The fourth edition of the College Football Playoff Rankings were released Tuesday night with undefeated Oregon maintaining its spot at No. 1 as has been the case in every set of rankings during this initial year of the expanded 12-team field. Off to a dominant start this season, the Ducks sit in the top slot seeking to make their second playoff appearance overall — first since the four-team field debuted after the 2014 season.
Seven of 10 teams ranked No. 1 in a season’s initial CFP Rankings ultimately reached the playoff in the four-team era with Mississippi State (2014), Tennessee (2022) and Ohio State (2023) being the exceptions. With eight more spots in the field this season, Oregon sits in a strong position at 11-0 as the only remaining undefeated program in the nation.
Ohio State, Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame round out the top five with the Fighting Irish replacing Indiana, which fell in the Horseshoe against the Buckeyes last Saturday but retained a spot in the projected 12-team field.
Beyond Notre Dame moving into the top five — it is not eligible for a bye due to CFP rules — Arizona State now projected to take the last playoff spot despite being ranked No. 16 overall stands the most notable change in this week’s rankings.
The top Group of Five program in Tuesday’s release remained Boise State at No. 11. With the 12-team playoff model granting automatic bids to the five highest-ranked conference champions, the Broncos stand in pole position to earn that opportunity should they win their league. At this juncture, they would receive a bye. Other Group of Five teams in this week’s rankings are Tulane (17) and UNLV (22) with Army West Point dropping out from last week’s top 25.
Let’s take a look at the entire CFP Rankings top 25 along with the projected bracket seedings for the first 12 teams. Check out analysis by bowls expert Jerry Palm below.
Indiana fans are certainly breathing a sigh of relief … for now. The Hoosiers dropped down to No. 10 after their loss at Ohio State, which would make them the last team in the field if the season ended today. They will look to secure their spot with a win over Purdue, and it would do the Hoosiers well to put up as big of a number on the Boilermakers as possible. There’s nothing wrong with 63-0 that 70-0 wouldn’t cure.
Another noteworthy move is SMU jumping up to No. 9, ahead of Indiana and Boise State, which squeaked out a win over Wyoming. The Mustangs may still have to win the ACC to get in the field, but a competitive loss to Miami in the ACC Championship Game may allow them to hold their spot.
Alabama checked in at No. 13 as the Crimson Tide dropped behind Clemson. The Tigers are No. 12 and well positioned to get a bye in the bracket should Miami lose to Syracuse and send the Tigers to the ACC Championship Game. Of course, Clemson would have to beat South Carolina for that to happen as well. The winner of that game could find themselves in position for an at-large bid. That would be more likely for Clemson because of one fewer loss, but I do not consider it highly likely for either without help from above.
If you are into chaos, take a look down the bracket where you find AAC leader Tulane up to No. 18 this week and the Mountain West’s second-best team, UNLV, at No. 22. If both win out, it would knock Boise State out of not just a bye but the playoff altogether. Then one of those two would become the fifth-highest ranked conference champion and land a 12-seed. My bet would be on UNLV.
Here’s another one. What if the Big 12 blows up and produces a three-loss conference champion. Boise State still wins, but could Tulane jump over the new Big 12 champ and put two Group of Five conference champions in the field? I think that is less likely, but you never know.
The time has come for these teams to make their final arguments to the selection committee. It should be a fun weekend of football as the regular season comes to a close.
