College basketball is back, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.
Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let’s check out FanDuel Sportsbook’s college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
The TCU Horned Frogs are off to a rough start after failing to cover back-to-back games against Texas State and Florida Gulf Coast. However, Friday’s 8.5-point spread in favor of Michigan feels a bit too harsh. The Horned Frogs are ranked 44th in Bart Torvik while the Wolverines are 30th. Michigan also comes off a two-point loss as favorites against Wake Forest.
TCU’s biggest trouble will likely be slowing the Wolverines’ offense, which currently ranks 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Frogs are 28th in adjusted defensive efficiency, giving them a sound chance of limiting Michigan. The Wolverines are in the top 21% of close twos shot distribution and sit in the top 26% of three-point shot distribution. Offenses focusing on exclusively shooting threes while attacking the rim continues to take over college basketball.
Meanwhile, the Frogs are in the bottom 15% of three-point shot distribution allowed per game. However, opponents are shooting only 25.0% from deep against TCU, and Michigan just shot 30.3% from three in its most recent game. L.J. Cason, Danny Wolf, and Roddy Gayle Jr. are leading the Wolverines in usage rate, and Wolf and Gayle are under 35.0% from three across their careers while the freshman guard Cason has shot 2 of 8 from deep (25.0%).
Michigan’s inefficiencies from three could continue, and TCU has an exceptional interior defense that could make tonight a major headache. numberFire’s game projections even have the Horned Frogs winning with a final of 77.7-76.0. TCU is fully capable of covering on the road.
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Along with the Frogs to cover the spread, the under is a promising bet. We’ve went over TCU’s defense, and it struggles on offense, ranking 70th in adjusted offense efficiency. While the Wolverines are 64th in adjusted defensive efficiency, they also have the ideal pieces to make this a frustrating scoring night.
Michigan’s frontcourt is led by Vladislav Goldin and Wolf; each player carries Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR) surpassing 2.10 — per EvanMiya. The Horned Frogs are in the top 14% of shot distribution for close twos while sitting in the bottom 32% of three-point shot distribution. TCU want to live around the rim, but the Wolverines carry an exceptional defensive frontcourt.
The under would also pair well with a Frogs cover. TCU wants a low-scoring, ugly game, and the fewer the points, the more likely the Horned Frogs will cover that 8.5-point spread.
Friday is loaded with intriguing non-conference matchups and none could be on the level of Alabama-Purdue. While it’s a top-15 matchup, neither team is trending in the right direction.
The Crimson Tide’s last two wins have been in the single digits, and they were favored by at least 17 points in each contest. The Boilermakers just played in their first game without true freshman center Daniel Jacobsen — who suffered a broken tibia — and they managed to beat Yale by only eight points as double-digit favorites.
In a matchup between stumbling squads, the home team usually feels like the best bet. Plus, Purdue has the guard play to hang with Alabama. Fletcher Loyer leads the team with 17.0 PPG, and Braden Smith has been a stat-sheet-stuffer, logging 15.0 PPG, 6.3 rebounds per game (RPG), and 9.3 assists per game (APG). This is a elite-on-elite matchup as Alabama’s backcourt features Mark Sears (18.0 PPG) and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (12.3 PPG).
Each squad is in the top 11 of adjusted offensive efficiency, but the pace of play has been vastly different for each team. The Tide are in the top 2% for the quickest paces in college basketball while the Boilermakers are in the top 30% for the slowest paces.
While Purdue has its redeeming traits, Alabama could have too many advantages in this one. For example, the Crimson Tide are in the top 20% of offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers are outside of the top 150 in both categories. Losing Jacobsen for the season only adds to Purdue’s concerns on the glass, and Bama has one of the nation’s best big men on the glass as Clifford Omoruyi carries a 12.3% offensive rebounding rate and 29.4% defensive rebounding rate (both in the top 12 of the SEC).
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Purdue hasn’t been great at defending the rim or three-pointers, sitting outside of the top 100 in shot distribution allowed for each category. Alabama is among the top 19% in three-point and close twos shot distribution. The Boilermakers’ defense looks to be the glaring weakness of this matchup, for they are 33rd in adjusted rating while the Tide rank 16th in the category.
The frontcourt is also a major worry for Purdue. It is going from Jacobsen, who held a +6.5 box score plus/minus (BPM), to Will Berg‘s -0.9 BPM. Omoruyi (+12.7 BPM) and Grant Nelson (+7.6 BPM) form a dominant frontcourt for the Tide. This is a fair comparison too as each team has exclusively faced mid-majors thus far.
Between the Boilermakers’ worries on defense and in the frontcourt, give me the road team to cover the spread.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
