Friday’s main slate on DraftKings includes the first seven games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Leading the NBA in usage rate this season at 37.9%, Ball has outstanding with 1.5 DraftKings PPM. Up next for the guard is a terrific matchup with the Bulls. Chicago ranks third in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency, and this game’s total is the highest on the slate (235.5 points). The Hornets rank 16th in pace, so this is a massive pace increase for Ball, and the guard should flourish in this up-tempo setting.
Ball has competed in four totals of at least 230 points this season, and he has thrived with 57.7 DraftKings PPG in those tilts, via the Trends Tool. Ball is a great target to begin with, but his stock would see an additional boost if Brandon Miller (questionable, wrist) sits. With Miller off the floor this season, Ball’s usage increases 1.7 percentage points to a whopping 39.7%, via the On/Off Tool.
George (heel) returned from a five-game Wednesday and went off for 46 DraftKings points across 30 minutes vs. the Hornets. The second-year found himself with a huge role in his return, as he led the Jazz with a 35.8% usage rate, which was a product of Lauri Markkanen (back), Jordan Clarkson (foot), Collin Sexton (finger), and John Collins (hip) all being inactive. Sexton will return Friday, but the other three players will remain sidelined, along with Walker Kessler (rest). George should be one of Utah’s main options and this is a compelling matchup against a Pelicans defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency.
With Markkanen, Clarkson, Collins and Kessler off the court this season, George handles a 29.2% usage rate and a 27.8% assist percentage, resulting in 1.2 DraftKings PPM. George is clearly underpriced for this type of role and is one of the best values on the board Friday.
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Murphy has been outstanding recently. In his past two starts, Murphy has scored 54.5 DraftKings points vs. the Bulls and 52 DraftKings points vs. the Mavericks. The wing has exceeded 40 DraftKings points in eight of his past 12, with a 25.7% usage rate during this span.
Now, Murphy is facing a Jazz defense that is the second-worst unit in the league based on efficiency. Utah is allowing the fifth-most made three-pointers per game, which bodes well for a gunner like Murphy, who is averaging 8.7 attempts from beyond the arc this season. The Pelicans carry the highest implied team total on the slate and their highest implied team total of the season (121.25 points). In this spot, Murphy is a lock for at least 40 DraftKings points.
With Donte DiVincenzo (toe) out tonight, Alexander-Walker should see a large workload. DiVincenzo has yet to miss a game this season, but with the ex-Knick inactive tonight against his former team, our ShotQuality projections are slating Alexander-Walker for 28 minutes, giving him more than enough time to easily beat his near-minimum salary.
This season, Alexander-Walker is averaging 0.8 DraftKings PPM and 19.3 DraftKings PPG when he has cracked the 25-minute mark (14 games). Alexander-Walker is the No.1 shooting guard value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections, and either full punting with him or paying up for Murphy is the best way to handle the thin shooting guard position tonight.
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If Karl-Anthony Towns (questionable, thumb) remains inactive tonight, Hart will be a great GPP target. With Towns sidelined Wednesday vs. the 76ers, Hart tallied his fifth triple-double of the season, resulting in 60.25 DraftKings points. The veteran is amassing 44.4 DraftKings PPG with Towns out this season (four games), and Hart sees a 2.1 percentage point increase in his rebound rate with Towns off the floor.
While the Timberwolves rank sixth in defensive efficiency, Hart’s ability to stuff the stat sheet in all areas and his guaranteed huge playing time – he is averaging 37.5 minutes per game this season – gives him upside in any matchup. If Towns sits, Hart should top 40 DraftKings points and likely will come with low ownership at this season-high salary.
Sensabaugh is a no-brainer, with the Jazz continuing to be very short-handed. With Markkanen (back), Clarkson (foot), Sexton (finger), and Collins (hip) out Tuesday, Sensabaugh posted 30 DraftKings points across 30 minutes off the bench vs. the Hornets. The second-year forward has scored over 30 DraftKings points in four of his past seven games, and while Sexton will be back tonight, Markkanen, Clarkson, Collins and Kessler will all be out.
With Markkanen, Clarkson, Collins and Kessler off the floor this season, Sensabaugh’s usage has jumped 6.7 percentage points to 28.8%, and he has produced 1.2 DraftKings PPM, which are great numbers for a player priced this cheap. Facing a Pelicans defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, Sensabaugh is a must-play for all formats.
Antetokounmpo is in a great spot Friday. On top of facing a Raptors team that ranks seventh in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency, the Bucks will be at home, where Antetokounmpo is averaging 63.3 DraftKings PPG this season, which is a huge difference from his 56.5 average on the road. Antetokounmpo is scoring 1.7 DraftKings PPM with a 37.2% usage rate this season and Milwaukee’s implied team total is the second-highest on the slate Friday (120.25 points).
When playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season, Antetokounmpo is contributing 62.8 DraftKings PPG (eight games), via the Trends Tool. With Nikola Jokic’s (questionable, elbow) availability up in the air for a tough road matchup vs. the Heat, Antetokounmpo is the No.1 play on the slate and a worthy building block.
With Franz Wagner (oblique), Jalen Suggs (back), and Goga Bitadze (concussion) out, Isaac should see an expanded role off the bench. He only finished with 16.75 DraftKings points across 15 minutes with those three players inactive Wednesday vs. the Bucks, but this game was a 29-point loss for the Magic, limiting Isaac’s playing time. In their previous game, with Wagner and Suggs out and Bitadze only available for a half, Isaac recorded a double-double of 41.75 DraftKings points in 27 minutes vs. the 76ers, both of which set season highs for Isaac.
Orlando is a 13.5-point underdog vs. the Celtics tonight, but the Magic should make this a competitive affair, with Boston struggling as of late. The Celtics are coming off an embarrassing 13-point loss to the Raptors, and they have dropped three of their last five. Furthermore, the Magic have been Boston’s kryptonite the last few seasons, beating them in five of their last seven matchups with the Celtics. All in all, we shouldn’t be concerned about a huge blowout impacting Isaac’s minutes, and he should be roughly around 25 minutes, putting him in a prime position to beat this cheap salary. With Wagner, Suggs, and Bitadze off the floor this season, Isaac is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Amid the Celtics’ recent struggles, Porzingis has been putting up strong numbers, with 43.6 DraftKings PPG in his last four starts. The big man is scoring 1.24 DraftKings PPM with a 24.8% usage rate this season, and he has been 3.0 DraftKings PPG better at home than when on the road. The Magic are a tough matchup, ranking second in defensive efficiency, but the Celtics still carry a very healthy 113-point implied team total this evening.
Porzingis should exceed 5x value at this reasonable $7,000 salary and he should come with single-digit ownership in GPPs, given the unappealing matchup.
Of all the Jazz players out tonight, Kessler being inactive is the most important for Eubanks. The veteran has been Kessler’s primary backup, and with him missing tonight, Eubanks should start at center for the Jazz. Our ShotQuality projections are forecasting him for 28 minutes, and Eubanks is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM with Markkanen, Clarkson, Collins and Kessler off the floor this season.
The Pelicans are giving up the second-most points in the paints and fourth-most rebounds in the league, and Eubanks is a threat for over 30 DraftKings points in this spot. By no means does his $4,100 salary reflect his projected workload, and Eubanks is the best value available for this slate.
