NBA TV’s experts debate which team is currently the second-best team in the Western Conference.
The NBA’s Western Conference might have to start grading on the curve.
With 11 teams boasting records above .500 as of Thursday morning, it has been difficult to get much separation among the competitors, never mind anything resembling a bell-curve distribution of won-lost marks.
Oklahoma City, at 37-9 after its loss Wednesday night at Golden State, has returned to the pack a bit. All it took was losing twice in five games. The Warriors, Clippers, Mavericks and Timberwolves each picked up a game in the standings by winning, while the Thunder’s advantage over idle Houston (32-14) shrunk to just five games.
No one, least of all the Rockets, is conceding the West’s top seed to OKC. But Houston’s perch at No. 2 might be where the real action is over the final 40% or so of the regular season. Memphis is only 1 1/2 games behind in third place, and the whole bunch after that — from No. 4 that’s good for some homecourt advantage down to the SoFi Play-In Tournament contenders — are crowded within four games of each other.
“It’s reality,” Denver coach Michael Malone said the other night of the rigorous West. “If you want to call it daunting, you can. But that’s the Western Conference landscape. So you face it and understand what’s at stake every night.
“We started off the season and were 11-10. We found a much more consistent level of play. We’ve played a lot better. … But you can never come up for air in the West. Because if you do, there are a lot of teams that are willing to jump on top of you.”
Whenever we see a little separation in their ranks, the standings tighten again. So with apologies to Sacramento and Golden State — both 24-23 but tied for ninth behind too many rivals — here is a look at the eight West teams lined up behind Oklahoma City, with reasons why and why not they might climb as high as No. 2:
Why they might be No. 2: Well, because they hold the spot now and are looking up, not down, in the standings as they face Memphis Thursday (9:30 p.m. ET, TNT). The Rockets might be the most surprising — and surprised — group to top this list of Thunder chasers, but they are looking more and more legit. They have won four in a row and 10 of their last 12, and are 19-9 within the Western Conference.
Why they might not be: Only one of the Rockets’ next six games will be at home (which, hasn’t been a problem yet, at 17-7 on the road, but that could change). Big man Jabari Smith Jr. (left hand fracture) will miss his 14th consecutive game vs. the Grizzlies. And for all their toughness and ensemble sharing of responsibilities, there is an experience factor — none of these players was on the roster five seasons ago when the Rockets last reached the playoffs.
Why they might be No. 2: The Grizzlies have won six of seven heading into their clash with Houston. And they work hard at both ends, ranking fifth offensively and seventh defensively. Jaren Jackson Jr. is worthy of an All-Star reserve spot when those names are announced Thursday and he again is a top contender for Kia Defensive Player of the Year.
Why they might not be: Coach Taylor Jenkins has depth at his disposal and the results Jaylen Wells and Zach Edey in the starting lineup have been impressive so far, they both are rookies who will be sniffing NBA postseason intensity for the first time. While the Grizzlies are in striking distance of the team they’re chasing, they dropped the first three against Houston and need to take this series finale.
Why they might be No. 2: Denver has either the first- or second-best player in the conference in Nikola Jokić, and is a well-oiled offensive machine with the three-time Kia MVP in the hub of its attack. Its results at the scoring end have kept it comfortably above .500 despite being 18th in defensive efficiency. Key contributors have been swapped out, but there still are enough Nuggets from the 2023 championship team to provide an experience edge as the season winds down.
Why they might not be: Denver got pummeled in Minnesota, lost in Chicago and got pummeled again Wednesday in New York, a miserable start on their five-game trip. Giving up 128 points nightly is no way to spruce up a 14-11 road mark. Then there are the ghastly stretches when Jokić sits, a problem that should have been lessened by now.
Nikola Jokić’s historic tear continued with 35 points, 22 rebounds, 17 assists and an absurd 1-handed highlight vs. Sacramento.
Why they might be No. 2: OK, now we’re going to don the half-full glasses, given the gap from fifth — the two L.A. teams are tied at 10 1/2 games behind OKC — up to second. It’s 5 1/2 games, with three thriving teams over which to climb. Still, Anthony Davis paired with still-formidable LeBron James is a handful on any night. And few teams are better at picking up points when the clock is stopped (second in free throws-to-field goal attempts ratio).
Why they might not be: Injuries have stymied this team, and now Davis is hurt again. And this group doesn’t travel well, going 6-12 when they leave the state of California.
Why they might be No. 2: It’s all about Kawhi Leonard, who has played in four games in a row and nine of the Clippers’ past 13. They are 7-2 in those nine, including the handling of San Antonio Wednesday when scored 27. Last winter, the Clippers went 22-8 when the veteran wing returned from an injury and carried them for about two months.
Why they might not be: Defense isn’t a problem, as the Clippers rank second in efficiency. But scoring enough points can be as they are No. 20 in offensive rating. Having a losing road record and having a bunch of those games left on the schedule isn’t ideal either.
Kawhi Leonard returns to action looking like his old self, and as his minutes rise, the Clippers’ chances look better and better.
Why they might be No. 2: Minnesota plays many close games and tends to win them. That can be a source of too much drama, but clutchness is also a nice trait as playoff positioning draws near. Anthony Edwards has added a 3-point component to his game and looks more and more locked in, with All-Star Weekend as a nice reset button for him.
Why they might not be: At No. 14 offensively, there’s no denying that trading Karl-Anthony Towns has curtailed the Timberwolves’ scoring options. They haven’t gotten to the line as much this season. And Rudy Gobert’s impact has been more muted.
Why they might be No. 2: Resiliency has been central to Dallas staying afloat through injuries, most notably those to Luka Dončić and Dereck Lively II (and now Maxi Kleber, too). Kyrie Irving, P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford have shouldered the load through the multiple absences. The Mavs got to the NBA Finals last year as the fifth seed, so they know how to make a late push.
Why they might not be: Dallas has gone 7-11 playing without Dončić (left calf strain) since Christmas. Scraping by New Orleans on Wednesday to start their current five-game trip didn’t bode well, since the Mavs play at Cleveland and Boston before getting home again.
Why they might be No. 2: The Suns may be poised to make a trade or two by next Thursday, with Jimmy Butler the most speculated target. Good luck to them long-term if that happens, but for a stretch drive, Butler would be motivated and probably helpful. The Suns earn a lot of free throws and are No. 6 in 3-point accuracy.
Why they might not be: Certainly a swing-and-a-miss in the trade market would set the Suns back strategically and mentally. They’re 1-1 to start a string of 11 consecutive games within the West, but six of those are on the road (where Phoenix is 9-13).
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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Warner Bros. Discovery.
