Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
It’s only been two weeks, but the 2024 NFL season has turned into the year of the underdog, which could bode well for all of us tonight, because it means we might actually get an exciting game. The Patriots are six-point underdogs to the Jets on “Thursday Night Football,” which I’m only bringing up because underdogs of six or more points have been impressive this year.
The Patriots are the ninth team to be an underdog of six points or more this season, and the previous eight teams have gone 6-0-2 against the spread and 4-4 straight-up. (The Patriots even pulled off one of those four upsets with a win over the Bengals in Week 1 as 7.5-point underdogs.) If you’ve bet any money on an underdog of six points or more to cover the spread this year, YOU HAVE NOT LOST, which is kind of crazy.
So will that trend continue tonight? We’ll be talking about that in today’s newsletter, plus we’ll be ranking all the 0-2 teams.
As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the bank. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let’s get to the rundown.
The New York Jets will get a chance tonight to do something they haven’t done in nine years: Beat the Patriots at home. The Patriots have won 15 of their past 16 against the Jets and that includes winning eight straight games at MetLife Stadium. If the Jets are ever going to end that streak, this seems like the year to do it. Tonight’s game will be kicking off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime.
Tyler Sullivan put a preview together for this game, and here’s how he sees things playing out:
You can get a full preview of the game from Sullivan by clicking here.
If you’re thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
We also have a full betting preview from SportsLine that you can check out here.
And finally, here are our picks for a game where the Jets are currently favored by six points.
PICKS FOR ‘TNF’
Sullivan’s pick: Jets 27-17 over Patriots
My pick: Jets 20-17 over Patriots
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, you can see who our eight experts are taking by clicking here.
When it comes to trying to make the playoffs, getting off to an 0-2 start is usually the kiss of death in the NFL. Since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams in 2020, there have been 32 teams that have started 0-2 and only two of them have bounced back to make the playoffs.
With that in mind, Cody Benjamin decided to rank all nine 0-2 teams based no how good they can still be this year. We’re going to take a look at the top two teams and the bottom two teams in his rankings.
1. Bengals. “Few contenders start slow like the Bengals, so this is, in some ways, par for the course in Cincinnati. Don’t get us wrong: The lingering Ja’Marr Chase drama and Tee Higgins availability questions are red flags. Discipline has been an issue. But if Joe Burrow is on the field, slinging it as he does, then this team is one of the toughest outs in the NFL.”
2. Ravens. “Up and down the lineup, this group is still built for January contention. It’s not wrong to be mildly concerned, though, considering the pairing of Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh pairing has always struggled to put away opponents. Just don’t dare count them out of the AFC North just yet.”
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8. Broncos. “Sean Payton had us buying Bo Nix’s NFL readiness in the preseason, but it’s fair to wonder: Was he ready to endure Nix’s rookie lumps at this rate? The Oregon product hasn’t exactly protected the ball despite an expectation of conservative offense to start his career. Their AFC West chances already look shot.”
9. Panthers. “Carolina has been outscored 73-13, and even that doesn’t do justice to their hapless offense. Mercifully, Bryce Young has since been benched for Andy Dalton. Can the veteran squeeze something out of their setup?”
If you want to see Cody’s full ranking, then be sure to check out his story here.
Through two weeks, the 2024 NFL season is turning into the year of the kicker. Collectively, the NFL’s 32 kickers have been so good this year from long range that coaches have been much more willing to send out their kicker for a long-distance field goal attempt. Due to the onslaught of long-range field goals, teams have been attempting kicks at a higher rate, which has set up an unprecedented start to the NFL season.
Let’s check out some of the numbers:
So why are kickers do good now?
Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey has a theory and it’s pretty simple: Kickers are just better.
“I think the kickers are just better,” Aubrey said this week. “Guys practice more. You have spring leagues that are providing more opportunities for guys. The coaching is better, you’re paying guys more money to do it. So at a younger age, people are starting to do it because they know that’s a career path they can have and then guys are just better. No better way of saying it.”
If you want to read more about the historical kicking start, you can do that here. If you want to check out our full interview with Aubrey, you can read more here.
There are 167 modern-era nominees for the Pro Football Hall of Fame class of 2025, and on Wednesday, the HOF released the full list of players who were nominated this year. The list includes several big-named players who are eligible for the first time.
Here are a few of those names:
You can check out the entire list of nominees by clicking here.
The biggest debate this year will probably revolve around Manning. From a purely numbers standpoint, the former Giants quarterback probably didn’t have a Hall of Fame career, but when you factor in that he won two Super Bowls, that might be enough to earn him a nod.
The announcement of the nominees is just the first step in a process that will be going on for the next five months. The HOF will narrow down this list to a group of 50 players in October. After that, the group of 50 will be trimmed down to 25 semi-finalists in November. From there, a group of 15 finalists will be named in January. After the three cutdowns have been made, the Hall of Fame Selection Committee will get together during Super Bowl week in February to vote on the players who will be getting in. Under HOF bylaws, the committee can select a minimum of three modern-era players and a maximum of five for induction.
Jon Gruden has kept a pretty low-profile since being forced out as the head coach of the Raiders back in October 2021. The 61-year-old was let go after some controversial emails he wrote were leaked out to the public. Gruden hasn’t really done any interviews since he lost his job, but he granted one this week to CBS Sports National College Football reporter Brandon Marcello.
Here are a few key details from the interview:
Since losing his job with the Raiders, Gruden has mostly kept his distance from the NFL. He did help out the Saints in 2023 and he visited with the Chiefs in August 2024, but those are the only two teams he’s spent time with publicly. Despite spending some time with those two teams, it seems that he’s not expecting to get back to the NFL as a head coach.
If you want to read the full interview with Gruden, you can do that here.
It’s been a busy week in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.