There are no ifs, ands or buts about it — this was a weak running back draft class. But even with it not bringing too much excitement, there is still fantasy football value to be had here. Fantasy analysts Tera Roberts and Kate Magdziuk debate their favorite pick NOT named Jonathon Brooks.
After Jonathon Brooks, the second rookie running back typically drafted is often your standard direct backup: Blake Corum or Trey Benson. While those are fine picks, why stick with just fine? Go for the gusto and draft a running back who could be the RB1 of the most potent offense in the NFL — Jaylen Wright of the Miami Dolphins!
Wright may be the Dolphins’ current RB3, but it’s only a matter of time before he has the opportunity to step into true league-winning upside for a team that produced over 90 fantasy points in a single game at the running back position. That level of upside simply doesn’t exist on another team.
The opportunity gained when drafting Wright is two-fold. The Dolphins use a committee backfield, meaning Wright is a backup for both De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. There’s simply a higher chance he’ll see meaningful work. Both Achane and Mostert have struggled with injuries. Achane was active in just 11 games last season with only three of those games at a 60% or greater snap count. Achane’s usage in two of those games was extremely limited with 10% or fewer snaps.
Mostert has dealt with injury issues throughout his entire career. To his credit, he’s played the majority of games over the past two seasons, but he’s a 32-year-old back who’s missed significant time throughout his career. Last season was the first time Mostert had more than 200 carries.
Wright wasn’t a high-volume back in college, but he was a home run hitter with extreme speed — the perfect fit for Miami’s offense. In his final year at Tennessee, Wright had 137 carries for 1,013 yards, averaging a ridiculous 7.4 yards per carry. It’s very possible Wright becomes the lead back at some point this season in the league’s second-highest-scoring offense. Wright is the perfect league-winning stash. — Tera Roberts
I’m a really big fan of Arizona Cardinals running back Trey Benson. Like, really big. Like, he’s my RB12 in dynasty kind of big. However, that ranking is based on talent and the opportunity I project for him in the years to come … not necessarily as a rookie, barring an injury to James Conner (which, I admit, has been inevitable to this point in his career).
So, I’ve opted to pivot and highlight a rookie I think has one of the best chances to return standalone value in 2024 without an injury: Ray Davis.
Right now, Davis is going undrafted in most Yahoo Leagues despite a particularly strong showing in Weeks 1 and 2 of the preseason, virtually solidifying his spot as the RB2 in the Bills’ offense. He’s totaled 80 rushing yards on 15 carries in his limited sample size, with a 33% missed forced tackle rate and respectable 3.5 yards after contact per attempt, earning the top PFF rushing grade (82.3) of any player with 10 or more attempts in the preseason so far.
The fourth-round rookie is coming off a career-best 1,452 scrimmage yard, 21-touchdown campaign with the Kentucky Wildcats in 2023 and is an absolute bowling ball of an RB at just over 5-foot-8 and 211 pounds — a stark contrast to starting RB James Cook (5-foot-11, 190 pounds).
Luckily for Davis, the RB2 role for the Bills can be a particularly fruitful one, particularly when it comes to touchdown opportunities. Given Cook’s frame and his running style, which is more akin to a finesse-type than a bully-type, Buffalo has frequently looked to other options in short-yardage situations, particularly inside the five. Such attempts are among some of the most valuable for fantasy running backs given their proximity to the end zone and opportunities for touchdowns.
Just last season, the Bills gave RBs Latavius Murray, Damien Harris, Ty Johnson and Leonard Fournette a combined 36 carries in the red zone to Cook’s 33. That usage continued inside the five-yard line, where they combined for 16 carries compared to Cook’s five. It’s clear that they’re looking for a power option in these game situations, and it seems like Davis could be that guy.
With that role in the offense, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Davis posts a sneaky 800+ scrimmage yard, 10-touchdown campaign in his rookie season. — Kate Magdziuk
