With the conclusion of the 2024 ATP season, the year-end top ten is set, but things would look very different if tennis was only played on hard courts.
Jannik Sinner ended 2024 as the number one player on the ATP Tour, having won two of the four available Grand Slam titles.
The Italian held a comfortable lead over Alexander Zverev who tops Carlos Alcaraz by just under 1000 points.
Taylor Fritz reached his first Grand Slam final at the US Open, as he reached a career-high of fourth in the world.
Former world number one Novak Djokovic played a shorter schedule in 2024, as he finished as world number seven.
| Rank | Name | Points |
| 1 | Jannik Sinner | 11,830 |
| 2 | Alexander Zverev | 7,915 |
| 3 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7,010 |
| 4 | Taylor Fritz | 5,100 |
| 5 | Daniil Medvedev | 5,030 |
| 6 | Casper Ruud | 4,255 |
| 7 | Novak Djokovic | 3,910 |
| 8 | Andrey Rublev | 3,760 |
| 9 | Alex de Minaur | 3,745 |
| 10 | Grigor Dimitrov | 3,350 |
A solid set of rankings that take into consideration players performances on hard, clay, and grass courts, but what would things look like if tennis was only played on hard?
To no one’s surprise, Sinner would remain as world number one, dropping less than 2,000 points from his current ranking.
The 23-year-old dominated on hard courts in 2024, as he won both the Australian and US Open titles, before bringing home three Masters 1000 trophies.
He looked imperious at times, and the rest of the ATP top ten will no doubt view him as the favorite on hard heading into the new year.
Zverev holds on to number two, despite losing the points from his French Open final appearance.
The German picked up a lot of steam at the end of the season, as Zverev won the Paris Masters before winning all three of his group games at the ATP Finals.
His hard-court prowess is not to be understated and could very well be a dark horse for next year’s Australian Open.
The first big gainer from the ATP Tour hypothetically discounting clay and grass court success shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Medvedev’s performances at Indian Wells and the Australian Open, where he reached both finals, sees him slot in at number three.
He did fail to win a title in 2024 however, and he’ll be looking to get back to winning ways next time round.
Fritz holds onto fourth spot, thanks to some strong hard-court performances this year, especially at the US Open.
The American also picked up a title at Delray Beach earlier this year, as he accumulated a number of points at the smaller tournaments on tour.
Fritz has developed into a solid player on all three surfaces, but will certainly have his eye on the Australian and US Open next year, as he looks to go one step further and win his first Major title.
The first to feel the effects of losing grass and clay points is Alcaraz, who won both the French Open and Wimbledon this year.
The Spaniard did struggle with injury and illness at points this year as well, preventing him from picking up more points on tour.
It may just be starting to worry the 21-year-old however that his performances on hard aren’t quite as competitive as they are on the other two surfaces, with very few picking Alcaraz as a favorite for the upcoming Australian Open.
Andrey Rublev would jump two spots to number six in the world in these rankings, thanks to his consistency on tour.
Rublev won the Madrid Open on clay earlier this year, but he pretty much earned the rest of his ATP points on hard.
He’ll want to pick up more points at the Grand Slams in 2024, with the Russian still yet to reach a Major semi final.
The Bulgarian star had a resurgence in 2024, as Grigor Dimitrov rose back into the top ten with a number of excellent performances.
Dimitrov won his first ATP title in seven years this January, as he took home the trophy in Brisbane, before reaching the final in Miami just a few months later.
Strong performances on hard would see the 33-year-old rise to seventh in these rankings.
The biggest shock of the hard court-only rankings is Frances Tiafoe, who rose ten spots to eighth, with his performances in 2024.
The American reached the semi-finals of the US Open for a second time this year, shortly after making his first-ever Masters 1000 final in Cincinnati.
Tiafoe hasn’t been able to put everything together so far in his career, but his hard-court prowess can certainly propel him to big things in 2025.
Holger Rune is another to jump into the top ten in these rankings, thanks to his performances in 2024.
Previously known as a clay court specialist, Rune made a huge step forward this year on hard courts, establishing himself as a real threat on the surface.
Rune will however be hoping to get back to winning ways on the red stuff next year, as he looks to return to the ATP top ten.
Ugo Humbert had the best year of his career in 2024, winning a number of titles on tour.
The Frenchman won an ATP 250 tournament in Marseille earlier in the year, before adding to his haul with an ATP 500 title in Dubai.
Humbert reached two further hard court finals, as he lost to Arthur Fils in Tokyo, and Alexander Zverev in the Paris Masters final, clearly outlining his credentials on the surface.
One notable absentee from these rankings is Djokovic, who would fall well outside of the world’s top ten, if they only counted hard court results.
In fairness, the Serb did play a much shorter schedule in 2024, and Djokovic’s early exit at the US Open certainly didn’t help.
| Tournament | Result |
| Australian Open | Lost in SF to Jannik Sinner |
| Indian Wells | Lost in R32 to Luca Nardi |
| US Open | Lost in R32 to Alexei Popyrin |
| Shanghai Masters | Lost in F to Jannik Sinner |
The 37-year-old played just four tournaments on the surface this year, a fair explanation for why he didn’t accumulate too many points.
He will be hoping to bounce back in a big way in 2025, and with Andy Murray joining Djokovic’s coaching team, the pair will want to make a splash in Melbourne.
The 2025 Australian Open is set to begin on January 12.
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