The Celtics entered the 2024 NBA Playoffs with easily the best record in the Association (64-18), and they’re now 13-2 in the postseason after crushing the Mavericks 107-89 in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
Boston now sits as an overwhelming -450 favorite to win the championship, a bet that yields no value on the short-term futures market. However, plenty of series props do yield value.
Let’s take a look at the updated BetMGM series odds for the Celtics-Mavericks NBA Finals, as well as the best bets and top props for the remainder of the championship round best-of-seven.
Here’s the series moneyline, spread, and over/under for the 2024 NBA Finals following Boston’s Game 1 victory.
| Team | ML | ATS | O/U |
| Celtics | -450 | -2.5 (+120) | O 5.5 (-135) |
| Mavericks | +340 | +2.5 (-145) | U 5.5 (+110) |
The -450 odds translate to an implied winning probability of 81.8 percent. Bettors would need to put $500 at stake for the chance to win $111.11. That’s a lucky-sounding potential profit, but far too little value.
Let’s look at the NBA Finals series bets and props that still yield value following Game 1, and discuss why each of these bets warrants consideration on the short-term futures betting market.
MORE FINALS: Biggest takeaways from Game 1
The Celtics have been the best team in pro hoops since the start of the 2023-24 regular season, and their core rotation has been dominant on both sides of the floor all postseason. Their -450 series moneyline suggests they are an 8-2 favorite to win the Finals, yet bettors are still getting -175 odds on Boston to win the series by at least two games.
Kristaps Porzingis looks good great after a 40-day absence due to a calf injury, and Boston did well in Game 1 to contain Luka Doncic, stifle Kyrie Irving, limit the lob game and force other Mavs to hit shots. The Celtics look like a vastly superior team with a solid game plan and home-court advantage on a TD Garden floor they went 37-4 on this season and 7-2 this postseason.
The -175 seems juiced-up at first glance, but consider the fact that you’re getting paid out on three different series outcomes and it presents as a value wager. If the Celtics sweep, win the 4-1 gentleman’s sweep, or win in six, your -1.5 series bet cashes. That sure seems like a bet worth locking in before it shortens even more after generating some action this weekend.
MORE: Brown, Porzingis fuel Celtics in Game 1
In the offseason, millions of hoops fans rolled their eyes when Brown landed the most lucrative supermax contract in the history of the NBA. Now, after JB won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP and dominated both sides of the floor in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, Brown appears to be getting the last laugh.
While the national media has been bullish on the narrative that Jayson Tatum is the Celtics’ team MVP, the narrowed postseason media has already made it clear that it views Brown not just as JT’s equal — but maybe as a superior or at least more valuable player.
The Mavs are also probably game-planned for stopping Tatum far more than they strategized their Brown defense. Judging by Tatum’s six turnovers and 6-of-16 shooting performance, taking his scoring punch away was one of Dallas’s little Game 1 wins. But JB, who shot 58.3 percent and logged three steals and three big blocks, made up for his running mate’s issues.
The value is here, but it won’t be for much longer if Brown has another solid game on Sunday night. Tatum cares more about being a Finals champion than he does about being Finals MVP, and we can’t imagine passing up on Brown with +300 odds to bet Tatum as the +115 odds-on favorite.
MORE: Finals MVP odds, best bet, top sleeper
The Celtics have yet to lose a game on the road this postseason, and now with Porzingis back they’re healthier than they were in the first three rounds. With a containment strategy for Doncic, Irving looking like he’s haunted by the ghosts of Celtics past, and Boston looking as focused and motivated as ever, getting plus odds on either a sweep or a gentleman’s sweep seems like a good value opportunity.
Don’t bet the house on this one — you might be better off following the arbitrage strategy we will outline below — but if you want to keep it simple and just bet on these Finals wrapping up in four or five games, this is your best bet.
Now, let’s have some real fun. Fans of the Celtics and savvy bettors alike can take to the BetMGM exact series result market and assemble an arbitrage opportunity.
Not familiar with arbitraging? It’s simple. An arbitrage is basically betting on multiple different outcomes to almost assure yourself a net profit. In this case, we feel confident in our ability to bag a profit on the Celtics winning this series in four, five, or six.
Let’s take a look at the odds for all three potential series results:
Now, let’s break down how we can bet on all three of these outcomes and give ourselves a good chance of coming away with a profit.
If you put $50 on Celtics 4-0, $50 on Celtics 4-2, and $100 on Celtics 4-1, you would have a total of $200 invested in the series outcome market with a guaranteed net profit if any of those three outcomes come to fruition.
Here’s how you would fare if any of those three bets won:
For some casual bettors, this might seem like too much work to do for a $25-30 net profit, but a win is a win — and picking the Celtics to win in four, five, or six sure seems like a sure thing after Game 1.
But this at least gives you an idea of arbitrage strategies some sharp bettors like to employ to get good odds on maximizing end-of-series returns.
