TCL will offer analysis in the US gambling space in The Takeaway every Thursday. Also, see the end of this piece for a quick roundup of gambling industry news.

Leading up to Election Day here in the US, Kalshi, prediction markets and betting odds were one of the hottest topics in the news. I clicked on one such story, from Sportico, and this line caught my eye.

“Kalshi is not subject to state laws on this topic, because we are instead federally regulated and do not offer gambling products,” a spokesperson wrote in an email.

That’s totally correct, at least from a top-level legal perspective given Kalshi’s victory in court this year. It’s not regulated as gambling! It’s legal!

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That’s also totally incorrect. It’s definitely gambling! It’s funny to hear Kalshi’s comms folks say this, when Kalshi makes multiple references to its customers betting on elections, including on the front page of the site:

There’s also a page at the Kalshi blog dedicated to “How to Bet on the Elections”!

If people want to bet on elections, and it’s within the law, have at it. I just find it silly that Kalshi has to engage in doublespeak like this.

I also think it’s silly that regulated US sportsbooks can’t offer election betting (they can in Ontario but in zero US states) given the current climate. I felt differently not that long ago, but current events have changed my opinion.

As we saw throughout the election cycle, it’s a way to drive tons of organic engagement and earned media, on top of perhaps meaningful top-line revenue at the end of the four-year election cycle. Not a day went by in the past few months where I didn’t see references to Kalshi, Polymarket (not technically serving the US) or BetOnline (offshore serving the US) odds for the presidential election.

I hope we see sportsbooks thread the needle and get involved somehow for the next election cycle, instead of letting legal prediction markets and illegal sportsbooks get all the action and hype.

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