If your survivor pool is still kicking – even if it’s a second-chance or three-strike pool — give yourself a pat on the back. The show must go on, though, so let’s dive into this week’s 14-game slate and unveil the best plays of the coming weekend.
The Sporting News and PoolGenius have been here for you the entire season, delivering you thoughtful and effective survivor-pool advice the whole way through.
Here’s how this column works: we work with the PoolGenius Data Grid and Season Planner to analyze the best value picks of the upcoming weekend, then we dissect it all and share some actionable advice for your survivor pool entry.
MORE NFL WEEK 10 BETTING: Odds, lines, totals | Power rankings
Two weeks ago, PG went a perfect 10-for-10 atop their Week 7 top pick’em odds. In Week 9 (not including the Chiefs’ MNF game), PG went 10-for-11 on top picks (it would have been 11-for-11 if not for the Saints losing to the Panthers by one point).
Long story short, PoolGenius is sizzling. And this column is on fire like a hibachi onion turned into a volcano. Let’s give you a quick recap of the top-line advice we’ve doled out throughout this season:
Our one big blemish all season was recommending the Seahawks at home against the Giants in Week 5. Other than that, this column has been almost perfect.
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Let’s get to our top survivor pool advice for Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season.
The Sporting News has teamed up with PoolGenius this season to give you the best weekly advice on survivor pools. PoolGenius subscribers have reported over $6 million in NFL survivor pool winnings.
It’s pretty easy to tell which picks will be the most popular ahead of a new NFL week. Lopsided moneylines and spreads often dictate survivor-pool action — attacking the opponent perceived as the weakest is a tale as old as time.
Here are the most heavily favored teams for Week 10, along with their PoolGenius win probability odds:
Team | Opponent | Spread | Line | PG odds |
Chiefs | vs. Broncos | -9 | -450 | 77% |
Eagles | at Cowboys | -6.5 | -300 | 74% |
Chargers | vs. Titans | -7.5 | -400 | 73% |
49ers | at Bucs | -6.5 | -300 | 72% |
Ravens | vs. Bengals | -6.5 | -275 | 70% |
Bears | vs. Patriots | -6.5 | -350 | 67% |
Two weeks ago, there were a whopping eight teams with win probabilities of 70 percent or higher, seven teams at 74 percent and above, and two teams in the 80. Week 9 and 10 have each been much more balanced, with only five teams at -300 or shorter.
What stands out the past two weeks: teams that are rolling facing teams that are starting to lose their way. Atop the list, the Chiefs are undefeated and facing a Broncos team that just got dismantled by the Ravens.
The Eagles get to go into Dallas to beat the dickens out of a broken Cowboys team in a divisional tilt. The Chargers are cooking and now get to face either Will Levis or Mason Rudolph. The Niners, coming off a bye, get to beat up the Bucs sans Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. And “Da Bears” get to tee off on “Da Pats” at home.
It’s easy to highlight the Chiefs vs. Broncos or Eagles at Cowboys — anybody could make those high-profile picks. We’re going with a more under-the-radar squad, one that is most likely still available in a ton of survivor pool entries: the Chargers (vs. Titans).
Big surprise: Jim Harbaugh has positively influenced the culture in Los Angeles. He’s got Justin Herbert playing some of his best football in years, and the Bolts running game and defense continue to quietly excel. J.K. Dobbins looks like a Pro Bowler, and the pass-catching trio of Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey and Joshua Palmer have been very good.
LA just destroyed the Browns 27-10, one week after smashing the Saints 26-8. No team — not even the Chiefs — has put more than 17 points on the Chargers D since September. Coincidentally, Tennessee has averaged 15.3 points per game over its past four games — and two of those games were against the Pats and Colts. Bolt up!
Want three more big-value picks a little further down the board? How about Falcons at Saints, Bills at Colts, and Vikings at Jaguars?
Kirk Cousins and Atlanta have been cooking with gas, and New Orleans is running on fumes (prayers up for Chris Olave). Buffalo is far too feisty for a limited Colts squad to outscore. And how can anyone trust Trevor Lawrence to out-duel Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison and the Vikings?
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