Consider rostering Paolo Banchero on Thursday, who has a matchup against the Blazers and their 27th-ranked defense.
Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. It’s been a pretty successful season so far, and I plan on continuing it with tonight’s five-game slate as we get through the coldest time of the year.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
Anthony Edwards (PG, SG, SF – MIN)
As an absolute smash play on FanDuel, Anthony Edwards seems quite appealing on both sites. While he is a bit pricier on DraftKings, which is rare to see, the Minnesota guard has tallied 37+ DraftKings points in eight straight games. So there’s a clear floor. In tonight’s matchup, there’s also a clear ceiling.
The Utah Jazz allow the third-most points to opposing shooting guards and the second-most overall to guards. Their defensive rating is low and this will be a big pace-up spot for the Timberwolves. Edwards has gone over 60 fantasy points four times in the last 13 games. That may not seem like a high percentage but given his opportunity and chance for a ceiling performance with a relatively low price tag, I’m happy to buy into him tonight.
It’s a little odd seeing LeBron James at the top of some projections but he’s the highest-priced player and truly inevitable, so don’t question it too much. He’s also facing the most buttery matchup known to man in the Washington Wizards, who sport the worst defense in the league and the fourth-fastest pace of play.
No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing power forwards than the Wizards, and I don’t expect their averages to improve tonight. I prefer James in cash games over GPPs because of his injury management history and the chance of a blowout where he doesn’t even play full minutes, despite his expected higher usage with no Anthony Davis. Still, it’s the Wizards. As I said before, don’t question it too much.
With such a low price, how can’t I go to Evan Mobley? The Hawks have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards where Mobley is at his lowest pricing since December. He’s coming off consecutive 40-point efforts, so I don’t get the price drop against the team playing at the fastest rate over the last month of play.
While the Hawks’ defense has improved, their frontcourt leaves more to be desired with a 14th overall defensive ranking this season. I also must note and prioritize the fact Cleveland is off a back-to-back. Despite coming home, there’s a chance Mobley doesn’t play. Mobley is finding his groove again. If he can score 22 points against Miami, he sure can find his offensive ceiling against Atlanta.
Sometimes, it always seems like Rudy Gobert finds himself on this list, but if he keeps staying lower priced (looking at you, DraftKings) with amazing matchups, I will keep going to him. Gobert has averaged 30 fantasy points a game with over 33 in his last five matchups. The Jazz allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers and they may not even be at full strength.
Both John Collins and Walker Kessler are listed as questionable for tonight’s game, so Minnesota may be going against a seriously depleted Utah frontcourt. The Timberwolves big man has averaged a double-double a game this year and has had higher scoring in the last couple of weeks. I’m quite comfortable with his expected floor output for your cash lineups.
While a steal on FanDuel, Reaves is less of a bargain on DraftKings. The Lakers are 8-point favorites with a total of 225 points. Someone has to score besides LeBron James. Reaves has been playing 36 minutes a night with a 22% usage rate recently, averaging 20 points a night.
The Wizards have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing point guards. Despite the significant price uptick on DraftKings, he’s one of the safer plays on the slate. He’s only gone below 26 DraftKings points in two of his last 16 games and has stayed above 32 in five straight. His floor is clear. With Anthony Davis out, his ceiling only gets higher.
The main reason why I like Vit Krejčí so much is his projected 34 minutes of playing time. He won’t exactly put up outstanding numbers but he has averaged 26 DraftKings points a night in his last six games without any real recent duds.
The guard-forward combo is always one I love as it helps with roster construction. The higher implied total against a Cavaliers team that might rest some players means it should be a friendlier matchup than the numbers might imply.
Sure, it’s easy to find the highest-priced point guard and say he’d be a good GPP play. I get it. But I must take notice with early rostership expected to fade Trae Young. There are many solid guard options tonight in friendly matchups like Anthony Edwards, Donovan Mitchell and Austin Reaves, so it makes sense why it doesn’t seem Young will be in as many lineups as his price tag may suggest.
It’s also not as if he’s been playing insanely hot, averaging 35 DraftKings points a night in his last five games, which may also push people off. But we’ve seen his ceiling. He’s gone over 60 fantasy points nine times with a couple of 70-point outputs. Cleveland isn’t the best matchup, but this is a great leverage option in your larger field GPPs.
I imagine everyone will either spend up to get to LeBron James or pass on Banchero for the lower-priced options. The Duke product’s price is in the middle ground, and I don’t imagine rostership to be particularly high, especially considering the game total of 213, which is the lowest on the slate. Still, Portland paces up Orlando (most teams do) with the 27th-ranked league defense.
Jerami Grant is questionable for Portland, which would bring their defense down even more. Jalen Suggs is questionable for the Magic, which would only help Banchero’s 30% usage rate. The Orlando forward has been steady since returning from injury and don’t forget about his 50-point scoring outing early this season. There’s a clear ceiling here at not that expensive of a price.
I was close to going with Alperen Sengun here, who is a solid play at center, but I expect him to see a fair amount of rostership that disqualifies him from GPP consideration. Of course, I’m looking at early morning rostership projections, which change drastically throughout the day. As of now, Amen Thompson seems like he will be surprisingly low-rostered. He’s guard-forward eligible, which already makes me drawn to him and he is going up against the fastest-paced team in the league.
Generally, most Houston options will be solid leverage/GPP choices with their possession rate and that they’ve been playing some great basketball recently, going 8-2 in their last 10 games. The Grizzlies’ defense ranks 24th in their last 10 games, so there should be plenty of opportunity for Thompson to get his fill.
You can pick any of the lower-tier Lakers and throw them on this list and I’d probably agree with you. Max Christie is the clear value choice here, though (Rui Hachimura is next best). On FanDuel, he’s in a smash spot with the potential highest return on investment. On DraftKings, his dual eligibility makes him useful in lineup construction. I expect him to be highly owned on both sites.
Over the last two weeks, the Laker guard has averaged 30 minutes a night. While his numbers don’t exactly jump out, he hasn’t faced the Washington Wizards every night. He doesn’t need a high usage rate to get you the necessary points. Christie projects for around 25 fantasy points with a high ceiling.
Is it lazy to say, “See Anthony Edwards?” For all the reasons I love Edwards, I’m more than happy to slot Mike Conley in as a value option against the Jazz. Again, only the Washington Wizards allow more fantasy points per game to opposing point guards than the Jazz.
Conley has also seen an uptick in play recently, not only garnering higher minutes but covering 22 fantasy points in four straight games with a 42-point effort against Dallas last week.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG – ORL)
For your GPP punt option of the day we have Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He’s averaged 19 DraftKings points a game this year. Honestly, even that would be decent tonight. Still, despite some valleys, he’s shown his share of peaks, going over 25 fantasy points. It’s not my favorite DFS play. I’ve never recommended a slower-paced game with no real floor, but any starter playing 35 minutes is hard to pass up with a continuing sinking price tag.
