For the second time in five years, the Buffalo Bills will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. These two teams have separated themselves as the best in the conference. Patrick Mahomes and Co. took care of the Houston Texans last week, while Josh Allen defeated Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in a battle of MVP favorites. Are you wondering how to bet this weekend? We’ve got you covered.
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Time: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Open: Chiefs -0.5, O/U 49.5
“This is all about Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen. The two quarterbacks have faced off three times previously in the playoffs and Mahomes has won all three. But their stats are close, with Mahomes having eight touchdowns and no picks to Allen’s seven and one.
The Bills beat the Chiefs earlier this season, but it’s those playoff failures that hang over this game for the Bills. They will spend all week hearing about “13 seconds” and Tyler Bass missing a game-tying field goal in last year’s loss. How do they get past it?
This team seems different than in past years. It is built for the playoffs. They don’t turn it over and Allen is playing his best football, even if his numbers aren’t as gaudy.
Mahomes also didn’t put up big numbers this year, but he’s come on lately as the offense has gotten healthier. It’s also the playoffs. We know that he will get the ball to Travis Kelce, who was outstanding last week.
That has to be the focal point for the Bills defense. Both teams want to run the ball, which will be the key to this one — even if on paper it looks like a classic Mahomes-Allen battle.
Allen is the better of the two with his legs, which gives the Bills a bit of an advantage. But Mahomes can move when need be.
The Chiefs have a major edge playing at home and they also have the playoff psychological edge as well. That usually matters. But, like I said, this Bills team is different. Allen is different.
It’s his time. The Bills won’t have to hear about “13 seconds” anymore as Allen gets this group to the Super Bowl.”
The pick: Bills +2
Projected score: Bills 24-23
To check out Prisco’s pick for the NFC Championship game, click here.
“Yes, we are betting against Patrick Mahomes. No, it does not feel good. But it might be the Bills’ time to finally get through much like — to borrow another 90s reference — Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls needed so many chances to get finally past the Bad Boy Pistons before breaking through and winning a title. The Bills aren’t playing firework-y football right now but they are playing smart football and haven’t been turning the ball over at all lately. Josh Allen has to believe he was snubbed for the MVP award based on the All-Pro voting and I expect another extremely clean game for the superstar quarterback. The Bills offensive line is probably the most unsung single unit in the entire NFL — they’ve been extremely dominant all season long and the Buffalo run game with James Cook has been superb this season. The Chiefs have been a little leakier against the run lately. I would expect the Bills to take full advantage and try to turn this into a slugfest with Mahomes needing to be perfect on a limited number of drives to win. The Bills need to get lucky on the defensive injury front with some guys being able to play and I would never be surprised if the Chiefs won. But this game should come down to whoever has the ball last (assuming it’s more than 12 seconds anyway, sheesh) and I think Buffalo finally gets it done.”
To check out Brinson’s other best bets for Sunday, click here.
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SportsLine NFL expert Mike Tierney, who is on a 47-30-4 roll on Bills games, has released his best bets for the AFC Championship game. We can tell you he’s leaning Under when it comes to the total, but to check out his official against-the-spread pick, head on over to SportsLine.
Before making your conference championship round NFL picks, you need to see our conference championship round NFL parlay from SportsLine’s proven computer simulation model that pays out well over $1.8 million on a $10 bet!
We can tell you Kareem Hunt first TD scorer is one leg at +1000, but to see the other legs and the model’s insight into each selection, check out SportsLine.
“Allen is keeping things a little closer to the vest it feels like, although I have an inkling he really uses his legs in this game. In his career against the Chiefs in the playoffs he has three games, featuring seven carries for 88 yards, 11 carries for 68 yards and 12 carries for 72 yards. He generally activates his legs more often in the playoffs and when the chips are down against the Chiefs he flat out becomes a second running back. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some early designed QB runs, particularly because the threat of Allen running only opens things up for Cook even more. And when they get down to the goal line in this game, I expect more of what we saw against Baltimore: Allen holding onto the ball and steaming into the end zone because it feels like the safest yard or two in football behind only the Philly Tush Push. This number still doesn’t reflect his goal-line usage.”
Will Brinson likes Allen to find the end zone on Sunday. To check out his other best bets for this week, click here.
“What kind of concerns me about the Chiefs is that they’re 0-1 against the Bills this season. Back in Week 11, the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21, but now that I’m thinking about it, I’m not sure that result actually means anything because the Bills ALWAYS beat the Chiefs in the regular season.
As a matter of fact, the Bills have won four straight regular-season games against the Chiefs and in two of those seasons, they ended up playing Kansas City again in the playoffs. Guess who won in the playoffs? Not the Bills.
Let’s take a look at their past seven games against each other:
2020 postseason: Chiefs 38-24 over Bills (AFC title game)
2021 regular season: Bills 38-20 over Chiefs
2021 postseason: Chiefs 42-36 in OT (divisional round)
2022 regular season: Bills 24-20 over Chiefs
2023 regular season: Bills 20-17 over Chiefs
2023 postseason: Chiefs 27-24 over Bills (divisional round)
2024 regular season: Bills 30-21 over Chiefs
If you’re scoring at home, the Bills have gone 4-0 in the regular season, but 0-3 in the postseason.
I’m almost starting to think that the Chiefs are losing the regular-season game on purpose just so that they’re extra motivated to beat the Bills in the playoffs.
If this was a regular-season game, that would be enough to convince me to pick the Bills, but this isn’t a regular-season game. It’s the playoffs and like they do every year, the Chiefs always seem to look unbeatable once the postseason starts.
A big reason the Chiefs beat Houston in the divisional round is because Travis Kelce finally decided to show up after taking off the final few weeks of the regular season. Over the final four games of the year, Kelce averaged just 46.5 yards per game with one touchdown, not to mention, he caught just two passes for 8 yards against the Bills in Week 11. However, I don’t expect a repeat of that performance and that’s because “Playoff Kelce” is here. “Playoff Kelce” is unstoppable and he proved it once again against the Texans when he caught seven passes for a season-high 117.
The man now has more 100-yard receiving games in NFL playoff history than Jerry Rice.
The Chiefs beat the Texans even though DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster combined to catch exactly zero passes. Basically, the Chiefs played one of their worst offensive games of the season and still won by two scores. I doubt we’re going to see them play two bad games in a row in the playoffs, because that NEVER happens (The Chiefs have never scored under 25 points in consecutive playoff games in Mahomes’ career)
On the Bills’ end, they’re playing some of their best football of the year, but problem for them is that this game is on the road. Yes, the Bills are 15-4 on the season, including the playoffs, but that breaks down like this:
The Bills played four road games against teams that eventually made the playoffs (Ravens, Texans, Lions, Rams) and they went 1-3 in those games. Allen hasn’t played as well on the road as he has at home, and let’s not forget about Buffalo’s defense. The unit only gave up 35 points or more in three games this season, and all of them came on the road. The Bills only gave up 425 yards or more in four games this season, and you guessed it, they all came on the road.
The Bills have had a great season, but I just can’t trust them on the road against a team that has ZERO home losses this year. Allen has the most playoff wins (7) of any QB in NFL history without making it to the Super Bowl and he could put an end to that streak with a win here, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.
Every time the Bills have been to a Super Bowl, they’ve played an NFC East team and with the Eagles and Commanders in the NFC title game, I think the football Gods are trying to nudge me to pick Buffalo, but I can’t pick against history and the Chiefs seem hellbent on making NFL history this year by becoming the first team ever to win three Super Bowls in a row.”
The pick: Chiefs -1.5
Projected score: Chiefs 26-23
To read Breech’s breakdown of the NFC Championship game, click here.
“People will go back and dive deeply into what went wrong for Kansas City and right for Buffalo in that Week 11 matchup, but the Chiefs are a different team in the playoffs. In the regular season, Kansas City went 0-6-1 against the spread when favored by six or more points. Sportsbooks were comfortable listing the Chiefs as 8-point favorites vs. the Texans last week, and Vegas was right, as the Chiefs covered as big favorites for the first time all season (unless you waited to bet the spread right before kickoff).
When it comes to the Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes series, it’s currently tied 4-4. Three of those eight matchups have come in the playoffs, and Mahomes has won every single one of them. Expect Travis Kelce to play a role in this matchup. Maybe that doesn’t sound like a hot take, but he caught just two passes for 8 yards in the first matchup with Buffalo, and had the worst statistical season since his rookie campaign, catching 97 passes for 823 yards and just three touchdowns. Naturally, Kelce then exploded for a season-high 117 yards receiving and a touchdown in the first game of the playoffs. He’s a postseason legend. No player has more 100-yard receiving games in the playoffs than him (9).
I think this game could come down to who wins or loses the turnover battle — similar to Buffalo’s last game vs. Baltimore. The Bills committed just eight turnovers this season, which ranked best in the league. The Chiefs weren’t far behind with 14 turnovers, but consider the fact that they haven’t turned the ball over since that loss in Buffalo. If it’s not the turnover battle, the Bills’ ability to get the Chiefs offense off the field will be important. Kansas City punted just twice vs. the Texans compared to its five scoring drives (ignoring the strategic safety).
Sorry, but I’m not going to bet on a team to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs.”
The pick: Chiefs -1.5
Projected score: Chiefs 26-23
To read Dajani’s breakdown of conference championship weekend, click here.
“This latest chapter in the Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes rivalry will bring more of the same. While these two quarterbacks are currently knotted with four wins apiece in their head-to-heads, Mahomes has dominated in the playoffs with a 3-0 record against Allen. Why I think that’s slated to continue? This AFC Championship matchup largely has to do with the Buffalo defense. Lost in the madness of the Bills’ divisional-round win over the Ravens was their continued struggles on third downs, allowing Baltimore to convert seven of its 10 opportunities. With cornerback Christian Benford in concussion protocol and safety Taylor Rapp nursing a hip injury that knocked him out of last week’s playoff game, the inability to get off the field on the key down isn’t expected to get any better. That gives Mahomes a tremendous advantage, and it doesn’t hurt that his go-to option in Travis Kelce has heated up now that the playoffs have arrived. While Buffalo may have won the regular-season matchup earlier this year, Kansas City wins when it matters most, continuing the theme of this rivalry. And the NFL’s first three-peat is still alive …”
The pick: Chiefs -1.5
Projected score: Chiefs 30-27
To read Sullivan’s picks this week, click here.
SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein is 30-16 on his last 46 picks involving the Chiefs, and he has just released his pick for the AFC Championship game. We can tell you he’s leaning Over on the total, but to check out his official against-the-spread pick, head on over to SportsLine.
