Entering Week 1 in survivor pools, some obvious trends are already emerging with half of entries nationwide jumping on one of two teams — Bengals and Bills.
Of course, survivor isn’t just about winning Week 1. It’s about optimizing future value to stay alive as long as possible. Which is precisely why the most popular team in Week 1 isn’t necessarily the best pick for Week 1. Analyzing pick popularity and factoring long-term expected value are critical to NFL survivor pool strategy and as such, two of five key NFL survivor pool tips.
Consider the following facts from our friends at PoolGenius:
Let’s take a closer look at Week 1’s most popular pick and why season-long strategy suggests going in a different direction.
All season long, The Sporting News is teaming up with PoolGenius to bring you the best weekly advice on all things survivor pools. PoolGenius subscribers have reported over $6 million in NFL survivor pool winnings.
PoolGenius’s No. 1 tip for pool strategy is analyzing pick popularity.
The Bengals enter this week as 8.5-point favorites against the Patriots, the largest Week 1 opening line. Not surprisingly, it also means the Bengals are the most popular NFL Week 1 survivor pick. PoolGenius’s NFL Survivor Picks product gathers data published by the largest survivor pool sites and updates survivor pick popularity data throughout each week
Here are the six most popular survivor picks as of September 1.
| Team | Opponent | Pct Picked | Line |
| Bengals | vs. Patriots | 36% | -8.5 |
| Bills | vs. Cardinals | 14% | -6.0 |
| Saints | vs. Panthers | 9% | -4.0 |
| Seahawks | vs. Broncos | 8% | -5.5 |
| Bears | vs. Titans | 5% | -4.0 |
| 49ers | vs. Jets | 5% | -4.0 |
As you can see, half of all entries are on either the Bengals or Bills.
If the goal is to simply win Week 1, it makes sense. But this is about long-term value and when taking a closer look at the Bengals expected value the rest of the season, this week affords a prime opportunity to play the contrarian.
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Week 1 provides a classic case study of risk-reward while taking into account future value.
Consider the Bengals and Seahawks.
The Bengals are Super Bowl contenders opening up at home against a Jacoby Brissett and a Patriots team expected to win four games. They open as the biggest favorite in Week 1 and for good reason.
And yet looking at their schedule, this is far from the last time they’ll be heavy favorites. In fact, PoolGenius has the Bengals with the fourth-highest future value. Burning the Bengals in Week 1 takes them off the board early which is the exact type of short-sighted play that could cost you later on. PoolGenius’s season NFL survivor grid lists Week 3, Week 9 and Week 17 as more valuable Cincinnati options. Remember, if your pool has 50+ entries, you’ll likely need to survive into the final month of the regular season to win it.
Contrast them with the Seahawks who open at home against the Broncos and have the third-shortest moneyline odds of any team in Week 1. But unlike the Bengals — one of the true survivor heavy hitters worth holding onto — the Seahawks rank just 21st in overall future expected value. In fact, according to PoolGenius’s weekly value, which combines the likelihood of winning along with pick popularity and future potential, Seattle affords more value than any other team in Week 1.
Of course, anything is possible and there are no guarantees. At least one team favored by 4.5 or more in Week 1 has lost in each of the last eight seasons which makes it highly likely that we’ll get a surprising result out of the gates.
Such is the nature of NFL survivor! It’s all about risk vs. reward.
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