There are only three weeks remaining in the 2024 NFL regular season, but about a quarter of the league’s teams are already looking ahead to 2025. The next month for those franchises is about building for the future as they vie for the top pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
The race for the No. 1 overall draft spot continues to thin out. The New York Jets’ win over the Jacksonville Jaguars effectively eliminates New York from the No. 1 race. After having the fourth-best odds for the No. 1 pick in the league last week, the Jets now have less than one percent odds of finishing with the top pick at 4-10.
Only five teams remain with more than a two percent chance to finish with the No. 1 overall pick. Scenarios continue to consolidate around the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders. While the Raiders do not play until Monday night, the Giants’ loss to the Baltimore Ravens now has them at nearly one-in-two odds of securing the top pick.
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Lamar Jackson’s 5 TDs launch Ravens past Giants 35-14: Takeaways
The Giants didn’t need a last-second field goal block to secure an uptick in their odds this week. Baltimore handled business in a thorough dismantling of the Giants, with Lamar Jackson throwing five touchdowns against the Giants’ secondary.
New York may be down to their fourth-string quarterback after losing this game. After Drew Lock was placed in a walking boot and ruled out of Sunday’s game, Tommy DeVito exited the game with a concussion. He was replaced by practice squad elevation Tim Boyle, who finished the game. With a daunting schedule remaining and a quarterback roster continuing to thin out, it’s tough to imagine the Giants stumbling into a win and falling out of pole position.
Remaining schedule: at Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, at Philadelphia Eagles.
The Raiders will have more concrete odds after Monday night’s game against the Atlanta Falcons. Until then, though, the Raiders’ odds have slightly slipped down from 35 percent last week. The Raiders remain in second place behind the Giants because of the weaker strength of schedule. However, Las Vegas also keeps losing key players. Less than a week after quarterback Aidan O’Connell was carted off the field, defensive end Maxx Crosby confirmed he will undergo season-ending ankle surgery. Strength of schedule will be key to deciding between Las Vegas and the Giants, and right now, Las Vegas has an easier schedule. If the losses pile up and they lose out, the Raiders can secure the top spot.
Remaining schedule: Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, at New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Chargers.
New England’s result from their game against the Arizona Cardinals has yet to be updated because they are still playing, so the Patriots are at the mercy of the rest of the league. Following their bye, the Patriots’ odds remained consistent after falling just 1 percent in the early window. New England needs losses from both Las Vegas and New York to even be competitive in the top overall pick rate, but they remain one of the most competitive three-win teams for the top overall pick. With two games against the Buffalo Bills in the next three weeks, New England should remain competitive for the top pick as the season progresses.
Remaining schedule: at Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills.
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Cowboys dominate Panthers 30-14 to keep slim playoff hopes alive: Takeaways
Carolina’s string of one-score losses to competent teams ended Sunday with a blowout 30-14 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. After showing a lot of positive growth over the last few weeks, the Panthers reminded the league that this is a team still very much in need of a top pick in this year’s draft. They’ll likely vie for a top-five pick in 2025, but the odds Carolina finishes with their top overall pick in back-to-back seasons (last year’s was traded to Chicago as part of the move-up to get Bryce Young) is small and continues to shrink.
Remaining schedule: Arizona Cardinals, at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at Atlanta Falcons.
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Mahomes’ ankle sprain overshadows Chiefs’ 21-7 win vs. Browns: Takeaways
There were no Jameis Winston-fueled surprises against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Cleveland handily lost 21-7 to the Chiefs, but losses hardly matter in an already-lost season. The real issue for the Browns is the increasing number of injuries piling up. Cleveland lost running back Nick Chubb in the third quarter to a broken foot, while Myles Garrett briefly exited Sunday with an eye injury.
Remaining schedule: at Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, at Baltimore Ravens.
(Photo: Luke Hales / Getty Images)
