There might not be a better single day for a specific sport than Christmas for basketball. The NBA gives us 12-plus hours of hoops from a carefully curated group of the league’s most interesting teams. Pick the games you’re most excited to see before the season, and odds are, that game is going to get played on Christmas.
Structurally speaking, Christmas is a perfect day for basketball betting. There’s only one game played at a time. Without overlap, you can reset after each game, adjust your units, reconsider lines and dive back in when the opportunity strikes. So let’s go through Wednesday’s five games and pick the best bets from each to preview the NBA’s Christmas extravaganza.
All games on Wednesday are being broadcast on ABC and will be streaming on fubo (Try for free).
The name of the game against Victor Wembanyama is spacing. The Knicks are going to want to keep him as far away from the basket as possible to create reasonable driving lanes for their ball-handlers, and the easiest way to do that is to make sure their center is shooting 3s. San Antonio could counter by putting Wembanyama on Josh Hart, the weakest Knicks shooter, so he can serve as a helper, but Hart is making 40% of his 3s this season and giving Karl-Anthony Towns a mismatch when he is playing as well as he is seems like a nonstarter. So expect Wembanyama to guard Towns, and for the Knicks to be intentional about Towns shooting 3s to keep him the Defensive Player of the Year favorite away from the basket. The Pick: Towns Over 2.5 3s
We saw this matchup in the playoffs a season ago, and Dallas won it comfortably, but more pertinently, the Timberwolves are just a mess right now. They miss the spacing Towns brought. The decline of Mike Conley and the introduction of Julius Randle has removed a lot of the offense’s structure. The defense has gone from impenetrable to garden variety good. I just can’t reasonably pick a team playing this chaotically to win on the road against a Dallas team that has come together beautifully over the last few weeks. The Mavericks are 8-2 in their last 10. Luka Doncic is ready to make his MVP push. These are just two teams moving in different directions. The Pick: Mavericks -5.5
Derrick White loves playing the Sixers. He averaged over 18 points per game against them last season and 16 points per game against them the year before, and keep in mind, his overall scoring wasn’t nearly as high as it is now. Philly’s slow front court and terrible point-of-attack defense just brings the best out of White. Expect him to be aggressive in a game the Celtics should control. The Pick: White Over 14.5 Points
Hey, speaking of messes, the Warriors are 3-10 in their last 13 games. They’re still working Dennis Schroder into the fold, and the Lakers obviously know Schroder quite well. The Lakers are by no means perfect, but they’ve quietly tightened a few things up lately. Their once-abhorrent defense ranks No. 2 in the NBA over the past six games, hardly a meaningful sample, but at least the effort and energy has improved. This is the fourth time LeBron James and Stephen Curry have met on Christmas, and while Curry’s team was favored in all three, James won two of them outright. Games between them tend to be reasonably close, so even if the Warriors win, I like having those extra points in my back pocket in case it goes down to the wire. The Pick: Lakers +4
Yes, on paper, this should be a shootout. But these two teams just played on Monday in a game that produced 207 total points. Jamal Murray, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Grayson Allen all missed the game and it is unclear who will actually be available for this one. The Suns rank 23rd in pace. The Nuggets take the fewest 3-pointers in the NBA. There are just too many reasons why this game could be low-scoring to take such a high over. The Pick: Under 233.5
