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Let’s get to it — here’s who (or what) we like, and why, on Sunday in Buccaneers-Lions, Jets-Titans, Chargers-Panthers, Saints-Cowboys and Bears-Texans.
All kickoff times below are ET.
Bucs-Lions would probably have “track meet” written all over it even if both teams were 100 percent healthy. That’s how good the Lions looked in Week 1 against a tough Rams team, and how potent the Bucs were in their Week 1 win over the Commanders.
But given the onslaught of injuries that ravaged the Bucs’ DB unit last Sunday — three of the Bucs’ corners who were active in Week 1 (Bryce Hall, Zyon McCollum and Josh Hayes) suffered injuries — we recommend betting the over in this game even more strongly than we would if Tampa were healthy.
Corner is not the only position where Tampa has been hit hard. On Friday, All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and DL Calijah Kancey were both ruled out for the Detroit game, while Hall now is on IR and Hayes is also unavailable for Sunday.
The Lions offense was plenty effective in 2023 with minimal contributions from Jameson Williams. Last Sunday night, Williams looked like another major problem for Detroit opponents, with five catches for 121 yards and one TD.
If he can keep that up, the Lions will singlehandedly make the over a tempting bet in each of their games.
Best bet: Over 51.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Neither the Jets nor the Titans looked great in Week 1. We won’t quite give Aaron Rodgers’ Jets a pass for what happened in San Francisco last Monday night, but in hindsight, their road game vs. the 49ers on MNF was probably the toughest task any team faced on opening weekend.
The Niners gashed the N.Y. defense for 180 yards rushing on 38 carries, and the new-look, Rodgers-led Jets offense looked like a work in progress, as it committed two turnovers and dealt with drops and poor execution for most of that game.
Still, we’re much higher on the Jets than the Titans. The latter led Chicago 17-3 at halftime last week, but collapsed amid a couple brutal mistakes by young QB Will Levis down the stretch.
Rodgers, at 40 years old, isn’t what he once was, but we’ll take him — and a Jets defense we still trust despite its rough start to 2024 — over Levis and the Titans, even in Nashville.
Best bet: Jets -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Chargers roster has a number of issues. Based on this team’s season opener, though, the preseason hype — which suggested that as long as Jim Harbaugh is on the sidelines and Justin Herbert is under center, the Chargers will be fine — may have been spot-on.
Granted, L.A.’s Week 1 opponent, the Raiders, are probably in for a long season. The Chargers’ 22-10 win over division rival Las Vegas was nevertheless impressive.
The Panthers, on the other hand, were catastrophically bad on both sides of the ball from the opening whistle in New Orleans. By the end of the first quarter, the Saints were up 17-0, and the score at halftime was 30-3.
The Saints, who entered this year with an O-line widely viewed as a liability, ripped through the Carolina D with ease. New Orleans ran for 180 yards on 37 carries and Derek Carr averaged 8 yards per attempt on 19-for-24 passing.
The Chargers feel like a lock to not just cover as heavy road favorites, but win going away. The Panthers not only lost their opener 47-10, but got even more bad news on Tuesday, when Pro Bowl DT Derrick Brown was ruled out for the rest of the season with a knee injury.
Best bet: Chargers -4.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Also consider the Chargers’ alt spread markets; -6.5 (+120 at FD) feels like a safe play, and a double-digit L.A. victory — Chargers -9.5 at +180 on FanDuel, anyone?? — wouldn’t be a surprise, either.
The Saints are hard to evaluate after Carolina offered little resistance in their season opener. New Orleans played clean and took full advantage of the Panthers’ miscues, but they have a brutal trip to Dallas on Sunday that will provide a very different test.
The Cowboys overwhelmed a good team in Cleveland last Sunday, as new Dallas DC Mike Zimmer helped make Deshaun Watson’s 2024 debut a nightmare. Micah Parsons is rightfully the headliner for this defense, and he had one sack and one TFL last Sunday, but DeMarcus Lawrence, Eric Kendricks and DeMarvion Overshown showed that Parsons is not the only issue for opposing offensive lines.
How Dallas will fare in the playoffs is anyone’s guess, but 60 minutes in Cleveland were enough to show this is once again a regular-season buzzsaw. We trust the ‘Boys to win and cover at home this Sunday.
Best bet: Cowboys -6 (-112 at DraftKings)
Few teams (outside of proven commodities Kansas City and San Francisco, of course) got as much Super Bowl buzz during training camp as the Houston Texans.
Their Week 1 trip to Indianapolis was hardly a cakewalk, but it also offered little reason to doubt what C.J. Stroud and Co. are capable of this season. Last year, Stroud managed to post historically good numbers for a rookie despite a bad running game, and in that area, Houston appears to have taken a massive step forward.
The offseason addition of former Bengal Joe Mixon paid immediate dividends against a solid Indianapolis front seven. Mixon finished the Colts game with 159 yards on 30 carries, and as a team, Houston ran the ball 40 times for 213 yards to keep Anthony Richardson and the Indy offense on the sideline for two-thirds of the game.
If the Texans’ ground game is anywhere near that effective in Week 2 and beyond, Houston is going to have a great chance to improve on its 10-7 record a year ago.
The Bears entered the season with plenty of hype of their own after taking Caleb Williams at No. 1 overall, but needed multiple non-offensive touchdowns to beat Tennessee at home last weekend.
Our confidence in Houston to cover is much more of a testament to how tough the Texans should be at home on Sunday Night Football than a slight of the Bears.
Best bet: Texans -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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