… buy the “injury-prone” narrative. With rare exceptions, players are not injury-prone just because they’ve missed games in multiple seasons. Many NFL injuries are freak accidents, not the product of brittle bones or imbalanced hamstrings. Raheem Mostert had earned that label after eight seasons in the league … then he led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season. A few players that have struggled with injury in the past that I’m drafting in 2024 include Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, George Kittle, James Conner, Kyler Murray and Christian Watson (of the aforementioned imbalanced hammies). J.K. Dobbins is also an interesting name, but I’m more concerned about his recovery from past injuries than his ability to avoid new ones.

… be afraid to buck the trends. If you have the 1.01 and don’t take Christian McCaffrey, your league will probably laugh at you. And fair enough, he’s as foolproof a top pick as you’ll see. But consider this: Five straight consensus 1.01 picks have missed at least five games in the ensuing season, and the last guy to repeat as the RB1 overall was Priest Holmes … in 2002-2003. “Consensus” does not always mean “right” or even “best.” I wouldn’t shame anyone for taking Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall at 1.01, nor would I shame you for taking Jayden Daniels three rounds ahead of ADP or drafting Bills wideouts in the ninth, 10th and 11th rounds. If there’s one thing we know for sure in fantasy football, it’s that we don’t know a whole lot.

… fear bad offenses — in all cases. Ideally, you want to target the best players on the best offenses, but they’re in limited supply. Landing the high-volume anchors of iffy offenses can be an underrated consolation. In 2023, Breece Hall was the fantasy RB2 on one of the league’s worst offenses. As you may have guessed, three-down running backs are the best pieces to target on these teams — players like Rhamondre Stevenson, Javonte Williams and rookie Jonathon Brooks (when healthy) come to mind for 2024.

… avoid RBBCs (running back by committee). In last year’s version of this tip, I listed Miami, Detroit, Buffalo and Baltimore as strong teams to target despite unclear RB depth charts. Those teams ended up producing not four but six top-25 running backs, with both the Dolphins and Lions producing two. Running back by committee is the way of the modern NFL, and we have to evolve with it. For 2024, I’m once again targeting Miami and Detroit, while adding in the Chargers, Steelers, Bears, Titans, Bengals and Commanders as intriguing multi-back contenders.

… let “schedule difficulty” sway your decisions. In 2022, the Chiefs defense allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including a league-high 33 passing touchdowns. Last season, Kansas City allowed the eighth-fewest points to the position, with just 19 TDs. The NFL is ever-changing. Don’t let a player’s “strength of schedule” — whether enticing or daunting — significantly shift their place in your rankings.

… pass the positional cliffs without at least one player. At each position in fantasy, there’s a “cliff” beyond which you’re going to feel very uncomfortable taking your “first guy.” While there are still sleepers aplenty, confidence takes a nosedive past these marks. For me, they occur after RB20 (James Conner), WR22 (DK Metcalf), TE7 (Kyle Pitts) and QB12 (Jayden Daniels). If you can have one of each position by Round 7 or 8, you’ll leave your draft feeling much more stable.

… run from risk. Embrace it. If you’re happy to make your fantasy playoffs and lose in the first round, you can ignore this tip. If you’re gunning for the championship (as you should be), then listen up: This is a game of risks, and you have to take big shots to win big prizes. Whether it’s the sleeper you snag two rounds early or the blockbuster trade you make in Week 2, we’re not here to “play it safe.” Good luck, and as someone in that one young adult novel once said, “May the odds be ever in your favor.”