The NBA is close to finalizing new national television rights deals with NBC, ESPN, and Amazon worth $76 billion over the next 11 years, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. But the league isn’t stopping there, with the next decade of the league’s finances secured, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has league expansion on his mind.
During his annual NBA Finals news conference, Silver said of league expansion, “It’s not preordained that we will expand this time, but I know there’s an enormous amount of interest out there,” adding, “Yes, there are wealthy individuals, institutions that would like to invest and buy NBA teams, but I think it’s on the league to look holistically because there is the dilution, of course.”
If the NBA believes the available talent pool is stocked enough to support expansion, the next order of business is pinpointing the right markets. Silver stated a desire to expand into markets that would “grow the game,” and a long term goal of adding more franchises outside the United States. With those factors in mind, these are the five best cities for the next wave of NBA expansion.
One city that has consistently been linked to NBA expansion is Las Vegas. However, Vegas might not be quite as appealing as it used to be. First, by the time the NBA expands into the Sin City, it will have three men’s professional sports teams, and the Las Vegas Aces of the WNBA have a strong following. Vegas is the 29th largest American metro area by population, but it ranks 35th in total gross domestic product, 40th in market Neilsen ratings, and 141st in GDP per capita.
Vegas wouldn’t be a bad market to expand into, but it’d easily be the poorest market, based on total GDP and GDP per capita, with four major professional sports franchises. There’s also the issue of gambling. With Jontay Porter receiving a lifetime ban for betting on NBA games it has been revealed that he was coerced into such behavior to pay off gambling debts. The NBA has embraced gambling wholeheartedly, but they might be inclined to pump the breaks and create some distance between its players and the gambling capital of the country.
Mexico City is the largest metropolitan area in North America by a sizable margin. With nearly 25 million residents, it houses almost two million more people than the New York City metro area. While the NBA has had success with the G-League affiliate the Mexico City Capitanes and has floated the idea of expansion there, the city offers a nightmare set of logistical problems.
Mexico might share a massive border with the United States, but Mexico City is over 1,000 miles away from the nearest NBA city of San Antonio. Even Los Angeles, which is less than 150 miles from the Mexican border, is almost 2,500 miles away. When you throw in customs, the extensive travel, and the city’s extreme altitude of 7,349 feet above sea level (Denver flexes about 5,280 feet), it would almost assuredly become every NBA player’s least favorite road trip, and chances are teams would leave any star player with slight injury concerns at home or on the bench.
Louisville may be an NBA sleeping giant. The metropolitan area, GDP, and GDP per capita are comparable to New Orleans, but instead of being football-crazed like Louisiana, it’s long been a mecca for basketball. Many of the smallest NBA markets have the best-supported teams and it’s mainly because they’re the only show in town.
Louisville is one of the best markets for college basketball in the country and supported their ABA franchise, the Colonels, extremely well. Along with the Indiana Pacers, they were the only ABA franchise to never relocate or fold. Placing an NBA franchise in a city and state without any professional team should quickly create a rabid and passionate fanbase. Kentucky has long been a college basketball state, but with the NCAA becoming professionalized the NBA has a chance to make serious inroads among college basketball fans.
Louisville wouldn’t be the sexiest choice for NBA expansion, but it has a bunch of excellent factors working for it. It’s a city that loves basketball, has a history of supporting its professional basketball and built-in basketball brand from the ABA, and it’d be the only professional show in town.
San Jose is the most under-the-radar massive market in the country. The metropolitan area is only the 36th largest in the country, but it has the country’s 13th-highest total GDP and the second-highest GDP per capita. It is also a part of the San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose media market which is the 10th largest media market in the country based on Nielsen ratings.
Every other city in the top 15 of total GDP has had an NBA franchise and also currently houses an NFL and MLB franchise. San Jose only has the NHL’s San Jose Sharks and the MLS’s San Jose Earthquakes. With how far hockey and soccer lag behind basketball in popularity, San Jose is a massively wealthy market that could easily support an NBA franchise.
Getting the blessings of the Golden State Warriors will be an obstacle, but from an economic standpoint, the city is far more deserving of an NBA franchise than many markets. The New York and Los Angeles markets have two teams because those regions print money. With the tech boom of the past four decades, the northern California Bay Area has become one of the world’s richest regions and has more than enough money to support two NBA franchises.
On their own, Raleigh and Durham, North Carolina are not attractive options for NBA expansion, but when viewed as a single entity they offer just about everything needed to support an NBA franchise. Together the two metro areas house over two million people, are the 22nd largest media market, have the 27th largest GDP, and the 29th highest GDP per capita.
The two cities are about 25 miles apart, but that’s closer than Dallas is to Fort Worth. The region has also undergone and continues to see rapid population and economic development. However, while there’s a strong economic case for a team in the heart of North Carolina, the real reason has to do with the region’s insatiable appetite for college basketball.
Raleigh-Durham is home to two of the biggest college basketball brands and fanbases in the University of North Carolina and Duke. Unlike in some markets, you don’t need to build an interest in basketball, it’s already there. The Charlotte Hornets might be viewed as a reason to eschew the Carolinas for NBA expansion, but the Hornets were one of the best-supported teams in the league over their first ten years, finishing first in attendance eight times before decades of terrible ownership and relocations killed their buzz.
If Adam Silver wants the NBA to expand beyond the United States again, Montreal is a great place to start. It’s the second-largest city in Canada by population and total GDP. It’s comparable in population to Seattle, Washington, and in GDP to Baltimore, Maryland, two cities capable of supporting MLB and NFL franchises.
Montreal would also give the NBA its first French-speaking city and could help further grow the game in France, a country with a burgeoning talent pipeline. By placing a team in Montreal, the NBA would be growing the game further in Canada, but also likely in France. As a bonus, Montreal is a unique city that should hold some appeal to NBA players because of its nightlife and distinctly European style.
There are definitely American markets with a better case than Montreal for NBA expansion, but when it comes to growing the game beyond the United States, Montreal becomes a perfect candidate for expansion.
There is no question that Seattle is the best market for NBA expansion. It’s a massive market that is incredibly wealthy and has a fantastic basketball culture and history. To be honest, the Supersonics never should have been allowed to leave in the first place. Seattle is the 15th-largest metropolitan area by population, is the 13th-largest media market, has the ninth-largest total GDP, and fourth highest GDP per capita.
Seattle is the best American market without an NBA franchise by a mile and they’ll have no problem building a fan base with the storied history of the Supersonics to build on. In fact, the excitement around a team returning to the city would likely see fan interest and ticket sales be incredible from the get-go. If the NBA does expand, they have to add a team in Seattle. It has everything, and the NBA owes the city after they let a beloved team leave for Oklahoma City.
