The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire’s NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA’s official injury report.
I’m not breaking key news that the Washington Wizards defense is bad, but the Denver Nuggets‘ contribution to this lofty game total might be a bit undersold.
Denver, a stalwart in the top 12 of defensive rating (DRTG) and bottom 5 of pace in the previous three seasons, has uncharacteristically shifted. The Nuggets have the 10th-worst DRTG in the NBA (114.0) while playing at its 5th-fastest pace.
The team has a 115.9 DRTG in games that Aaron Gordon has played, so he’s been no cure-all, either.
Rather than just bet an undervalued Wizards team total, this is also a team that’s given up at least 120 points in four of their last five games and now draw whom many argue is the best player on Earth. This one screams “over” at a line that should rise throughout Saturday.
However, out of necessity, expect to see a strong showing from Washington rookie Alexandre Sarr opposite Nikola Jokic.
For whatever reason, the Nuggets have struggled on the interior this season, allowing the 16th-most points and 7th-most rebounds to opposing centers. Though the 19-year-old Sarr isn’t quite the mammoth force at center you’d hope, he’s as close as the Wiz will get.
He’s quietly begun to ascend in the wake of Kyle Kuzma‘s rib injury, too. He’s averaged 11.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per 36 minutes in three games since the forward went down.
Out of a necessity for size, our NBA DFS projections expect 33.1 minutes on the floor for Sarr in this positive matchup. That leads to a median projection of 14.1 points and 7.6 rebounds.
The Dallas Mavericks are rolling.
They’ve won six in a row since Luka Doncic returned to the lineup, topping 120 points scored in five of those efforts. They’ve got a tremendous matchup to make it seven in a row with six high-scoring efforts.
Not known for defense, the rebuilding Toronto Raptors are 9th in the NBA in DRTG (115.3) and play at the league’s 13th-fastest pace. Jakob Poeltl (illness) is the one question mark of note on their injury report, but they’ve got an identical 116.4 DRTG with him on or off the floor.
numberFire expects 122.8 median points for Dallas in this positive matchup. As they go step-for-step with the Oklahoma City Thunder out west, it’s worth noting OKC just posted 129 points in this building on Thursday.
One of the reasons Dallas might get to a lofty total is forward PJ Washington.
Washington’s props have finally stabilized after a supernova run with Doncic out of the lineup. His 14.6% usage rate with Luka on the floor just won’t provide nearly as many opportunities. Still, the sniper is averaging 5.3 attempts from deep this month, and he’s knocking them down at a rate of 39.1% for the season.
With that the case, it’s a bid odd his threes prop sits here. He’s topped it in all five games with Doncic back. This isn’t a bad matchup, either. Toronto allows the 10th-most made threes per game to power forwards.
FDR has Washington projected for 1.8 makes on triples in this game, so anything around even money is just fine.
This season is slipping away from the Phoenix Suns at a rapid pace.
One would have presumed they’d be in hot water with Kevin Durant (ankle) sidelined, and one would be correct. They’re 1-7 in games without Durant while holding a -8.8 net rating (NRTG), and it won’t help matters that their one quality big, Jusuf Nurkic (thigh), won’t play on Saturday, either, opposite Bam Adebayo.
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat have gotten healthy before this opportunity at home. Jimmy Butler (knee) is probable for tonight’s game, and they’ve got a +4.0 NRTG in game where all of their top-four scorers played.
Covering just 8 of 21 games this season, the Mike Budenholzer hire hasn’t turned Phoenix into a better bet than last season. Miami has won four of their last five contests at home with an average margin of victory of 17 points. It feels like the healthier side rolls tonight.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
