WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Sony Open teeing off from Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, HI! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the Sony Open starting on January 9th!
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| Sony Open | Sony Open Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | January 9-12 |
| Where: | Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, HI |
| Defending Champ: | Grayson Murray |
| Current Favorite: | Hideki Matsuyama (+900 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel, NBC |
Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)
The 2nd week of the Aloha Swing tees up this week at Waialae Country Club which for several in the field, is only a quick puddle jumper flight from island to island.
Waialae is a much different track than Kapalua. Waialae is flat with a total course elevation change of just 10 feet and it is short, playing as a par 70 maxing out at just over 7,000 yards. Even though the course is along the Hawaiian coast, there is actual minimal water that comes into play.
The course features only two par 5s and is considered a second-shot course. More than 50% of iron shots come from under 150 yards so look for those players that rank high in the 100-150 yard ranges which you can find on the PGA Tour website.
Also different from last week, this week features a full field of 144 players with a standard 36-hole cut, meaning don’t expect to get paid if you get off to a slow start.
The trend that had been worth putting your money behind is to back those that had teed it up the week prior at The Sentry as eight of the last 11 winners had done so.
However, the last two winners, Grayson Murray last year (who sadly passed away in May) and Si Woo Kim in 2023 did not.
Making that change of trend even stranger is it coincided with the expansion of the field at The Sentry which should only make that trend even more likely to continue. Odd, to say the least.
The long-term trend does makes sense though, the best players tend to play in The Sentry and playing in back-to-back events after an irregular couple of months when it comes to tournament schedules certainly helps.
So, despite the last two years, I’m not ready to buck the trend. Currently, 35 of last week’s field have committed to playing.
Last year, 17-under got you into a playoff and this year is likely to be similar though winds will gradually ramp up as the week goes on starting 10-15 mph before reaching closer to 15-25 by Sunday.
Temps will be steady at right around 80 degrees all week and rain, though always a possibility in Hawaii, doesn’t appear to be a major threat.
Winner: Hideki Matsuyama +900 (Everywhere) | Top-10 +130 (DraftKings)
Doesn’t take a lot of guts to throw this name out here after his performance last week, but he also won here in 2022. Both Ernie Els and Justin Thomas have completed the ‘Aloha Double’, so why can’t Matsuyama?
He ranks #1 in this field in Total SG over the last 12 months, 6 months, and three months. Any way you slice it, he is the cream of the crop this week. But, going back-to-back is tough, so back it up with a Top-10 bet in case he falls just short.
Winner: Harry Hall +5000 (FanDuel or BetMGM) | Top-20 +220 (DraftKings)
There is only one player in thie field that has finished inside the Top-15 in each of their last four starts and yep, you guessed it, Harry Hall.
While that likely will come as a surprise to the more casual golf bettor, those who have been paying attention are certainly not surprised.
It extends a longer streak going back to the John Deere Classic in which he has finished outside the Top-25 just three times including a win at the ISCO Championship.
While Hall’s driver can leave something to be desired, his short game and especially putting, have been elite, gaining strokes in each of his last 13 measured starts with the flat stick and in 12 of 13 around the green. That should keep him in the game once again this week.
See you next week for The American Express!
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