DENVER — There was a point in the third quarter of Sunday’s turnover-infested game between the Colts and Broncos when it appeared that Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor had scored a 41-yard touchdown to put the Colts up 20-7. At this point, Broncos quarterback Bo Nix was struggling badly with interceptions and the Denver offense hadn’t done much of anything. You could have reasonably concluded that this was not Denver’s day and that Indy was about to tighten up the AFC wild-card race considerably.
You would have been overreacting. It turns out, Taylor made the incomprehensible mistake of dropping the ball right before crossing the goal line. The play was reviewed and ruled a touchback — with the score remaining 13-7 and Denver receiving the ball on its own 20-yard line. From that moment, the Broncos outscored the Colts 24-0 and likely finished off Indy’s season. It was a hideous game that saw the Colts turn the ball over five times and the Broncos three times, but Denver got it together in time to win 31-13 despite being outgained 310 to 193 in yards.
It was a high-impact result at the back end of the AFC playoff field, so we want to begin Week 15 overreactions — where we judge a few potential takeaways as legitimate or irrational — right there.
Jump to:
AFC playoff field is already set?
49ers should wait on Purdy’s extension?
Bills and Lions will meet again in Super Bowl?
Daboll and Schoen will be out in New York?
Eagles’ passing offense is fine?
The Broncos’ victory improved their chances of making the playoffs to 94%, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. The AFC West champion Chiefs, AFC East champion Bills and AFC South champion Texans (the Colts’ loss clinched Houston’s second straight division title) have all locked up their spots. The Steelers haven’t clinched their division yet, but they have clinched a playoff spot. There’s four.
The Ravens have a 99% chance to make the playoffs, and even the Chargers — who lost to the Buccaneers on Sunday to slip behind Denver in seeding — have a 90% chance to make the postseason. That’s seven teams with chances of 90% or better with three weeks to go. This sounds pretty academic.
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Jonathan Taylor drops ball before crossing goal line
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor is headed for a 41-yard touchdown, but he drops the ball before crossing the goal line, and the Colts surrender a touchback to the Broncos.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Ninety percent is not 100%! The Colts, Dolphins and Bengals are all 6-8, and if any of them win out, they’d finish 9-8. That means that if, for example, the Chargers lost all of their remaining games and finished 8-9, a spot would still be open for one of those other three squads. Now, the Chargers don’t seem likely to lose out. They have a home game against the Broncos this Thursday and finish with road games in New England and Las Vegas. But weird things happen.
Cincinnati’s final three games are home against the Browns, home against the Broncos and then at the Steelers in Week 18, when Pittsburgh might not have anything at stake. If the Broncos lose their three remaining games — at the Chargers, at the Bengals and home against the Chiefs (who also may not have anything to play for but could still be trying to hold off Buffalo for the No. 1 seed) — and the Bengals win all three, things would change here. They’d both be 9-8, and Cincinnati would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Yes, a lot of other things would have to happen, and we can’t know for sure how the three-way or four-way tiebreakers would work out among multiple 9-8 teams. That’s why the Broncos are at 94% and the Chargers are at 90%. But again, they’re not at 100%, and a three-game losing streak isn’t inconceivable for any of these teams. Get back to me in a week or two and let’s talk about this again.
San Francisco’s quarterback is eligible for a contract extension this offseason for the first time. He will have one year left on his rookie contract, and because he wasn’t a first-round pick, the team does not hold a fifth-year option on his deal. Purdy has been a supreme bargain for the 49ers, performing as one of the best QBs in the league while earning less than $1 million per year. He’s scheduled to make $1.1 million in 2025. But if the 49ers want to keep him around, they’ll have to jack that number up quite a bit — and most teams that extend their drafted QBs do so after Year 3.
Purdy led the NFL last season with a QBR of 73.4. This year, he’s down to 64.9, which ranked ninth in the league entering Sunday’s games. And in Thursday night’s ugly loss to the Rams, Purdy was 14-for-31 for 142 yards and an interception as the injury-riddled Niners fell to 6-8 for the season.
The 49ers are confronting a number of difficult decisions this offseason with their expensive veteran players, and paying Purdy top-of-market quarterback money isn’t going to make it easier to manage their cap in the coming years. Purdy might not ask for the $60 million per year that Dak Prescott is getting (though he has been to two more conference championship games and one more Super Bowl than Prescott), but it’s hard to imagine him signing for less than $50 million annually. That’s a major commitment for a team that’ll have to replace several cornerstone players in the near future.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
First of all, Purdy has earned the extension. He has accomplished more in his first three season than, for example, Trevor Lawrence did, and the Jaguars extended Lawrence at $55 million a year last offseason without batting an eye. And while the points about San Francisco’s pending rebuild and its challenges are all valid, the hardest thing to find — by far — is a good starting quarterback. The 49ers have one. (One they tripped over with the last pick of the 2022 draft, but a true starter who has won more than a few big games for them nonetheless.)
It might not be easy, but if Purdy digs in his heels, the 49ers certainly have the option to franchise him in 2026 and 2027. That threat might save them a couple of bucks if Purdy wants the deal done this offseason. Regardless, coach Kyle Shanahan has a quarterback he likes, trusts and believes in, and the modern NFL tells us the 49ers can’t let that out of the building.
The game of the day went to Buffalo and superhuman quarterback Josh Allen, as the Bills beat the Lions 48-42 in Detroit. It was the second week in a row that the Bills gave up more than 40 points, which is obviously concerning. But since their Week 12 bye, they have averaged 41.7 points per game, and Allen looks like he’s on an inexorable path to his first MVP.
Not to be outdone, Lions quarterback Jared Goff racked up 494 passing yards and threw five touchdown passes in the loss. Yes, that means the Lions have now won a game this season in which Goff threw five interceptions and lost a game in which he threw five touchdowns. That’s really weird, but the upshot here is that these are two somewhat unstoppable offenses with a combined record of 23-5, and it’s worth asking whether they could see each other again in New Orleans in the Super Bowl.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
There are legitimate concerns for both teams on defense. The Lions seem to lose a key defensive player to injury every week, and this week was no exception; defensive lineman Alim McNeill (knee) and cornerback Carlton Davis III (jaw) both suffered serious injuries that coach Dan Campbell indicated postgame could be season-ending. The Bills, meanwhile, gave up 44 points to the Rams last Sunday (four days before the Rams scored just 12 against the 49ers) and then 42 more this week, and they probably have to tighten up on that side of the ball if they’re going to win multiple playoff games in January.
1:19
Josh Allen bolsters MVP case with 4 TDs vs. Lions
Josh Allen has a night to remember as he throws two touchdowns and runs in another two in a statement win over the Lions for the Bills.
But Sean McDermott and the Bills have shown an ability to fix their defensive problems midstream and could do so again. And Detroit has some depth on defense and is well coached under Campbell and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. We know both of these teams can outscore anyone, too.
The Bills still have to get past the Chiefs, of course, and the Lions are try to hold off the Eagles for the No. 1 seed in the NFC (and the Vikings and Packers in their own division). But these teams have played as well as any in the NFL all season, and they deserve to be counted among the strong favorites to win their respective conferences.
The Giants lost 35-14 at home to the Ravens on Sunday. Third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito started the game, but he left with a concussion and gave way to fourth-string QB Tim Boyle, who managed to throw the Giants’ first passing touchdown since Nov. 3. The Giants were — as has become their December custom — not competitive.
The Giants are 2-12 and looking at a strong chance at the first-overall NFL draft pick at this point. They have the league’s worst offense (14.4 points per game). And things have gotten so bad that fans have taken to flying planes over the stadium begging team owner John Mara to fire people.
Brian Daboll was Coach of the Year in 2022, his first year with the team. The Giants reached the second round of the playoffs that season with Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley. But both of those players are gone, and Daboll’s second and third years have gone about as badly as anyone could have imagined. He and GM Joe Schoen both came in at the same time from Buffalo. They were charged with dragging the franchise out of its losing doldrums, and with the exception of that first season, they very much have not gotten it done.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Mara was on record a few weeks ago saying he expected Daboll and Schoen to be back in 2025. But he was saying the same things about Joe Judge at this time three years ago before an unimaginably bad finish to the season changed his mind (and led to the hiring of Daboll and Schoen). Mara does not want to change coaches and GMs again after multiple new hires since moving on from Tom Coughlin following the 2016 season. Daboll has actually lasted longer in the job than any of his three predecessors, but Mara recognizes that constant turnover in those positions is no way to establish long-term success. That could be what saves Daboll and Schoen.
But what bothers Mara even more is the idea that his team is irrelevant. Hearing Ravens fans chant “MVP” for Lamar Jackson at MetLife Stadium while the home team is getting run over in Week 15 is the kind of thing Giants ownership can’t abide. And if the Giants don’t play better in their final three games — or at least show more fight — then it’s absolutely possible the Giants will be moving on from Daboll and Schoen after just three years.
Oh boy, did Philadelphia give us some juicy stuff to talk about this past week. Receiver A.J. Brown says “passing” when asked what was wrong with the offense. Edge rusher Brandon Graham goes on his own radio show and says Brown and QB Jalen Hurts don’t seem to be friends anymore. Many, many questions about whether this Eagles team was about to fall apart the way last season’s Eagles team did were floated.
The Eagles insisted throughout the week this was not the case, and then they backed it up with a 27-13 victory over the Steelers in which Hurts had 290 passing yards and Brown had 110 receiving yards. It was the Eagles’ 10th win in a row, and at 12-2, they’re now tied with the Lions for the best record in the NFC.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
They told us they’d be fine, and then they were, beating up on a tough Steelers defense on a relatively quiet day for their usual offensive engine, running back Saquon Barkley. They beat the Steelers by passing, and they have every right to stand there tonight and tomorrow and all week and say they told us so.
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Hurts and Brown connect for an Eagles TD
Jalen Hurts finds A.J. Brown in the end zone for the first touchdown of the game.
This season’s Eagles have so far answered every December question that last year’s Eagles couldn’t. They have a real shot at the No. 1 seed and look a lot more like the team that went to the Super Bowl two seasons ago than the one that lost in the first round of the playoffs last season. It’s possible they’re even more dangerous than they were two years ago because of Barkley and because they’ve been through some adversity together now, coming out the other side looking great. Philly is dangerous, and Sunday showed they can win games in multiple different ways.
