NFL Week 12 Overreactions
Mackenzie Salmon breaks down NFL week 12 wildest games.
Sports Seriously
The wonderful tradition of NFL action on Thanksgiving began back in 1934. The Detroit Lions and the Dallas Cowboys have hosted a Thanksgiving Day game annually since the Super Bowl era began.
This week, the first picks for the NFL will come from the three matchups scheduled on Thursday’s holiday. To kick off the tripleheader, the Lions will welcome their NFC North rivals, the Chicago Bears, to Ford Field.
The Cowboys host the Giants in the late afternoon slot, while the Dolphins travel to Green Bay to face the Packers for the dessert portion of Thanksgiving festivities.
Here’s what to know about the games and the bets you should make to gobble up some cash on Thursday:
There are three games set to be played on Thanksgiving:
So, as we all stuff our faces and recognize what we’re grateful for, let’s stuff our wallets with winning anytime touchdown bets.
At this point in the season, injuries have streaked across the league. These Thanksgiving games are no different, especially with every team playing on a short week.
USA TODAY Sports has narrowed down the best options for anytime touchdown scorers for you here on Turkey Day. Let’s get to the best NFL bets for the Thanksgiving games in Week 13 with odds from BetMGM. Best of luck if you tail.
Odds as of Wednesday.
Let’s kick things off with the visiting Bears at the Lions on Thursday. This will be the third game for Caleb Williams and Chicago’s offense since Thomas Brown took over as the new offensive coordinator. Last week, the Bears’ rookie first-round receiver tied for second on the team in target share one week after receiving a team-high 32% of targets.
Listed at 6-3 and 215 lbs., Odunze is a threat in the red zone. The Lions have been terrific in every area except for pass defense. They have allowed the most yards and receptions in the NFL to slot receivers in 2024. Keenan Allen will lead the Bears in routes run from the slot (54.1%), but Odunze will be second on the team in slot routes (35%). The sportsbook has the Lions as a double-digit favorite, and the game flow should favor the Bears’ passing game as they try to keep up. Fire on Odunze.
Detroit’s run game has been elite, led by David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. This benefits the tight end in the play-action game. The second-year tight end has struggled compared to 2023, but he’s due for a bounce back against the Bears’ defense. Last week, T.J. Hockenson posted seven catches for 114 yards against Chicago.
LaPorta will be very thankful for facing Chicago’s defense by the end of the day. The Bears have allowed the 10th-most yards per game to opposing tight ends. LaPorta has tied his season-high of 6 targets in three of his last four games. Ben Johnson is dialing up plays to get the explosive tight end involved. The Bears have been elite defending wide receivers, so Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is dealing with a knee injury, could struggle at times on Thursday. Jared Goff will need his tight end to produce if he wants to avoid a fourth straight loss on Thanksgiving.
The Cowboys are coming off a stunning upset win on the road and now get the terrible Giants on Thanksgiving. Buy low on one of the best receivers in the NFL. The Cowboys’ season is in a tailspin following Dak Prescott’s hamstring injury, but they have a clear advantage over the visiting Giants on Thursday.
Cooper Rush is slated to start his third straight game since Prescott’s injury, and Lamb has eight and nine receptions in the first two with Rush under center. Defending the deep ball has been “Big Blue’s” bugaboo, but that’s not all: the Giants are the worst team in the NFL by most metrics, and entering Week 12, New York allowed a league-high 77% catch rate on passes 20 or more air yards.
Lamb isn’t typically served on most Thanksgiving tables, but CeeDee will serve it this year.
You would be a happy camper if you backed Bucky Irving from our recommendation against the Giants on Sunday. New York takes their disaster to Dallas two weeks after benching and releasing Daniel Jones. Drew Lock is seeing his first action as Giants quarterback with Tommy DeVito out with injury.
You can play it safe here and back Rico Dowdle, because the Giants have the worst run defense in the league – or you can play for the entire drumstick and roll with the Cowboys’ defense to score a touchdown.
The Cowboys special teams unit scored twice in Sunday’s upset over the Commanders. Cornerbacks Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland are expected to play on Thanksgiving, and what a treat that is for the Cowboys’ secondary. You may recall Bland had five interceptions returned for touchdowns last season. The Giant’s offensive line is in shambles. All-Pro LT Andrew Thomas is out for the season, and his backup, Jermaine Eluemunor, has not practiced. Micah Parsons and the Cowboys’ front seven will create havoc all evening. Roll the dice on the Dallas defense to find paydirt.
Let’s make this one quick and let you enjoy time with your families: Tucker Kraft is in a great spot on Thursday night. The Packers’ tight end has scored in five of the last eight healthy games by Jordan Love, and has benefited during healthy stretches for Love this season and is enjoying a breakout in 2024.
With wide receiver Romeo Doubs (concussion) missing this game, the stage is set for Kraft to take on a larger target share. The Dolphins are tied with the second-most receptions allowed per game to tight ends, and their Cover-3 scheme opens the door for catch-and-run opportunities in the middle areas of the field. Count on Kraft to serve the mac-n-cheese on Thursday night.
