College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Georgia jumps back into top five, Boise State cracks top 10

USATSI

The penultimate College Football Playoff Rankings will be announced on Tuesday as we enter conference championship weekend. For the teams that are no longer playing, these are the most important of the season. That’s because the one and only time a team that was not playing on championship weekend jumped another such team in the final rankings was in 2014 was the year the format debuted (2014).

So, it is safe to assume that positioning of the teams that are not playing this weekend will not change relative to each other. Of course, teams that are playing can move around, which can cause teams not in action to have their rankings change. But those teams don’t have to worry about anyone else.

With that in mind, the most important placement in these rankings will likely be Miami vs. Alabama. The one that the committee favors this week could end up being the last at-large team in the field. These are teams the committee has shown favor to all season. Will they prefer the better record of the Hurricanes against not as good of a schedule? Or will they prefer Alabama’s strength of schedule and quality wins, albeit at home?

Do not get fooled into believing that top 25 wins are necessary to get into this tournament. Indiana has only one win over a team above. 500 (7-5 Michigan), and the Hoosiers will be ranked higher than both the Hurricanes and Crimson Tide.

There has also been a lot of questions about how much of a boost South Carolina will get for its win at Clemson. The problem for the Gamecocks is that they have losses to Ole Miss and Alabama. That does not bode well with a committee that has largely respected head-to-head results when possible.

Before we get going with this week’s rankings prediction, here are some of the things the College Football Playoff Selection Committee considers besides a team’s record:

Conference championships – This does not come into play until the final weekend, when those are determined.
Head-to-head
Games against common opponents
Results against ranked opponents.

References to “rankings” refer to last week’s CFP Rankings. It is the only one the committee uses when looking at performance against ranked teams, which is not necessarily a huge factor. If a team has enough of those games, it will be reflected in the strength of schedule.

Note: This projection is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.