There are a couple of heavy favorites this weekend in the NFL playoffs’ divisional round, and history suggests at least one of them won’t cover the spread. Since 2002, when the league expanded to 32 teams, home favorites of seven points or more have never gone undefeated against the number, per TruMedia. The teams that didn’t cover missed by an average of 10 points.
This isn’t to say these heavy home favorites won’t advance – they have a record of 32-12 straight up in this round – but laying the points is not always lucrative (19-24-1 against the spread).
Best bets record in 2024-25: 19-32.
Picks were made against the consensus point spreads as of Tuesday morning; odds that have since changed have been updated in bold type, but picks are locked in at the earlier odds.
Saturday, 1:30 p.m. | ESPN, ABC
Pick: Over 41½ points (The pick is Chiefs -7½, but it is not a best bet)
Houston has an excellent defense, ranking No. 1 in Aaron Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average (which measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every play to a league average based on situation and opponent). Its offense, on the other hand, is below average at No. 24. Kansas City, which is coming off a week of rest from its first-round bye, is more balanced with an offense ranked eighth and a defense ranked 12th.
That’s one reason the Chiefs have a good chance of covering in this one, especially if they’re able to get pressure on Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, who was the second-most-sacked quarterback (52 times) during the regular season behind Chicago’s Caleb Williams (68). Not surprisingly, Houston’s point production declines on drives with at least one sack. Since its offense isn’t efficient to begin with, the effect was more detrimental than it was to most teams.
The stronger play in this game is the over. Since 2002, when a team with a DVOA profile like Houston’s (strong on defense but not on offense) faces a more balanced team like Kansas City, the final total averages 44 points. The matchups yield 42 or more points almost two-thirds of the time.
Saturday, 5 p.m. | Fox 28
Pick: Commanders team total under 22½ points (The pick is Commanders +8½, but it is not a best bet)
Washington has been on a heck of a run, but it is in for a big challenge Saturday night. Most notably, the Commanders’ poor defensive play – they rank 24th in defensive DVOA – could keep their offense off the field. Per the game charters at Pro Football Focus, Washington ranks 28th in run defense, while Detroit ranks third in run blocking. Washington ranks 29th at covering receivers, while Detroit ranks seventh in passing.
Yes, Washington has a dynamic offense and coach Dan Quinn has shown a willingness to go for it on fourth down to keep drives alive, but that advantage is mitigated somewhat against a similarly bold Detroit team. If the Lions can sustain drives, it will be tough for the Commanders to get scoring chances of their own.
Sunday, noon | NBC
Pick: Matthew Stafford under 226½ passing yards (The pick is Eagles -6, but it is not a best bet)
Lincoln Financial Field has not been an inviting environment for opposing quarterbacks. The Eagles, who stifled Green Bay in their first-round win, boast the second-best pass defense in the NFL, per DVOA – and no player has accumulated more than 212 passing yards against the Eagles in Philadelphia since Week 2.
I believe this line is being influenced by Stafford’s 243-yard performance against the Eagles in Week 12, but that was at SoFi Stadium.
Sunday, 3:30 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Khalil Shakir over 51½ receiving yards (The pick is Ravens -1½, but it is not a best bet)
This game is the toughest handicap of the weekend. Both teams have an MVP-caliber quarterback, and both are on the short list of Super Bowl contenders. The line opened with the Bills as slight favorites; that has since swung to the Ravens.
But there is one play that stands out – Shakir’s receiving yardage total. Baltimore has struggled to cover No. 1 wide receivers, allowing Cincinnati star Ja’Marr Chase to total 193 receiving yards in Week 5 and 264 yards in Week 10, and Denver’s Courtland Sutton to catch seven of 10 targets for 122 yards in Week 9. Davante Adams and Rashee Rice also broke the 100-yard milestone against Baltimore.
Shakir might not be viewed the same way as those receivers from a pure talent standpoint, but he has been highly productive as a slot receiver in Buffalo’s balanced passing attack, including totaling 62 receiving yards, which was higher than his season average of 54.7, in the Bills’ regular season loss to Baltimore. Moreover, the Ravens haven’t been great against slot receivers, allowing a higher completion rate (69%) than they have to outside wideouts (60%) and yielding 54 or more yards to slot receivers five times.
