Horse Racing Tips: An 11/2 shout tops Frank Hickey’s Friday ITV Racing bets

Posted by Admin October 10, 2024 Horse Racing

Frank Hickey’s Friday ITV Racing Tips

13:30 York – Naxos
13:47 Newmarket – Grande Marques
14:05 York – Stratusnine
14:25 Newmarket – Mandurah (each-way)
14:40 York – The Reverend (NAP)
15:00 Newmarket – Royal Scotsman
15:15 Chepstow – Juventus De Brion
15:35 Newmarket – Desert Flower
16:10 Newmarket – Mount Atlas

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

13:30 York – Naxos

NAXOS was progressive last season after finding the Brittania Handicap too hot on his handicap debut. He finished second at Newmarket and Wolverhampton off 88 & 92 before winning very easily at Epsom off a mark of 93 over 10f. Over a mile on heavy ground, he only gave way late in the day to be beaten a length off 97. The ground there wouldn’t have been ideal and while it is soft at York, it is nowhere near as bad as it was at Goodwood. A stall two draw is favourable, and Callum Rodriguez has a 2-7 (29% strike rate) when riding for George Boughey in the last five years.

The Strikin Viking is clear on ratings, but his rating of 109 overestimates him. He was disappointing in the Gimcrack and I’m not sure that a drop back to 5f is what he wants just because he races ‘free.’

GRANDE MARQUES has displayed some ability despite taking a while to get her head in front. However, the fact that she was pitched into the Group 2 Airlie Stud Stakes on her second start showed that connections consistently rated her highly. She ran well upped back to Group company at Ayr last time when running an outstanding time figure. She was worn down late enough by Sky Majesty (who looks like an excellent sprinter in the making) and Maw Lam (placed in the Queen Mary). The drop to 5f could suit and I always respect Irish trainer Fozzy Stack when he brings one to the UK.

STRATUSNINE was only beaten a neck on debut at York in May, where the winner, Arabie, won a Group 3 and a Group 2 in France. Third to Simmering is a Group 3 and Group 2 winner and Group 1 placed. He was just touched off in second on his return but then got off the mark at Ayr on his third start when beating Intrusively a half-length.

Intrusively was third in the Richmond Stakes and wasn’t beaten far in the Doncaster Sales race on St Leger weekend. Stratusnine hasn’t run since, but this race looks to lack depth and he has to prove his stamina for 7f, but his dam did win over 9f and was placed over 10f. I’d be pretty hopeful about him staying even with him being sired by Far Above.

14:25 Newmarket – Mandurah (each-way)

Cathedral was impressive on debut and clocked a remarkable closing sectional. She cost €800k and could be up to winning at Group 2 level on just her second start. MANDURAH made an impressive debut on the July course, comfortably beating the re-opposing Miss Fascinator. She travelled powerfully that day and travelled like the best horse when stepped up to Group 3 level for the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot before finishing fourth to Simmering. She raced a little keenly there and it took away from her finishing effort. On pedigree, the step up to 7f should suit. At the prices, she has already beaten Miss Fascinator. She looks the value each-way if the 76 days off the track doesn’t catch her out.

This looks competitive with five last-time-out winners, but it’s still difficult to oppose THE REVERAND considering the style of his handicap debut win at Ascot last time on soft ground. He won there off 86 and went up 9lbs to a mark of 95 now, but he looked like a Group horse in the making. A debut winner on heavy ground at Newmarket, so we know easy ground suits him well. His only two defeats were to Thunder Run (who he was conceding 7lbs to and that one is now rated 100) and Military Academy (conceding 6lbs and is now rated 105). He is a 105-horse in the making.

There should be plenty of pace on as Pogo, Witness Stand, ROYAL SCOTSMAN, Topgear, Quinault and Noble Dynasty are all capable of making the running. Royal Scotsman was a top-class juvenile, winning the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood and finishing third in the Coventry Stakes and a close second in a Dewhurst to subsequent Guineas winner Chaldean. He was a good third in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas before the wheels came off in the Irish Guineas and St James’ Palace Stakes before being ruled out for the rest of the season.

A poor reappearance in the Lockinge at Newbury then saw him dropped in class to run away with the Group 3 Diomed Stakes at Epsom on Derby Day. He is slightly temperamental, but may not have to make all now dropped in trip to 7f. He is the class angle and, at his best, would take all the beating

The UK jumps season ‘officially’ starts at Chepstow with Friday’s and Saturday’s cards, but the Grade 2 Persian War handicap looks like a weaker renewal. It’s competitive, but they all look to be rated around the low 120s, bar Irish challenger Intense Approach, who is rated 130. I wouldn’t fancy him in a handicap off that mark, though.

The Skelton’s JUVENTUS DE BRION was third on hurdles debut last December, staying on over 2m when held up in a race where the first two were always prominent. He was then third to Pic Roc and Inthewaterside (with the reopposing Vicenzo back in fourth), and both are also rated in the 130’s. Again, Juventus De Brion was held up, while the front two were there from the get-go. A strongly-run race at this trip will suit him. He could improve this season.

You can make a case for nearly all of these in this Group 1 Fillies’ Mile, but it is difficult to oppose DESERT FLOWER. She quickly disposed of the now 100-rated Flight on debut here on the July course (the fourth Duty First is now rated 96). On her third start, she was solid in the market for the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster and she won well from the re-opposing January. We know she stays and has won twice on the July course, so there should be no issue with the track here and she is the one they all have to beat.

MOUNT ATLAS won on his third start at Redcar over 10f on soft ground and then won on his handicap debut at Ascot in July off a mark of 87. That from has worked out really well with runner-up Insanity winning his next start at Ascot off 3lb higher. The third Tabletalk won the Melrose Stakes on his next start off 1lb higher while the fifth Burdett Road recently won a Listed race at Newmarket (albeit had been well beaten in the Ebor and at Chester in between). At the same time, the sixth Wonder Kid bolted up at Newmarket on his next start.

It is a slight concern that Mount Atlas he didn’t run in the Melrose Stakes and that we haven’t seen him since, but I suspect that the revised mark of 94 is well within his compass. Trainer Andrew Balding won this race last year with Alkasib, who had also won an Ascot handicap on his previous start.