• Wide receiver is the right first-round pick outside of 1.01: Christian McCaffrey is the right choice at 1.01, but a wide receiver is the preferred option for any other pick in the first round.
• Figure out when Rashee Rice will be available: It has become increasingly clear that a suspension for Rice is unlikely in 2024, making him potentially the best value pick.
• Dominate your fantasy draft: Subscribe to PFF+ to get full access to PFF’s suite of fantasy football tools, including the fantasy mock draft simulator, live draft assistant, fantasy draft rankings, cheat sheets and more! Click here to subscribe!
Estimated reading time: 15 minutes
The “Perfect Fantasy Football Draft” series blends current average draft positions from both expert and casual drafts to predict player availability at each pick, enabling us to make the best possible selections based on that information. This draft is designed for 12-team PPR leagues. Click here for our 10-team version.
Anyone with the top overall pick should take Christian McCaffrey with little hesitation. He scored over 100 more PPR points than any other running back last season and has the perfect combination of talent, opportunity and situation. Anyone missing out needs to pivot to a wide receiver. No quarterback or tight end is worth a first-round pick this year.
Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall are both worthy of being selected in the first round, but both also have slightly higher ADPs than they should, given the talent at wide receiver. As such, if you pick anywhere from second to 10th, wide receiver is the best option.
Lamb has noticeably improved each season and is now at the top of the position. He finished 2023 as the top wide receiver and has less competition for targets this season after Tony Pollard‘s and Michael Gallup‘s departure. The only notable addition is sixth-round receiver Ryan Flournoy, which will have no impact on Lamb’s target share.
In contrast, Justin Jefferson has a new quarterback, Ja’Marr Chase’s quarterback is coming back from injury and Tyreek Hill is 30 years old, adding a little risk to each of their profiles.
Similar to the first round, the value in this round is also at wide receiver, making wide receiver the strength of your team. This is where the “zero running back” strategy gains popularity—wide receivers selected around this time are generally more reliable as fantasy starters throughout the season than the running backs available in the same range.
Nacua finished with the fourth-most fantasy points among all wide receivers last season, making it one of the best rookie seasons by a wide receiver of all time. His situation this year is very similar to last year, with Sean McVay as his head coach, Matthew Stafford as his quarterback, and Cooper Kupp as his primary competition. It is certainly possible that Nacua will have an even better sophomore season. Still, he has a one-year sample size of excellent play compared to the wide receivers selected ahead of him who have been clear elite options for multiple seasons.
