Even within a single NBA game, betting markets are abundant.
You can bet traditional markets like the spread or the total, but we’ve also got tons of player-prop markets to sift through.
Which bets stand out today as the Philadelphia 76ers face the Denver Nuggets?
Let’s dig into the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook’s NBA betting odds, utilizing FanDuel Research’s NBA projections to try to find value.
Tonight’s nationally televised showdown between the Philadelphia 76ers and Denver Nuggets has had some air taken out of it due to injuries.
Joel Embiid (knee) will miss (dodge) yet another game against Nikola Jokic. Jared McCain, Caleb Martin, and Kyle Lowry have all been ruled out, too, while Paul George, Andre Drummond, and Guerschon Yabusele are listed as questionable on Philadelphia’s injury report. Thus, the home team is favored by a whopping 13 points. That’s a pretty lengthy spread to cover, so my preferred route on getting in on Denver is targeting the over on their team point total.
The Nuggets are averaging a stampeding 126.3 points (second-most in the NBA) in their wins this season. They’ve scored over 121.5 points in 73.1% of victories.
Philadelphia struggles with the 10th-worst defensive rating in the league, as well as the fifth-worst DRTG across their last 15 games. Jokic and the Nuggets have played 14 games against bottom 12 defenses. In this split, Denver averaged 125.1 points and cleared 121.5 points at a powerful 71.4% rate, missing by the hook once.
The Nuggets have won 10 of their last 13 and scored over 121.5 points in all but three of those wins. With no key injuries to report, I like Denver to pick apart this ravaged Sixers team tonight.
Considering we have high hopes for Denver’s offense, Jamal Murray seems to be in an ideal spot to rack up stats.
On the season, Murray is averaging an even 30.0 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) and has cleared 28.5 PRA at a 55.6% rate — a tick up from the 54.1% implied probability on these -118 odds. If we take out two games Murray left early due to injury, he has cleared 28.5 PRA at a 58.8% rate.
As covered, Philadelphia’s 21st-ranked defense has gotten only weaker with injured players out. Murray has dominated meh competition this season, going for over 28.5 PRA in 75.0% of games against bottom 15 defenses.
To add, Murray is averaging 31.5 PRA in games won by the Nuggets this season, so Denver’s -710 moneyline odds have a decent correlation with a strong Murray performance. Our NBA projections expect him to notch 31.5 PRA in this matchup.
With four players in their rotation ruled out and three listed as questionable, the Sixers need someone not named Tyrese Maxey to score tonight. That someone could be Kelly Oubre.
Oubre has played at least 35 minutes in 10 of his last 12 games. He’s walked into a super strong role and has averaged 13.6 shot attempts in January, with 32.4% of his shot distribution coming from behind the arc.
Here’s a look at Oubre’s scoring production in a relevant six-game sample sans Embiid, McCain, and Martin: 19, 12, 8, 16, 18, and 19 points. He’s scored at least 15 points in seven of his last nine and will draw a friendly scoring matchup against Denver.
The Nuggets play at the fifth-fastest pace in the league. That has, in part, led to them giving up the sixth-most 3PA and second-most shot attempts per game. With an inviting scoring matchup on deck and an inevitably solid role heading Oubre’s way, our projections forecast him to tally 16.5 points tonight.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
