• Patrick Mahomes will finish as a top-10 fantasy QB for the first time in nearly a year: When the Kansas City Chiefs play this Monday night, it will have been 344 days since Mahomes last finished as a top-10 fantasy QB in any given week. That streak ends this week as he gets to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers atrocious pass defense.
• De’Von Achane is a weekly top-five fantasy player as long as Tua Tagovailoa is under center: Achane has averaged 137.3 scrimmage yards and 26.4 fantasy points per game over the three games that Tagovailoa started this season. He finished as a top-three fantasy RB in each of those weeks and has the opportunity to finish at the top again in a great matchup against the Buffalo Bills this Sunday.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes
Are you struggling to set your fantasy lineups? Maybe I can help… Below you can find my top fire (boom) and ice (bust) players at each position for Week 9. I also include my sleeper of the week at each position in case you are in a deeper league or in need of a replacement for an ice player.
Don’t miss my Fire & Ice chart at the bottom of this page. There, I have listed out all of my fire, good, sleeper and ice plays for Week 9 of the 2024 fantasy football season.
I rarely rank Mahomes high in my fantasy ranks as he has simply been a bad fantasy quarterback for a long time now — he hasn’t finished higher than the QB14 in fantasy points in any week since Week 9 of the 2023 season. To put that into context, Bo Nix has finished as a top-10 fantasy QB in three of the last four weeks. However, this matchup is too juicy for Mahomes not to go off and I am predicting that this weekend will be his first top-eight fantasy finish in over a full year.
No defense has allowed more fantasy points on average to quarterbacks this season than Tampa Bay. In three of the last four weeks, the QB facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has finished as a top-three fantasy producer at their position that week (Kirk Cousins in Weeks 5 and 8 and Lamar Jackson in Week 7).
It is humorous to think about, but Joe Flacco leads all quarterbacks with five-plus starts in passing yards per game (309.1) and passing touchdowns per game (2.6) since the start of the 2023 season. Flacco has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game he has started over the last two seasons, and he has scored 22-plus fantasy points in three of his last four starts.
The Minnesota Vikings‘ defense has allowed the third-most passing yards per game this season, behind only the Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens. Flacco faced the Jaguars earlier this season and threw for 359 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions while putting up 26.6 fantasy points against them.
Nix has been a shockingly solid fantasy QB as of late, finishing as a top-10 performer in three of the last four weeks and having the best game of his career last weekend against the Carolina Panthers. On paper, this matchup against the Ravens, who have been hemorrhaging fantasy points to QBs, looks like another great opportunity for Nix to put up huge numbers, but I think it is a trap.
The Ravens have allowed 25.9 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs on the road this season but just 13.8 points per game at home. On the other hand, Bo Nix has averaged just 12.8 fantasy points per game on the road in his rookie season – he is averaging 145 passing yards per game and has scored just one passing touchdown over four away games in 2024.
Overall it has been a disappointing sophomore season for De’Von Achane, but he has still been an elite fantasy asset as long as Tua Tagovailoa is under center. Achane has finished as a top-three fantasy running back in each week that Tagovailoa started this season – he scored 23 points in Week 1, 30 points in Week 2 and 27 points in Week 8. His season-high scrimmage yards (165) and fantasy points came in Week 2 against the Buffalo Bills, who he will be facing again this weekend.
The Bills have been especially bad against pass-catching backs this season, allowing the most receptions and receiving yards to RBs among all NFL teams. Achane is averaging over seven targets and 65 receiving yards per game when Tagovialoa starts for the Miami Dolphins this season. Fantasy managers should expect another monster performance from Achane in Week 9.
It was a terrible outing on the ground for Alexander Mattison last weekend when he put up just 15 yards on 14 carries and was stuffed on all of his four-goal line opportunities. But I don’t think we need to put most stock into that performance as he was facing the Kansas City Chiefs who are the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL this season. The important thing to take away from that matchup is that Mattison still got 19 touches in the game and Las Vegas Raiders HC Antonio Pierce said after the game that he would remain their starting back moving forward.
Mattison scored at least 15 fantasy points in both Weeks 6 and 7 and he has 81 scrimmage touches over the last four weeks – only Josh Jacobs has more during that span. He gets a much easier matchup in Week 9 against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed a RB to score at least 16 fantasy points against them in three of the last five weeks.
Mostert scored twice in Week 8, his first rushing touchdowns of the 2024 season. However, he saw only 10 touches in the game and put up just 19 yards on nine carries — 12 of Mostert’s 16 fantasy points came from his two touchdowns in Week 8. The Bills have been a very friendly defense to fantasy running backs, but that is largely due to them giving up a ton of receptions and receiving yards to RBs. Mostert has five receptions through four games played this season.
Mostert’s fantasy production will be very reliant on scoring a touchdown but the Bills have allowed just four rushing touchdowns to RBs in 2024
With Anthony Richardson, Josh Downs is a risky play as he is dependent on big plays … but with Joe Flacco, Downs becomes a much safer option with great upside. On 61 passing snaps with Richardson, Downs has caught just nine of 18 targets for 145 yards and one TD. On 84 passing snaps with Flacco, Downs has caught 23 of 29 targets for 206 yards and two TDs. In three games played with Flacco this season, Downs has scored 22.2, 15.9 and 19.5 fantasy points.
Downs get a fantastic matchup this Sunday against the Vikings who have allowed the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position this season. The Vikings have allowed at least one WR to score 18-plus fantasy points against them in each of their last six games.
In his Chiefs debut, DeAndre Hopkins had just two receptions for 29 yards while playing on only 32% of the offensive snaps in Week 8. However, Andy Reid said he expects “to see more” of Hopkins in Week 9 on Monday Night Football. This week’s matchup is a great opportunity for the Chiefs to get their new weapon going.
The Buccaneers have allowed the sixth most receiving yards per game and fifth most fantasy points to wide receivers in 2024. They have been getting even worse as the season progresses — four different WRs have scored 18-plus fantasy points against the Buccaneers over the last four weeks.
Zay Flowers has been seeing a ton of volume and putting up great production as of late — he has had a 100-yard receiving game in three of the last four games and has finished as a top-15 fantasy producer in each of those three weeks. However, his fantasy points have been very target-volume-dependent and I don’t expect him to be utilized too much on Sunday in a very tough matchup for wide receivers.
The Denver Broncos‘ pass defense is top-notch this season – they have allowed the fewest passing yards per attempt to opponents and the second-fewest yards per reception to wide receivers this season. No WR has recorded 80-plus receiving yards against the Broncos in 2024. Plus, the probability that Flowers can score a TD in this matchup is low — Flowers has just one TD on the year and Denver has allowed just four receiving touchdowns to WRs in 2024, tied for the fewest in the NFL.
The biggest beneficiary from Christian Kirk’s season-ending injury is Evan Engram. The two play very similar roles in the Jaguars offense as they are the team’s top slot weapons. With Kirk on the sidelines from Weeks 13-18 in 2023, Engram averaged over 10 targets per game and 19.3 fantasy points per game — he was the overall TE1 during that span.
The Philadelphia Eagles will have no issue putting up points against the weak Jaguars defense, which will force the Jaguars to pass early and often this Sunday. Engram should see double-digit targets in Week 9.
There is optimism surrounding Drake Maye’s chances to pass concussion protocol before the New England Patriots’ Week 9 game this Sunday. If Maye is out there, Hunter Henry is a good fantasy option. Henry scored 13.1 and 17.2 points over Maye’s two full games played this season (Weeks 6 and 7).
The Tennessee Titans not only allowed Lions TE Sam LaPorta to score a season-high 16.8 fantasy points in Week 8, but they allowed both LaPorta and Detroit Lions backup TE Brock Wright to come down with a receiving touchdown in the game. Henry is a top-12 fantasy start at the TE position in Week 9 if Maye is active.
Tucker Kraft has been an excellent fantasy TE as of late, scoring at least 16 fantasy points in three of the last five weeks. However, much of his production has come on big plays and touchdowns, and he hasn’t had more than three receptions in any of the last three weeks. Plus, he gets a very tough matchup for fantasy tight ends this weekend.
The Lions have allowed just two tight ends to score more than five fantasy points against them, with no TEs scoring more than 10 points against them this season. Over their last six games, the Lions have not allowed an opposing TE to record more than 33 receiving yards and have allowed just one touchdown to the tight end position during that span.
Here, I categorize every relevant fantasy player into five different buckets: (1) fire starts (best starts of the week); (2) thumbs up (good starts); (3) Risky players with upside (sleepers); (4) Ice starts (predicting bad performance from good player); (5) Stop (must sits).
Note: If a player/defense is not listed, I am not considering starting them in Week 9. I did not include Texans/Jets players as they play on Thursday night.
