My biggest takeaway from predicting a 16-team SEC? The teams at the top are going to have slightly less gaudy records.
Unlike a year ago, when the SEC was average out of conference, I have the top 11 teams losing a combined one nonconference game. And yet, I only have one team, Georgia, finishing better than 10-2, and even the Dawgs are 11-1. They may win the national championship, but I can’t see them going unscathed when they play road games against Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss.
Perhaps it’s just how the schedules break this season, or perhaps with the additions of Texas and Oklahoma, going 12-0 or 11-1 is going to be that much more difficult.
Georgia: Spoiler alert: The Dawgs are my (admittedly unoriginal) national championship pick. At the two most important positions on the field, they have the potential first QB taken in next year’s NFL Draft, Carson Beck, and what should be a scary-good offensive line. As always, they’re loaded on defense.
Alabama: Kalen DeBoer’s first team may be better than Nick Saban’s last one, but the Tide might lose a couple of games due to facing Georgia, and playing Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma on the road. Expect Jalen Milroe to flourish in DeBoer’s offense, especially with the additions of receivers Germie Bernard (Washington) and five-star Ryan Williams.
Texas: Steve Sarkisian and Quinn Ewers proved this skeptic wrong last year. The Longhorns have so many talented receivers with Isaiah Bond (Alabama), Matthew Golden (Houston) and Silas Bolden (Oregon State). Texas’ biggest question is whether it can stop the run without stud interior D-linemen Byron Murphy II and T’Vondre Sweat.
Ole Miss: The talent level Lane Kiffin has built is undeniable. The O-line and receiving corps are loaded, and the defense got better with the additions of SEC starters like ends Walter Nolen (Texas A&M) and Princely Umanmielen (Florida) and linebacker Chris Paul Jr. (Arkansas). The caveat is that QB Jaxson Dart needs to be more consistent in big games.
Tennessee: The Vols are my dark horse to get to Atlanta. Josh Heupel’s offense had a ceiling with Joe Milton at the helm. If Nico Iamaleava is as good as advertised, the Vols could look a lot more like they did in 2022 (11-2) than in 2023 (9-4). James Pearce Jr. leads a strong defensive front, but a depleted secondary could be their undoing.
GO DEEPER
Stewart Mandel’s ACC predictions: Florida State, Miami on top with 3 new teams in race
Florida: Billy Napier would be well served to win the opener against Miami and build up a strong record over the first seven games, because no hot-seat coach should be faced with a final five of Georgia, at Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and at Florida State.
Arkansas: Sam Pittman needs to get his team back to a bowl game. On paper, I don’t love his chances. He’s banking on Bobby Petrino to mold quarterback Taylen Green (Boise State) into a star, but it might not be possible if the O-line doesn’t get a lot better.
Vanderbilt: I feel sorry for 8-27 coach Clark Lea. Vandy was already the hardest job in the SEC, and that was before name, image and likeness deals and the transfer portal made it nearly impossible. But it would be a heck of a story if New Mexico State imports OC Tim Beck and QB Diego Pavia save Lea’s job.
(Photos of Quinn Ewers, Carson Beck: Aaron E. Martinez /American-Statesman, Jasen Vinlove / USA Today)
