Friday’s main slate on DraftKings features the first 10 games of the evening. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is underpriced for life without Chet Holmgren (hip). Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 77.75 and 51.25 DraftKings points in these past two games with Holmgren inactive, and with the big man off the court this season, Gilgeous-Alexander is generating 1.63 DraftKings PPM, which is due to his usage rate rising 4.3 percentage points to a whopping 38.9%, via the On/Off Tool.
The Suns rank 18th in defensive efficiency, and the Thunder’s implied team total is the third-highest on the slate in this spot (118 points). Oklahoma City is favored by 7.5 points, but if Phoenix can keep this game competitive enough that Gilgeous-Alexander sees his usual workload, the guard should have zero issues outproducing this price tag.
The Clippers decided to make a change to their starting lineup Wednesday vs. the Rockets, with Kris Dunn starting over Terance Mann. With the promotion, Dunn posted 32 DraftKings points across 30.4 minutes. Los Angeles lost this game, but the former lottery pick led the team in plus/minus. If Dunn remains a starter for Friday’s rematch with Houston, he will be a strong value play for all formats.
This season, Dunn is supplying 0.9 DraftKings PPM and 25.1 DraftKings PPG for the five occasions he has logged over 20 minutes.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
Tyler Herro was unstoppable Wednesday, going off for 70.25 DraftKings points across 42.3 minutes in an overtime loss to the Pistons. Jimmy Butler (ankle) missing this tilt was the primary reason for Herro’s excellent play, and the forward will remain sidelined tonight. Herro has been very efficient this season, shooting a career-best 51% from the field, and with Butler off the floor, his usage has increased 1.9 percentage points to a team-high 30.1%, resulting in 1.4 DraftKings PPM for Herro, via the On/Off Tool.
On top of the massive role as the Heat’s top option, Herro is in a terrific spot, going against a Pacers team that ranks 11th in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency. This game’s total is the third-highest on the slate (228.5 points) – which is the largest total the Heat have competed in this season – and while we can’t expect another 70 DraftKings point outing, Herro should beat his current salary with over 40 DraftKings points.
Also from this high-total game between the Pacers and Heat, Bennedict Mathurin is an awesome option tonight. With Aaron Nesmith (ankle) out for the last five games, Mathurin has started at shooting guard for Indiana and has been outstanding, scoring 40.6 DraftKings points in 35.6 minutes per game with a 24.9% usage rate.
Mathurin is shooting 53% from the field and 47% on three-pointers this season – both of which are career highs – and Miami’s defense has been average, ranking 15th in efficiency. Mathurin has a ceiling over 40 DraftKings points in this spot and is severely underpriced for his current role as a starter.
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Franz Wagner continues to be a great spend with Paolo Banchero (oblique) and Wendell Carter Jr. (foot) both still sidelined. With these two starters out for the last six games, Wagner has led the Magic with 44.7 DraftKings PPG. With Banchero and Carter Jr. off the court this season, Wagner’s usage and assist rates have increased 1.3 and 3.5 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.3 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
The 76ers have been weak on the defensive end this season, ranking 21st in efficiency, and Wagner should stuff the stat sheet and approach 50 DraftKings points.
Just like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort receives a notable boost with Chet Holmgren missing. In these past two games with the center inactive, Dort has provided 25.6 DraftKings points in 33.7 minutes per game. Overall, the veteran is amassing 1.0 DraftKings PPM with Holmgren off the floor this season, which is attributed to a 2.0 percentage point increase in his usage rate.
Dort is averaging over two defensive stats per game this season, and he is one of the best forward values on the slate at this affordable price tag.
After a quiet start to the season by his standards, LeBron James has returned to his superstar form, scoring 65.6 DraftKings PPG in his last four starts, including three triple-doubles. The forward is supplying 1.5 DraftKings PPM with a 27.1% usage rate and a 41.9% assist percentage, and James averaged 56.3 DraftKings PPG in two matchups with the Spurs last season.
The 39-year-old should see huge minutes with the Lakers only favored by 3.5 points, and when Los Angeles has been favored by less than five points in the last two seasons, James is averaging 54 DraftKings PPG (21 games), via the Trends Tool.
Tobias Harris has exceeded 30 DraftKings points in eight of his last nine starts, and Tim Hardaway Jr. (head) being doubtful tonight is a solid boost for Harris. With Hardaway Jr. off the floor this season, Harris’ production has increased from 0.92 to 1.04 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Ranking fifth in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency, the Raptors are one of the best matchups to attack in the NBA, and Harris should cruise past 5x value in this spot. Also, do note that Jaden Ivey (toe) is questionable, and if the guard sits, Harris would be further solidified as one of the best forward targets available Friday.
Victor Wembanyama has topped 70 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts, and his success should continue in this matchup with the Lakers. The common factors in these past two huge outings for Wembanyama have been that the Spurs have been at home and that Jeremy Sochan (thumb) has been inactive, which both are the case again tonight. Wembanyama is averaging 5.4 more DraftKings PPG at home than when on the road so far in his career, and with Sochan off the court this season, Wembanyama has exposed his opponents for 1.7 DraftKings PPM.
Also, this matchup with Los Angeles is very appealing. This season, the Lakers rank 10th in pace, 24th in defensive efficiency, and they are yielding the second-most points in the paint. Wembanyama is averaging 70.9 DraftKings PPG in two career matchups with Anthony Davis, and Wembanyama is arguably the best stud to build around Friday.
Clint Capela is an affordable way to gain a share of the Hawks tonight. Hosting the Wizards, who rank third in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency, Atlanta boasts the highest implied team total on the slate (124.75 points), and this game’s total is the largest on the board by three points (240.5 points). Capela is contributing 30.4 DraftKings PPG in his last four starts, and Washington is allowing the second-most rebounds this season, which is perfect for a center like Capela.
The veteran has double-double upside tonight and is a strong value play for all formats.
