’s 129.75-point implied team total is the largest team total any team has seen this season.
In this incredible spot, Gilgeous-Alexander has the potential for his second straight effort of over 70 DraftKings points and is a player you must have exposure to. Gilgeous-Alexander is producing 1.6 DraftKings PPM with a 34.5% usage rate this season, and he has a 63 DraftKings point outing against the Grizzlies on his resume this season, even with Jackson Jr. active for that tilt.
As the Jazz continue to tank to improve their lottery chances, they have ruled out Lauri Markkanen (back), Collin Sexton (ankle), Jordan Clarkson (foot), John Collins (back), and Walker Kessler (rest) tonight, leaving George as the team’s main option. Utah has played two games with these five players inactive this season, and in those tilts, George led the Jazz with 40 DraftKings points in 32 minutes per game with a 34.7% usage rate.
This is a huge 9.8 percentage point increase from his average usage for the season, and facing a Wizards defense that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency tonight, George is an elite value play that can be trusted in all formats.
UPDATE: George has been downgraded to questionable with an illness. If George sits, we need to direct our attention to Isaiah Collier ($6,300), who would see all the minutes he can handle as the Jazz’s main guard.
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LaVine is a compelling GPP play with Domantas Sabonis (hamstring) sidelined. In the 139 minutes LaVine has played with Sabonis off the floor since joining the Kings, LaVine is generating 1.3 DraftKings PPM, thanks to his usage rate rising 3.9 percentage points to a team-high 29.3%, via the On/Off Tool. The Nuggets rank 21st in defensive efficiency this season, and this game’s total is the second-highest on the slate (237.5 points).
LaVine has a ceiling near 50 DraftKings points in our ShotQuality projections, and he should be low owned considering his inconsistent game log.
With Luka Doncic now with the Lakers and Kyrie Irving (knee) out for the season, the Mavericks should turn to Dinwiddie as their starting point guard. In the 10 games that Dallas has been without both Doncic and Irving this season, Dinwiddie is amassing 30 DraftKings points in 33.3 minutes per game.
In addition to Doncic and Irving, the Mavericks will be without Anthony Davis (adductor), P.J. Washington (ankle), and Dante Exum (foot) tonight. Dinwiddie is scoring 0.9 DraftKings PPM with a 22% usage rate with those five players off the floor this season, and he should see 35-40 minutes with his team so shorthanded. The Bucks are playing their second game in two nights and have always had issues slowing down opposing guards with Damian Lillard at the helm. In this ideal situation, Dinwiddie is a must-play.
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With the Thunder boasting the largest implied team total the NBA has seen this season, Williams absolutely needs to be considered. The first-time All-Star is supplying 1.3 DraftKings PPM with a 27.7% usage rate this season, and Williams has scored over 40 DraftKings points in four of his past seven starts, including a season-high 65 DraftKings-point outburst vs. the Spurs this past Sunday.
Williams has scored at least 44 DraftKings points in both of his matchups with the Grizzlies this season, and the forward has a strong chance to surpass that threshold Wednesday.
Sensabaugh is the best forward value on the slate with the Jazz extremely depleted tonight. In the two games Utah has been without Markkanen, Sexton, Clarkson, Collins, and Kessler this season, Sensabaugh is providing 29.8 DraftKings points in 28.6 minutes per game.
Sensabaugh is amassing 1.0 DraftKings PPM with a large 27.2% usage rate with those five players off the court this season and he is vastly underpriced for his expected workload.
Antetokounmpo appears to be fully recovered from the strained calf he suffered last month. In his last five starts, he has logged over 30 minutes in every game, and Antetokounmpo is producing 57.4 DraftKings PPG during this stretch. Leading the NBA with a 36.5% usage rate, Antetokounmpo is scoring 1.7 DraftKings PPM this season, and this is an elite spot for him against the Mavericks.
Dallas has been shorthanded up front for multiple weeks, and over their last 10 games, the Mavericks are giving up the most points in the paint in the league. Antetokounmpo is leading the NBA in paint points this season, and he is an elite value at this $11,000 salary. Earlier this season, Antetokounmpo’s salary peaked at $12,300 on DraftKings.
With Jordan Poole (elbow) missing his third in a row, Middleton is an excellent value play. The veteran has topped 30 DraftKings points in each of these last two without Poole, and with the high-usage guard off the floor, Middleton’s usage and assist rates rise 5.2 and 4.2 percentage points, respectively, via the On/Off Tool.
This results in a team-high 1.4 DraftKings PPM for Middleton, and the Wizards carry the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate against the Jazz (117.5 points), who rank dead last in defensive efficiency and will be without a plethora of key players. In this spot, Middleton has 40 DraftKings-point upside.
With Andrew Wiggins (ankle), Jaime Jacquez Jr. (ankle), and Kel’el Ware (knee) out Monday, Adebayo posted 51.75 DraftKings points vs. the Wizards. All three of those players will remain sidelined Wednesday, and Tyler Herro (illness) is trending towards being out as well. The guard missed shoot-around this morning and has been downgraded to questionable.
Adebayo is a strong target no matter what, but if Herro is inactive, Adebayo will see a notable boost and will have a huge ceiling worth pursuing in GPPs. With Herro, Wiggins, Jacquez Jr., Ware, and Jimmy Butler (now with the Warriors) off the court this season, Adebayo’s usage increases 4.0 percentage points to a team-high 27.5%, and he generates 1.3 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
With Markkanen, Kessler, and Collins missing from Utah’s frontcourt, Tshiebwe is the No. 1 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections. The Jazz were without those three big men in their second-to-last game, and in that situation, Tshiebwe posted a double-double of 37.25 DraftKings points across 20 minutes vs. the Pelicans. The center now finds himself in another beautiful matchup vs. the Wizards, who are yielding the most rebounds and fourth-most points in the paint this season.
While we can’t expect another outing near 40 DraftKings points, Tshiebwe is a threat for over 20 DraftKings points tonight, which would be an immense return at his bare minimum salary. This season, Tshiebwe is scoring 1.24 DraftKings PPM with a 20.5% usage rate.
