Can Lamar Jackson breeze past the Steelers in Wildcard Weekend?
USA Today’s Tyler Dragon doesn’t think we’ll be seeing “playoff” Lamar Jackson this weekend, but maybe if they play in Kansas City.
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The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers split the season series of their AFC North rivalry. They’ll have a rare chance to add a rubber match to the series during the 2025 NFL playoffs.
The Ravens and Steelers are meeting in the postseason for the first time since 2015 when Baltimore won 30-17 over Pittsburgh in the wild-card round. This season, the Ravens are looking to return to the AFC championship (and beyond), while the Steelers are looking to win their first playoff game since 2016.
Bettors should be intrigued by this matchup for one key reason. These two teams have already played twice, including once very recently, so plenty of data is available to help predict which players may have breakout performances in the heated rivalry.
What are the best bets for the Ravens vs. Steelers NFL playoff game? Here’s a look at the top player props and anytime TD scorers to back on wild card weekend.
All odds are via BetMGM as of Friday.
Wilson has shown more willingness to use his legs in recent weeks. He has rushed for at least 13 yards in five consecutive games, so this pick might seem odd to some. That’s especially true given that Wilson ran for 27 yards on three carries against the Ravens just a few weeks ago.
Why should we fade Wilson in this spot, then? The Ravens have actually allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks this season and have limited them to just 3.45 yards per carry on the season. That will make it hard for Wilson to surpass this total unless he runs more often than usual or breaks off a longer run, just as he did when he ran for 19 yards on his longest tote against Baltimore in Week 16.
It’s also worth noting that Wilson has tended to run more during games where the Steelers are playing from behind. They are underdogs in this playoff matchup, but if Pittsburgh can keep it closer than expected or even build a lead against Baltimore, he may not have to do much with his legs.
The Ravens’ defense has gone from leaky to elite in the second half of the NFL season, but they still have issues against receivers. They allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wide-outs this season and struggled to contain Pickens in the one game he played against them this year (eight catches, 89 yards).
Pickens caught just one pass for no yards on six targets in the Steelers’ Week 18 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, but he had a couple of drops in that contest. If he comes into Saturday’s game a bit more focused, he should be able to make his typical downfield chunk plays and easily go over this modest receiving total.
The Ravens will be without their top receiver, Zay Flowers, in this contest as he recovers from a leg injury suffered in the team’s Week 18 win over the Cleveland Browns. That could open the door for more targets, receptions and yardage for the team’s tight end duo, which should bode well for Andrews.
Andrews has averaged 50 receiving yards per game over his last five outings while receiving five targets per game during that stretch. He figures to see a higher volume of opportunities with Flowers out of action, so don’t be surprised if he racks up a handful of catches in the first-round contest.
The Steelers have allowed the second-most receptions to tight ends this season (106). While some may be tempted to bet Andrews to score a touchdown (+130) – he has scored in six consecutive games and led the league’s tight ends with 11 touchdowns – it’s worth noting that he has only one touchdown in 11 career games against the Steelers. Granted, that came in their Week 16 matchup this season, but still, backing the veteran to find the end-zone is riskier than usual.
If you’re looking for a tight end to score a touchdown, look no further than Likely. He ranks second on the Ravens in red-zone targets with 13, just two behind Andrews’ 15, so he could have an opportunity to find paydirt against a Steelers defense that has allowed seven tight ends to the position (tied for eighth-most league-wide).
Likely has averaged 52 yards per game against the Steelers this season and scored in his last game against them. If Pittsburgh gives more attention to Andrews with Flowers out, that could open the door for Likely to have some open looks in and around the end zone.
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